Polexit - Poland to leave EU?
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272BHP

Original Poster:

6,705 posts

259 months

Saturday 9th October 2021
quotequote all
On BBC news today

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-58840076

Typically sinister quote from von der Leyen.

"Our utmost priority is to ensure the rights of Polish citizens are protected and that Polish citizens enjoy the benefits granted by membership of the European Union"

Countdown

47,380 posts

219 months

Saturday 9th October 2021
quotequote all
I doubt Poland would willingly choose to leave given how much they get from the EU in terms of grants. Basically this is France/Germany saying that they need to behave like a democracy if they want to keep their snout in the trough.

johnboy1975

8,500 posts

131 months

Saturday 9th October 2021
quotequote all
272BHP said:
On BBC news today

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-58840076

Typically sinister quote from von der Leyen.

"Our utmost priority is to ensure the rights of Polish citizens are protected and that Polish citizens enjoy the benefits granted by membership of the European Union"
Assuming they need a referendum?

Poles widely support EU membership

https://notesfrompoland.com/2021/08/03/support-in-...

For context, I saw a poll for 7% against in 2014, so opposition has increased 3 fold. But at 20%, miles away from leaving....

LargeRed

1,654 posts

71 months

Saturday 9th October 2021
quotequote all
I have a bet France or Germany will be the next BIG leavers.

deckster

9,631 posts

278 months

Saturday 9th October 2021
quotequote all
johnboy1975 said:
Assuming they need a referendum?

Poles widely support EU membership

https://notesfrompoland.com/2021/08/03/support-in-...

For context, I saw a poll for 7% against in 2014, so opposition has increased 3 fold. But at 20%, miles away from leaving....
Poles support membership because they get a buttload of money from the EU and they like being able to go and work anywhere they please. But they have also elected a leadership that is anti-women and anti-gay rights, and is pretty corrupt into the bargain. So pretty much they like the economic benefits but not so much into basic human and democratic rights.

I am massively simplifying things obviously, but the basic point is that they aren't going to vote to leave the EU any time soon. The EU is going to have to decide whether they are going to get tough and effectively throw them out if they don't shape up to EU rules, or roll over and let them continue to take the piss.



paulrockliffe

16,382 posts

250 months

Saturday 9th October 2021
quotequote all
That's such a bullst article by the BBC. Germany are in exactly the same legal disagreement with the EU.

The framing is that it's a disagreement between the Polish Government and the EU, but it is a ruling of the Polish Constitutional Court and the Government has not passed it's judgement into Law.

Flooble

5,738 posts

123 months

Saturday 9th October 2021
quotequote all
LargeRed said:
I have a bet France or Germany will be the next BIG leavers.
Is that a cunning use of "BIG" and you feel that the only two "BIG" countries are France and Germany?

On the basis that Spain is a net beneficiary and Italy kind of relies on the the Euro union to cope with its debt, I can sort of see the angle you are coming from, using the term "big". But I'd still like to hear the reasoning - I can't see either of those two ever leaving the EU, in many respects they ARE the EU.

TRIUMPHBULLET

711 posts

136 months

Saturday 9th October 2021
quotequote all
An interesting quandary for the EU.
Let Poland keep its judiciary as it is and let them stay in the EU with the possibility to show weakness that will be exxploited by others.
Or kick them out.
What are the implications for the EU with Poland out and vice versa?

FourWheelDrift

91,870 posts

307 months

Saturday 9th October 2021
quotequote all
TRIUMPHBULLET said:
What are the implications for the EU with Poland out and vice versa?
We get our plumbers back.

Vanden Saab

17,341 posts

97 months

Saturday 9th October 2021
quotequote all
FourWheelDrift said:
TRIUMPHBULLET said:
What are the implications for the EU with Poland out and vice versa?
We get our plumbers back.
clap

Dr Jekyll

23,820 posts

284 months

Saturday 9th October 2021
quotequote all
They won't kick them out, the purpose of the EU is to get bigger. All they could really do is stop the handouts, but it's because of the handouts that the Poles support EU membership.

Ivan stewart

2,792 posts

59 months

Saturday 9th October 2021
quotequote all
Dr Jekyll said:
They won't kick them out, the purpose of the EU is to get bigger. All they could really do is stop the handouts, but it's because of the handouts that the Poles support EU membership.

Looks like many things are happening at the moment the Polish economy rising, how long before the EU will expect a contribution or a least cut the handouts,Then the Irish caving into raising corporate taxes, yes I know it’s Bidens pet project but the EU was pushing the tax increase too ! Then we have the French election , with Le Pen ,how will the people vote as the membership makes less sense and more rules , troublesome times ahead for the EUSSR .

anonymous-user

77 months

Saturday 9th October 2021
quotequote all
Flooble said:
Is that a cunning use of "BIG" and you feel that the only two "BIG" countries are France and Germany?

On the basis that Spain is a net beneficiary and Italy kind of relies on the the Euro union to cope with its debt, I can sort of see the angle you are coming from, using the term "big". But I'd still like to hear the reasoning - I can't see either of those two ever leaving the EU, in many respects they ARE the EU.
The Euro has been a disaster for Italy ( and most of southern Europe).

They are fooked now though, they cant leave it without destroying 50% of national wealth due to capital flight to Germany.

Getragdogleg

9,863 posts

206 months

Saturday 9th October 2021
quotequote all
The EU only exists because France is afraid of Germany and Germany is afraid of itself.

They stay close to one another as a mutual comfort blanket and so far it's worked well, we've enjoyed a long period of peace and prosperity but, nothing lasts forever.

stongle

5,910 posts

185 months

Saturday 9th October 2021
quotequote all
jsf said:
Flooble said:
Is that a cunning use of "BIG" and you feel that the only two "BIG" countries are France and Germany?

On the basis that Spain is a net beneficiary and Italy kind of relies on the the Euro union to cope with its debt, I can sort of see the angle you are coming from, using the term "big". But I'd still like to hear the reasoning - I can't see either of those two ever leaving the EU, in many respects they ARE the EU.
The Euro has been a disaster for Italy ( and most of southern Europe).

They are fooked now though, they cant leave it without destroying 50% of national wealth due to capital flight to Germany.
OECD (booo hissss) analysis of Euro membership is a comedy oft missed by team remain. You don't need to understand Target2 imbalance to read its a problem for all bar Germany and few others.

The UK may even profit, had we joined. But, its an economic lever we have no control over. Not having it, remove an existential question we don't have to worry about. Intself, that has value.


Edited by stongle on Saturday 9th October 17:56

TwigtheWonderkid

47,955 posts

173 months

Saturday 9th October 2021
quotequote all
It's not Polexit, that's too clunky.

I'm suggesting Goland.

bloomen

9,420 posts

182 months

Saturday 9th October 2021
quotequote all
I expect for the next 20-30 years any time someone in Bulgaria goes public with their dislike of the Greek yoghurt they got posted from there the DM and friends will leap into action with 'this is IT. The house of cards is FALLING' headlines.

And then funnily enough... it won't.

Stuzza

141 posts

111 months

Saturday 9th October 2021
quotequote all
TwigtheWonderkid said:
It's not Polexit, that's too clunky.

I'm suggesting Goland.
Poleaxed?

hyphen

26,262 posts

113 months

Saturday 9th October 2021
quotequote all
If Poland goes, Hungary would probably follow. And Czech too perhaps.

These eastern states do not share some of the common western EU values e.g. migration, press freedom, judicial independence.

Getragdogleg

9,863 posts

206 months

Saturday 9th October 2021
quotequote all
anonymous said:
[redacted]
It's not that mad, look at how many times Germany got a bit military and had a go at its immediate neighbours.

I'm not saying we were better in terms of empire building, it's just after ww2 the German appetite for it dwindled and it was decided that political distraction would be less damaging on the whole.

They won the peace, which was wholly expected.