Kazakhstan - unrest and Russian help

[Ian Geary]

This is in the news today
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-59900037

The Kazakhstan government have asked Russia for military help to tackle armed unrest

A number of security services had been killed, and the country is in a security pact with Russia and a number of ex Soviet countries.


Kazakhstan is obviously further away than Ukraine, so less likely to generate EU noise

But it does have the veneer of legitimately than Russia's recent incursions into Georgia, Crimea etc.

I guess it highlights one key difference between NATO and Russia - NATO wouldn't be used to quell internal unrest, only external threats I believe.

[Electro1980]

The key difference is that Russia is a country and NATO is a strategic alliance. NATO would not get involved in internal unrest as that’s not its job. Every single NATO member could, if they wanted, but just not under the NATO banner.

[andyA700]

I sometimes wonder if a lot of people are totally ignorant of the relations which Russia has with neighbouring countries. Why wouldn't Russia help to stabilise Kazakhstan, they have the largest space site in the World based at Baikonur, even NASA have to ask permission to use it from time to time.

[Carl_Manchester]

this looks like it is starting to escalate.

[shocks]

Has all the hallmarks of return to the late 50's and 60's ala Hungry / Czech expansion by USSR - similar pretexts of "help" albeit sans-communism backdrop.

Will be interesting to see where this leads and do wonder between Georgian, Crimea and potential future Ukraine actions this heralds a rebirth of new authoritarian era in the former Soviet bloc being reborn.

[Triumph Man]

Well they do say it's the greatest country in the world, and that all others are run by little girls.

[RichFN2]

Putin will want this nipped in the bud pronto, Kazakhstan is a very wealthy country compared to other former USSR republics and the protests have gone from fuel prices to general ant government protests. If it can happen there then it can happen in Russia.

There has been several army depots raided of ammunition etc and police officers found beheaded, not only have you got protesters armed with guns and grenades but suspected terrorist cells joining in. Add in the fact the Kazakh leader has instructed troops to shoot without warning and this has the potential to get very ugly.

[Earthdweller]

Isn’t it quite a big oil producer and also rare earth minerals ?

If it spreads to the other Stan’s or becomes prolonged it could affect us here with increasing oil prices ?

[towser44]

Earthdweller said:

Isn’t it quite a big oil producer and also rare earth minerals ?

If it spreads to the other Stan’s or becomes prolonged it could affect us here with increasing oil prices ?

3% of global oil reserves and important coal and gas sectors according to the Beeb. Massive country though, the size of Western Europe!

[Unknown_User]

Russian paratroopers to quell a civilian riot, what could possibly go wrong?

[jeff m]

You cannot compare Kazakhstan to Ukraine, Kazakhstan is a rich country whereas Ukraine is a corrupt cesspit where money disappears into a black hole.
Neither country will hesitate to use extreme force on its citizens. Ukraine used heavy artillery on apartment buildings until Russia said stop or else.
I've no doubt Kazatstan would like to do similar.
The difference is.....it appears they want either Russia's blessing or assistance first. Sneaky.

[Electro1980]

jeff m said:

You cannot compare Kazakhstan to Ukraine, Kazakhstan is a rich country whereas Ukraine is a corrupt cesspit where money disappears into a black hole.
Neither country will hesitate to use extreme force on its citizens. Ukraine used heavy artillery on apartment buildings until Russia said stop or else.
I've no doubt Kazatstan would like to do similar.
The difference is.....it appears they want either Russia's blessing or assistance first. Sneaky.

I suggest getting news from somewhere other than RT.

[dudleybloke]

Kazakhstan is a kleptocracy.

[andy_s]

Apropos of nothing really as 'circumstances alter cases', but nonetheless at junctures such as these it's always a good reminder to see to what extent a country up in arms about external interference in their own domestic affairs interfere in the domestic affairs of others...

Russia's Foreign Ministry described the situation in Kazakhstan as "an attempt to undermine the security and integrity of the state by force, using trained and organized armed formations, that is inspired from the outside." ... -> https://www.ned.org/region/eurasia/kazakhstan-2020... thus giving ostensive reasoning to CSTO involvement...?

Iatrogenics all the way down.

[Ivo Shandor]

I can't quite recall the details, but I think I watched a youtube video last month which predicted two wars Russia would be involved in, one in the Ukraine and one in, I think, Kazakhstan. Basically Russia is going to help ferment unrest, then the friendly locals will ask the Russians in, and Russia will sit there nicely in de facto control of the areas they are 'helping.'

[anonymous-user]

andyA700 said:

I sometimes wonder if a lot of people are totally ignorant of the relations which Russia has with neighbouring countries. Why wouldn't Russia help to stabilise Kazakhstan, they have the largest space site in the World based at Baikonur, even NASA have to ask permission to use it from time to time.

"From time to time" is an understatement I think, was Baikonur not the only site NASA used for crewed space launches for most of the last decade?

[ben_h100]

Ivo Shandor said:

I can't quite recall the details, but I think I watched a youtube video last month which predicted two wars Russia would be involved in, one in the Ukraine and one in, I think, Kazakhstan. Basically Russia is going to help ferment unrest, then the friendly locals will ask the Russians in, and Russia will sit there nicely in de facto control of the areas they are 'helping.'

That's how I understand it.

[ATG]

Electro1980 said:

jeff m said:

You cannot compare Kazakhstan to Ukraine, Kazakhstan is a rich country whereas Ukraine is a corrupt cesspit where money disappears into a black hole.
Neither country will hesitate to use extreme force on its citizens. Ukraine used heavy artillery on apartment buildings until Russia said stop or else.
I've no doubt Kazatstan would like to do similar.
The difference is.....it appears they want either Russia's blessing or assistance first. Sneaky.

I suggest getting news from somewhere other than RT.

Indeed. That is an utterly ludicrous caricature of Ukraine. About the only thing the two countries have in common is that both sought to shirk Russian influence and assert their independence. Ukraine was/is a pretty corrupt and incompetent democracy. Kazakhstan is a corrupt and incompetent kleptocratic dictatorship.

Having to turn to the Russians for help is a massive kick in the balls for the Khazakh regime, and Putin will be pissing himself laughing.

[andy_s]

ben_h100 said:

Ivo Shandor said:

I can't quite recall the details, but I think I watched a youtube video last month which predicted two wars Russia would be involved in, one in the Ukraine and one in, I think, Kazakhstan. Basically Russia is going to help ferment unrest, then the friendly locals will ask the Russians in, and Russia will sit there nicely in de facto control of the areas they are 'helping.'

That's how I understand it.

lvl1
I guess the 'red team' question is why would Russia do that a week from critical talks and heightened tensions in Ukraine where they are already committing 200,000 troops, especially when their whole missile/space/nuclear assets depend on Kazakhstan's stability? ->

lvl2
From a Sopranos point of view, it could be seen as more 'beneficial' that the US spark something in Kazakhstan to distract Russia from the Ukraine build up [see NED link above] it's the big 'hybrid' assertion from Moscow [whether true, half-true or false] but either way only stokes ostensive paranoia, gives just cause to deploy CSTO and perhaps therefore as a bloc strengthens resolve around Ukraine ->

lvl3
Therefore maybe Russia is really clever and can blame real-yet-unreal western subversion - [even if NED is an excuse-nothingburger] in preparation for proper occupation of both Kazakhstan and Ukraine with popular and CSTO support and some 'legal' justification.

BTW, I'm asserting nothing, Putin is involved and I can barely play 2-D chess, let alone 4-D...happy to be corrected/edumacated/un-overthinked.

Edited by andy_s on Friday 7th January 23:36

[RichFN2]

andy_s said:

lvl3
Therefore maybe Russia is really clever and can blame real-yet-unreal western subversion - [even if NED is an excuse-nothingburger] in preparation for proper occupation of both Kazakhstan and Ukraine with popular support and some 'legal' justification.

If Putin is able to recapture one of the wealthy former USSR states such as Kazakhstan that would be a huge benefit to Russia