3 - 5 year used car purchase - future values?
Discussion
Looking to get out of our current lease and into something around 4 years old (think 2017 Audi A4 All Road).
My calculations show that buying used in the long term over the course of 5 years, would work out much cheaper than 2 x 3 year leases. However this is dependent on the used vehicle having a future value.
So crystal ball time - given the big push to electric will a diesel car actually be worth anything come 2026? Or will it just be scrapped, therefore making a used car purchase (rather than a lease) no longer cost effective.
My calculations show that buying used in the long term over the course of 5 years, would work out much cheaper than 2 x 3 year leases. However this is dependent on the used vehicle having a future value.
So crystal ball time - given the big push to electric will a diesel car actually be worth anything come 2026? Or will it just be scrapped, therefore making a used car purchase (rather than a lease) no longer cost effective.
I think probably the ULEZ zones will stop at Euro6 for diesels, because I think that will be enough to reverse the air pollution problems, and the govt won't want to be seen as punishing motorists. So a 2017 diesel should be ok.
But this isn't certain, so there is a level of political risk involved.
In terms of EVs, a 2017 diesel isn't competing against 2026 EVs, it's competing against ~2017 EVs, of which there are precious few, and fewer still you'd use for a long trip. In fact as an economical means of covering a long distance, it's probably one of the better options from all 2017 cars.
2012-vintage Allroads are about £10k now, however probably that reflects some level of inflation due to the current pandemic/chip shortage, so maybe at 2017 one would be £8-9k in 2026?
I’m not sure your calculations are correct - I think that most 3-5 year old cars are overpriced compared to approx 1 year ago and if/when the prices return to normal, you’ll struggle to see any sort of a return after 5 years.
I’m actually thinking of switching to leasing as I think it’s working out cheaper over the course than buying 3-5 years old, then adding on road tax, warranty, mot, corrective maintenance etc.
Come 2027, I don’t think it’ll be all downhill to electric and people won’t want to buy diesel but it you’ll probably have paid £3k-£4k more for your car and it might be worth less than you’ll be expecting when you decide to sell.
Just my opinion though and happy to be hear other thoughts.
I’m actually thinking of switching to leasing as I think it’s working out cheaper over the course than buying 3-5 years old, then adding on road tax, warranty, mot, corrective maintenance etc.
Come 2027, I don’t think it’ll be all downhill to electric and people won’t want to buy diesel but it you’ll probably have paid £3k-£4k more for your car and it might be worth less than you’ll be expecting when you decide to sell.
Just my opinion though and happy to be hear other thoughts.
Yes. Currently a 2012 A4 allroad is around £9-10k? So with EV change, finger in the air a 2017 will be £7-8k in 2026.
Will be far from scrap, assuming it's been looked after.
That isn't the question. The question is what will it be worth in 2026. If charging tech moves forward leaps and bounds or battery tech moves forward leaps and bounds, or Elon announces a new FSD Board that the 3LR can't have retrofitted,or new senors and cameras, then the 3LR will adjust accordingly.
Will be far from scrap, assuming it's been looked after.
LordFlathead said:
Tesla Model 3 LR. seems to lose little money. Bought for £50,100 a year ago still fetching £48,500.
That isn't the question. The question is what will it be worth in 2026. If charging tech moves forward leaps and bounds or battery tech moves forward leaps and bounds, or Elon announces a new FSD Board that the 3LR can't have retrofitted,or new senors and cameras, then the 3LR will adjust accordingly.
Edited by hyphen on Wednesday 29th December 22:43
If your worried about future values I would suggest sticking with a lease for another 2 years. Fixed monthlies so you know the exact cost over the next 2 years. By then we should be back to a kind of normality with new vehicle production and supply.
Used vehicle prices are inflated at the minute due to supply issues so you will be paying a premium of 20% or more, if we revert back to norms that could mean with normal depreciation in 2 years a fall of 40% or more from what you pay today. EVs and the ICE bans in 2030 are unknowns, some say they will heavily impact prices others say they will increase the price of ICE vehicles as you will be unable to buy new.
Used vehicle prices are inflated at the minute due to supply issues so you will be paying a premium of 20% or more, if we revert back to norms that could mean with normal depreciation in 2 years a fall of 40% or more from what you pay today. EVs and the ICE bans in 2030 are unknowns, some say they will heavily impact prices others say they will increase the price of ICE vehicles as you will be unable to buy new.
I want to get my wife out of her lease (2008 GT £250 all in inc insurance) for a car we can use as a caravan tower, was thinking 320d or X3 circa 2016/2017 but the prices are just too much to justify at present so going to put the caravan back 12 months or so and see how the land lies.
Been out the general leasing for a year or so now but seems like they aren't horrendously increased especially if you can drop on a stock car.
Been out the general leasing for a year or so now but seems like they aren't horrendously increased especially if you can drop on a stock car.
jonwm said:
I want to get my wife out of her lease (2008 GT £250 all in inc insurance) for a car we can use as a caravan tower, was thinking 320d or X3 circa 2016/2017 but the prices are just too much to justify at present so going to put the caravan back 12 months or so and see how the land lies.
Been out the general leasing for a year or so now but seems like they aren't horrendously increased especially if you can drop on a stock car.
Buy one of these:Been out the general leasing for a year or so now but seems like they aren't horrendously increased especially if you can drop on a stock car.
It'll tow you caravan with ease prices are still sensible & you still bag a whole lot of car for your cash:
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202201061...
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202107074...
georgefreeman918 said:
Looking to get out of our current lease and into something around 4 years old (think 2017 Audi A4 All Road).
My calculations show that buying used in the long term over the course of 5 years, would work out much cheaper than 2 x 3 year leases. However this is dependent on the used vehicle having a future value.
So crystal ball time - given the big push to electric will a diesel car actually be worth anything come 2026? Or will it just be scrapped, therefore making a used car purchase (rather than a lease) no longer cost effective.
Expect to lose around 2k per year in depreciation obviously that'll be dependent on usage spec etc but as a rough guide you'll be around that figure.My calculations show that buying used in the long term over the course of 5 years, would work out much cheaper than 2 x 3 year leases. However this is dependent on the used vehicle having a future value.
So crystal ball time - given the big push to electric will a diesel car actually be worth anything come 2026? Or will it just be scrapped, therefore making a used car purchase (rather than a lease) no longer cost effective.
Edited by ZX10R NIN on Friday 7th January 17:22
ZX10R NIN said:
Expect to lose around 1k per year in depreciation obviously that'll be dependent on usage spec etc but as a rough guide you'll be around that figure.
I don't see how it could be that little?The median price of 2017 Audi A4 Allroads on AT is approx £25k, so that's the purchase price at four years old
The median price of 2012 Audi A4 Allroads is about £10k, so that's the residual value at nine years old
So depreciation between years 4 and 9 is £15k, over five years I make that £3k a year, not £1k. Am I missing something here?
samoht said:
I don't see how it could be that little?
The median price of 2017 Audi A4 Allroads on AT is approx £25k, so that's the purchase price at four years old
The median price of 2012 Audi A4 Allroads is about £10k, so that's the residual value at nine years old
So depreciation between years 4 and 9 is £15k, over five years I make that £3k a year, not £1k. Am I missing something here?
You're not missing anything. £3k is about right for an average mileage and particularly if you buy from the trade as obviously you pay for the dealer's spread which you need to amortise over the period of ownership.The median price of 2017 Audi A4 Allroads on AT is approx £25k, so that's the purchase price at four years old
The median price of 2012 Audi A4 Allroads is about £10k, so that's the residual value at nine years old
So depreciation between years 4 and 9 is £15k, over five years I make that £3k a year, not £1k. Am I missing something here?
samoht said:
I don't see how it could be that little?
The median price of 2017 Audi A4 Allroads on AT is approx £25k, so that's the purchase price at four years old
The median price of 2012 Audi A4 Allroads is about £10k, so that's the residual value at nine years old
So depreciation between years 4 and 9 is £15k, over five years I make that £3k a year, not £1k. Am I missing something here?
I'd hit the wrong number (meant to hit 2) I just had a quick & saw them for 2017 19-24k 2012 11.5-14k, it's edited now The median price of 2017 Audi A4 Allroads on AT is approx £25k, so that's the purchase price at four years old
The median price of 2012 Audi A4 Allroads is about £10k, so that's the residual value at nine years old
So depreciation between years 4 and 9 is £15k, over five years I make that £3k a year, not £1k. Am I missing something here?
Gassing Station | Car Buying | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff