Predictions for AM by end of 2022
Discussion
I tend to think AML will be swallowed up by Daimler MB. Not really sure what that means for Stroll in that scenario, but I very much doubt he will come out of such a move badly, in financial terms at least. Imho it’s the only viable option in the long term, particularly looking at the balance sheet, and the impending electrification changes etc. Something very strange has been going on over the last few months. The share price has almost halved, significant people have left or are planning to do so. None of this is good or reassuring news, and there must be stuff going on that most people are not privy to. I include myself in that, as this is all my personal view and opinion.
Best Regards
Minglar
Best Regards
Minglar
Not an easy question oilit, but hold on, we do have 108 years of past performance to consider.
I would say there will be wonderful cars, great to drive, everyone involved will have a good time, but as for trying to make a profit, it has never worked up to now, even when the boss was a very successful business person.
Apart from that, I don't know where AM will be, by the end of 2022.
EDIT - Would Daimler want to continually prop up a wholly owned loss making subsidiary? Chrysler did not remain in their hands for long. There is of course the brand value, but the extra revenue from AML would be like a rounding adjustment in Daimler's accounts.
Edited by Jon39 on Thursday 16th December 09:51
I think a lot will hinge on this '2030 ban'. I'm not convinced it will happen, not in blanket terms anyway, perhaps there will be ways around it. If, for example, small manufacturers are given a concession then it would make sense for Daimler to purchase AML as the last avenue for them to push ICE sports cars.
Very wishful thinking, but remember Aston, Ferrari et al only still get away with producing these cars now as they're exempt from certain regulations due to the low output. If this isn't to be the case, I'm not sure that there's any point in Daimler buying them, it just isn't a viable business as has been shown time and time again. I'm not sure how they manage it, but they always seem able to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory (all that investment for the second century cars, which failed to hit any of the sales predictions).
Having said that, I really, really hope they continue. I decided, hopefully not foolishly, to buy my Vantage when the PCP ended. Now I'm no longer a 'new vantage user' as Jon pointed out previously, I have rather a large vested interest in them continuing as I'd quite like my warranty to remain valid and to use up the remainder of my 5 years free servicing! I probably wouldn't buy another new car from them (GPF's and mandatory speed limiters have all but ruined that for me across the board as mentioned in the other thread) but I'd love to see new cars and designs being introduced and them making truly beautiful cars again.
Very wishful thinking, but remember Aston, Ferrari et al only still get away with producing these cars now as they're exempt from certain regulations due to the low output. If this isn't to be the case, I'm not sure that there's any point in Daimler buying them, it just isn't a viable business as has been shown time and time again. I'm not sure how they manage it, but they always seem able to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory (all that investment for the second century cars, which failed to hit any of the sales predictions).
Having said that, I really, really hope they continue. I decided, hopefully not foolishly, to buy my Vantage when the PCP ended. Now I'm no longer a 'new vantage user' as Jon pointed out previously, I have rather a large vested interest in them continuing as I'd quite like my warranty to remain valid and to use up the remainder of my 5 years free servicing! I probably wouldn't buy another new car from them (GPF's and mandatory speed limiters have all but ruined that for me across the board as mentioned in the other thread) but I'd love to see new cars and designs being introduced and them making truly beautiful cars again.
Interesting, i agree about the exodus, and Stroll has never seemed as invested emotionally in public about AM the car company - his heart is clearly more aligned with F1.
I suspect a stock transaction with MB could be a possibility, if that doesn’t play out then i predict a major event e.g. close down AM Gaydon and just have Wales to strip costs if volume isn’t growing.
I also think most other retail investors from the ipo will be wiped out in 2022.
All conjecture on my side !
I suspect a stock transaction with MB could be a possibility, if that doesn’t play out then i predict a major event e.g. close down AM Gaydon and just have Wales to strip costs if volume isn’t growing.
I also think most other retail investors from the ipo will be wiped out in 2022.
All conjecture on my side !
Shrimpvende said:
.... Now I'm no longer a 'new vantage user' as Jon pointed out previously, I have rather a large vested interest in them continuing ....
Sorry if I cause you any offence, Shrimpvende.
Following the Nov/Dec 2019 PCP sales promotion, there was a topic on here. I began referring to owners of the new model, but then read mentions of a financial organisation being the owner.
I therefore started usung the word user, not in a derogatory way, but purely trying to be technically correct on that forum topic.
Glad you are enjoying your car and that you have decided to continue as an AM enthusiast.
I also very much like Mercedes engines. In fact I rely on them.
Cheers.
Jon39 said:
Sorry if I cause you any offence, Shrimpvende.
Following the Nov/Dec 2019 PCP sales promotion, there was a topic on here. I began referring to owners of the new model, but then read mentions of a financial organisation being the owner.
I therefore started usung the word user, not in a derogatory way, but purely trying to be technically correct on that forum topic.
Glad you are enjoying your car and that you have decided to continue as an AM enthusiast.
I also very much like Mercedes engines. In fact I rely on them.
Cheers.
To try and keep this post on topic, the future of AML did weigh on my mind somewhat when making the decision to buy it. No one wants to spend almost 6 figures on a car then the manufacturer go bust, potentially taking the dealership network and warranty with it. In the end, I guess it came down to thinking 'some other rich idiot will bail it out and rinse and repeat!'
I do wonder how much bearing the F1 team will have on things in the coming years. If they are more successful in the constructors' championship next year would there possibly be any money flowing the other way, back to AML?
To be honest, I always thought AML needed a "big brother" along the lines of Ford, so that the Tier 0.5/Tier 1 suppliers with the latest technology offerings could be encouraged/persuaded to engineer and supply the laughably small volumes that AML want - at the moment many do it only for the cachet, not for the money, and that's not a sustainable business model for either customer or supplier.
The current MB technology content in the cars would act as a "sickness pill" (not quite a "poison pill", but bad enough to cause serious consideration) to any other automotive group considering an acquisition and may be one reason why MB don't, and may never, supply the very latest versions of their tech to AML - for example, they would hardly want someone like BMW wandering at will through all of the technology in the latest MB electrical architecture and infotainment.
Ford were quite a positive and benign owner, and in retrospect it's a shame that problems in the USA caused them to dump the whole PAG. BMW have been quite a good steward of Rolls-Royce and Bentley have prospered as part of VAG (although years ago I had an interesting conversation with one of their execs about how the VAG group acquired and integrated other brands); I don't know how MB would treat AML but, to me at least, they seem almost the only game in town.
The current MB technology content in the cars would act as a "sickness pill" (not quite a "poison pill", but bad enough to cause serious consideration) to any other automotive group considering an acquisition and may be one reason why MB don't, and may never, supply the very latest versions of their tech to AML - for example, they would hardly want someone like BMW wandering at will through all of the technology in the latest MB electrical architecture and infotainment.
Ford were quite a positive and benign owner, and in retrospect it's a shame that problems in the USA caused them to dump the whole PAG. BMW have been quite a good steward of Rolls-Royce and Bentley have prospered as part of VAG (although years ago I had an interesting conversation with one of their execs about how the VAG group acquired and integrated other brands); I don't know how MB would treat AML but, to me at least, they seem almost the only game in town.
Shrimpvende said:
I think a lot will hinge on this '2030 ban'. I'm not convinced it will happen, not in blanket terms anyway, perhaps there will be ways around it. If, for example, small manufacturers are given a concession then it would make sense for Daimler to purchase AML as the last avenue for them to push ICE sports cars.
Very wishful thinking, but remember Aston, Ferrari et al only still get away with producing these cars now as they're exempt from certain regulations due to the low output. If this isn't to be the case, I'm not sure that there's any point in Daimler buying them, it just isn't a viable business as has been shown time and time again. I'm not sure how they manage it, but they always seem able to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory (all that investment for the second century cars, which failed to hit any of the sales predictions).
I hope that you’re right!Very wishful thinking, but remember Aston, Ferrari et al only still get away with producing these cars now as they're exempt from certain regulations due to the low output. If this isn't to be the case, I'm not sure that there's any point in Daimler buying them, it just isn't a viable business as has been shown time and time again. I'm not sure how they manage it, but they always seem able to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory (all that investment for the second century cars, which failed to hit any of the sales predictions).
My bet for 2023 is that Stroll will take over the AM F1 Team and the AM sports cars operation will go to Mercedes.
I see some signs for that scenario, upper management and engineers are leaving and getting replaced by Mercedes or Moers engineers network.
Operating under the Mecedes Brand ist the only way to survey the challenging times ahead.
Just think about the improved scale of sales when flagship Mercedes dealers are allowed to sell AM in their showrooms.
AML will get a worldwide dealer network for free and new sales will be generated as new customers of the brand might buy an AM with
a piece of mind that Mercedes dealerships can service the cars.
I see some signs for that scenario, upper management and engineers are leaving and getting replaced by Mercedes or Moers engineers network.
Operating under the Mecedes Brand ist the only way to survey the challenging times ahead.
Just think about the improved scale of sales when flagship Mercedes dealers are allowed to sell AM in their showrooms.
AML will get a worldwide dealer network for free and new sales will be generated as new customers of the brand might buy an AM with
a piece of mind that Mercedes dealerships can service the cars.
christof said:
My bet for 2023 is that Stroll will take over the AM F1 Team and the AM sports cars operation will go to Mercedes.
I see some signs for that scenario, upper management and engineers are leaving and getting replaced by Mercedes or Moers engineers network.
Operating under the Mecedes Brand ist the only way to survey the challenging times ahead.
Just think about the improved scale of sales when flagship Mercedes dealers are allowed to sell AM in their showrooms.
AML will get a worldwide dealer network for free and new sales will be generated as new customers of the brand might buy an AM with
a piece of mind that Mercedes dealerships can service the cars.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^ We have a winner! I see some signs for that scenario, upper management and engineers are leaving and getting replaced by Mercedes or Moers engineers network.
Operating under the Mecedes Brand ist the only way to survey the challenging times ahead.
Just think about the improved scale of sales when flagship Mercedes dealers are allowed to sell AM in their showrooms.
AML will get a worldwide dealer network for free and new sales will be generated as new customers of the brand might buy an AM with
a piece of mind that Mercedes dealerships can service the cars.
christof said:
My bet for 2023 is that Stroll will take over the AM F1 Team ......
.... with a piece of mind that Mercedes dealerships can service the cars.
.... with a piece of mind that Mercedes dealerships can service the cars.
Bookies don't like accepting bets on past events.
'piece of mind ....' ? Need to think about that one.
How will the M-B dealers explain to potential customers, that the AM in their showroom, with the old version MB dashboard electronics, is twice the price of the enormous, luxurious, superb quality, Mercedes-Benz S-Class, standing next to it?
Perhaps they could try saying, "It is hand made in England Sir. Very expensive to produce without having our robots".
Jon39 said:
How will the M-B dealers explain to potential customers, that the AM in their showroom, with the old version MB dashboard electronics, is twice the price of the enormous, luxurious, superb quality, Mercedes-Benz S-Class, standing next to it?
Regarding this matter I would advise to wait for the 2023 models. Heard that AM is currently working on a massive update of the infotainment system, which is exactly what Moers announced in his Car Magazine interview.As mentioned in another thread, 2023 will be the year we can see the first steps of Moers plan to reinvent the brand. Interesting times and I hope the best for AML.
Didn't AP and crew just reinvent the brand like 3 years ago?
Seems to be a trend.... but I truly wish him luck. Why anyone would buy new out of the current range in 2022 vs waiting into 2023MY for the large update is beyond me though. Some of their businesses decisions like the very limited numbers of V12V really make little sense.
The reality of them owing that much debt at 6-7% interest is also a HUGE hurdle to overcome unless MB step in.
Seems to be a trend.... but I truly wish him luck. Why anyone would buy new out of the current range in 2022 vs waiting into 2023MY for the large update is beyond me though. Some of their businesses decisions like the very limited numbers of V12V really make little sense.
The reality of them owing that much debt at 6-7% interest is also a HUGE hurdle to overcome unless MB step in.
Mercedes and Moers have precisely zero respect for what made Aston Martin unique and special, and precisely zero understanding of what Aston Martin was, is, or should be. No, Tobias, you can't make an Aston from the Mercedes parts bin. Lawrence, there's so much more to Aston Martin than the "brand." Ford was a beneficent owner. Mercedes won't be. No, I don't think any of this is easy. But the people (including Daimler) running the show don't understand Aston Martin at all. Doesn't bode well.
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