Has covid enabled Russia to go to war?
Discussion
Given the relationship between Russia and China, and the fact that Russia has been building up its forces and strategies over the last two to three years, using subs to trace comms and data cables in the sea, testing the reaction time of our military services by entering our air and sea space….is it possible that Covid has proved sufficient distraction for the world to drop their guard on what Putin has been up to?
Is it possible that China deliberately released Coronavirus to cause mayhem to enable them to dominate markets and enable their Russian allies to go to war???
Is it possible that China deliberately released Coronavirus to cause mayhem to enable them to dominate markets and enable their Russian allies to go to war???
Russia has 100k+ cases per day and many deaths per day, they are one of the worst at the moment with their special pals Germany and also South Korea who are high right now. - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/...
It has to be true that covid has played a part in the timing from Russia’s point of view but I think you’ll struggle to convince people that covid was deliberate for this reason.
But to add to the background reasons / thought process as to why now.
I think there are two other significant things that have influenced Putin in this.
1) seeing the west pull out of Afghanistan in the way that we did - when this happened people were already saying it would have the effect of empowering crazies around the world and it did.
2) Trump not getting in for a second term. (I know trump has been saying some mad things re Ukraine himself) but do we really think Putin would be doing what he is doing if it was trump in the white house - no.
I’m a Trump hater but I can see that the effect of these (both on Biden) are what has enabled Putin….
But to add to the background reasons / thought process as to why now.
I think there are two other significant things that have influenced Putin in this.
1) seeing the west pull out of Afghanistan in the way that we did - when this happened people were already saying it would have the effect of empowering crazies around the world and it did.
2) Trump not getting in for a second term. (I know trump has been saying some mad things re Ukraine himself) but do we really think Putin would be doing what he is doing if it was trump in the white house - no.
I’m a Trump hater but I can see that the effect of these (both on Biden) are what has enabled Putin….
W12GT said:
Given the relationship between Russia and China
And what relationship would that be? Lots of people seem to be assuming that Russia and China are much closer than they are. Just because they were both communist states doesn’t mean they are plotting together now. They don’t have the relationship people think they do. fat80b said:
2) Trump not getting in for a second term. (I know trump has been saying some mad things re Ukraine himself) but do we really think Putin would be doing what he is doing if it was trump in the white house - no.
Trump did nothing about Crimea during his time in power, and this war has been going on since 2014. What makes you think Trump would do anything different?There is fairly strong circumstantial evidence Covid presented an opportunity for Putin. But its not quite per the OP.
The impact of Covid on economies, particularly EU has weakened our resolve to throw around sanctions willy-nilly. Covid has added significant scarring to economies, and Putin knows many EU states have highish levels of dependency on Russia for economic wellbeing.
That was always going to sow division and weaken sanctions effect.
It really was a timing issue. All he had to do was wait for the West's resolve to take economic pain themselves and move in.
This has been a long time coming, the Russian economy has been sanction proofing itself since 2014 (not the last couple of years). They've eating a huge amount of low growth to build up reserves and reduce their dependency on international debt. They have half a trillion of CCY buffer that will outlast a lot of Western resolve. The comments from Italy, Austria and even Germany show how fragile our system is.
I don't think there is a Sino-Russian pact here (despite reading a lot of Tom Clancy in my youth). Its all just Putin and Co playing global geopolitical chess. And he probably isn't that bad at it. He'd made a number if decision based on probability of outcome, some are going his way (lack of resolve on economic sanctions), others possibly not. By now some Russian general should jave his feet up on Zelenskyy's desk drinking his vodka and enjoying his ho's. The fact they are NOT is a bit of an issue.
The impact of Covid on economies, particularly EU has weakened our resolve to throw around sanctions willy-nilly. Covid has added significant scarring to economies, and Putin knows many EU states have highish levels of dependency on Russia for economic wellbeing.
That was always going to sow division and weaken sanctions effect.
It really was a timing issue. All he had to do was wait for the West's resolve to take economic pain themselves and move in.
This has been a long time coming, the Russian economy has been sanction proofing itself since 2014 (not the last couple of years). They've eating a huge amount of low growth to build up reserves and reduce their dependency on international debt. They have half a trillion of CCY buffer that will outlast a lot of Western resolve. The comments from Italy, Austria and even Germany show how fragile our system is.
I don't think there is a Sino-Russian pact here (despite reading a lot of Tom Clancy in my youth). Its all just Putin and Co playing global geopolitical chess. And he probably isn't that bad at it. He'd made a number if decision based on probability of outcome, some are going his way (lack of resolve on economic sanctions), others possibly not. By now some Russian general should jave his feet up on Zelenskyy's desk drinking his vodka and enjoying his ho's. The fact they are NOT is a bit of an issue.
Electro1980 said:
W12GT said:
Given the relationship between Russia and China
And what relationship would that be? Lots of people seem to be assuming that Russia and China are much closer than they are. Just because they were both communist states doesn’t mean they are plotting together now. They don’t have the relationship people think they do. However, the cynical side of me says this may also have been a ploy by China to show Russia that if they don’t support them over Taiwan then China won’t support them in their war plans……I know this sounds far fetched l but very little surprises me these days with the game plans that go on.
stongle said:
By now some Russian general should jave his feet up on Zelenskyy's desk drinking his vodka and enjoying his ho's. The fact they are NOT is a bit of an issue.
I agree with that, I think Putin underestimated Ukraines resolve and if he isn't fast he will end up in a nasty urban guerilla Warfare situation if he hasn't already in Kiev and it will be extremely difficult to make any further progress without significant losses. stongle said:
There is fairly strong circumstantial evidence Covid presented an opportunity for Putin. But its not quite per the OP.
The impact of Covid on economies, particularly EU has weakened our resolve to throw around sanctions willy-nilly. Covid has added significant scarring to economies, and Putin knows many EU states have highish levels of dependency on Russia for economic wellbeing.
That was always going to sow division and weaken sanctions effect.
It really was a timing issue. All he had to do was wait for the West's resolve to take economic pain themselves and move in.
This has been a long time coming, the Russian economy has been sanction proofing itself since 2014 (not the last couple of years). They've eating a huge amount of low growth to build up reserves and reduce their dependency on international debt. They have half a trillion of CCY buffer that will outlast a lot of Western resolve. The comments from Italy, Austria and even Germany show how fragile our system is.
I don't think there is a Sino-Russian pact here (despite reading a lot of Tom Clancy in my youth). Its all just Putin and Co playing global geopolitical chess. And he probably isn't that bad at it. He'd made a number if decision based on probability of outcome, some are going his way (lack of resolve on economic sanctions), others possibly not. By now some Russian general should jave his feet up on Zelenskyy's desk drinking his vodka and enjoying his ho's. The fact they are NOT is a bit of an issue.
I have to strongly disagree with your sentiments, the UK spent £460 billion just on its covid response alone. America's spending ability is in the trillions, Germany too and most of Europe. They are all very rich countries despite their massive debt, they have high tech industry and financial services that Russia can only dream of. The Russian reserves are just a small puddle in a giant ocean, the average wage in Russia is just $6k their soldiers get $500 dollars a month, 30% of Russian don't even have a flushing toilet.The impact of Covid on economies, particularly EU has weakened our resolve to throw around sanctions willy-nilly. Covid has added significant scarring to economies, and Putin knows many EU states have highish levels of dependency on Russia for economic wellbeing.
That was always going to sow division and weaken sanctions effect.
It really was a timing issue. All he had to do was wait for the West's resolve to take economic pain themselves and move in.
This has been a long time coming, the Russian economy has been sanction proofing itself since 2014 (not the last couple of years). They've eating a huge amount of low growth to build up reserves and reduce their dependency on international debt. They have half a trillion of CCY buffer that will outlast a lot of Western resolve. The comments from Italy, Austria and even Germany show how fragile our system is.
I don't think there is a Sino-Russian pact here (despite reading a lot of Tom Clancy in my youth). Its all just Putin and Co playing global geopolitical chess. And he probably isn't that bad at it. He'd made a number if decision based on probability of outcome, some are going his way (lack of resolve on economic sanctions), others possibly not. By now some Russian general should jave his feet up on Zelenskyy's desk drinking his vodka and enjoying his ho's. The fact they are NOT is a bit of an issue.
Putin has used pure arrogance to propigate the view that Russia is strong and has all this great might of Stalins WW2 pushback, not true at all. Putin is just a mafia boss of a well run billionaire club that have literally robbed ordinary Russians of any form of quality of life. They rank in the lowest of nearly all quality of life indexes.
So Putin this time has over stepped the mark, he isn't clever or strong, he is dillusional and losing his power and grip. This is a last gasp at trying to make himself look strong and it's back firing on him massively, just like Hitler in his bunker but on a much smaller scale, see how the world is isolating Russia and they're set to become much poorer. Their armed forces are looking quite pathetic to the rest of the world. He's banding around calling Ukraine leadership drugged up neo-nazis, telling the Ukranian army to surrender, this is the mighty Russia taking on grannies with NLAW's anti armour weapons.
Putin is screwed and so is Russia, arrogance and severe narcissim like all dictators, when his own army generals say enough and the people protest, Putin will be offed and go down in history as one of the worst, most ridiculous dictators in recent times. His shaking pathetic last interview tells you everything, he's totally screwed up and has to play this one out until his last breath, good riddance to him.
Skyrocket21 said:
I have to strongly disagree with your sentiments, the UK spent £460 billion just on its covid response alone. America's spending ability is in the trillions, Germany too and most of Europe. They are all very rich countries despite their massive debt, they have high tech industry and financial services that Russia can only dream of. The Russian reserves are just a small puddle in a giant ocean, the average wage in Russia is just $6k their soldiers get $500 dollars a month, 30% of Russian don't even have a flushing toilet.
Not sure how you are disagreeingYes we spent that and as a result have virtually bankrupted ourselves and have rampant inflation. This has weakened our ability to deter Russia through sanctions because said sanctions would create yet more expenses and inflation if implemented on the things that matter.
The west has brought this on itself through the lack of any proper planning for energy security and trying to appease the green lobby.
Skyrocket21 said:
I have to strongly disagree with your sentiments, the UK spent £460 billion just on its covid response alone. America's spending ability is in the trillions, Germany too and most of Europe. They are all very rich countries despite their massive debt, they have high tech industry and financial services that Russia can only dream of. The Russian reserves are just a small puddle in a giant ocean, the average wage in Russia is just $6k their soldiers get $500 dollars a month, 30% of Russian don't even have a flushing toilet.
None of which actually matters. Unfortunately. Whatever your personal opinion of Putin, and it appears you have a strong one - our financial eco-system is fragile (worsened during Covid). There isn't the resolve to hold Putin's feet to the financial fire GIVEN the economic spill over. If we take them out of SWIFT, they will technically default on their debt - held outside Russia. That "may" have a very large and dangerous ripple out effect, as no one ACTUALLY know's how much exposure people re carrying to them. Boris pushing the kick em out of SWIFT line is because the UK and US is fairly well insulated. It won't be much of a problem here. It obviously is in Europe (or they don't know, that's why to date they have pushed back). If Europe does have an issue (read IF), the spill over contagion is massive - it's bailouts and law changes. It's probably a big part of his gamble. IF there is a ripple out contagion event, $460bn of Covid spent is peanuts (which has to be paid back by you, me and everyone). Western governments spent 10trillion of the back of the Global Financial Crisis - precipitated because no one understood how much exposure some banks had to shonky mortgage debt. That 10 trillion cost is many times the magnitude of Lehman's problems - there are real big number risk consequences.And the reason why Russian army wages are $500 a month or no they have toilet issues IS because Putin was sanction proofing his economy since 2014 to weather EXACTLY this predicable response. They had stagnant growth as they built up huge reserves and remove dependency on external debt markets. That level of long term planning indicates he's following a plan...
What my feeling are to Putin are mute (evil and rationale may not be mutually exclusive), the comment is the predicament we or the West find ourselves in.
As for getting rid of Putin, life after Putin etc; it's probably NOT a good idea to make Russia a pariah state. The West has shown themselves absolutely useless at regime change - we want Putin gone; but not create future problems for ourselves.
Edited by stongle on Saturday 26th February 11:37
stongle said:
Skyrocket21 said:
I have to strongly disagree with your sentiments, the UK spent £460 billion just on its covid response alone. America's spending ability is in the trillions, Germany too and most of Europe. They are all very rich countries despite their massive debt, they have high tech industry and financial services that Russia can only dream of. The Russian reserves are just a small puddle in a giant ocean, the average wage in Russia is just $6k their soldiers get $500 dollars a month, 30% of Russian don't even have a flushing toilet.
None of which actually matters. Unfortunately. Whatever your personal opinion of Putin, and it appears you have a strong one - our financial eco-system is fragile (worsened during Covid). There isn't the resolve to hold Putin's feet to the financial fire GIVEN the economic spill over. If we take them out of SWIFT, they will technically default on their debt - held outside Russia. That "may" have a very large and dangerous ripple out effect, as no one ACTUALLY know's how much exposure people re carrying to them. Boris pushing the kick em out of SWIFT line is because the UK and US is fairly well insulated. It won't be much of a problem here. It obviously is in Europe (or they don't know, that's why to date they have pushed back). If Europe does have an issue (read IF), the spill over contagion is massive - it's bailouts and law changes. It's probably a big part of his gamble. IF there is a ripple out contagion event, $460bn of Covid spent is peanuts (which has to be paid back by you, me and everyone). Western governments spent 10trillion of the back of the Global Financial Crisis - precipitated because no one understood how much exposure some banks had to shonky mortgage debt. That 10 trillion cost is many times the magnitude of Lehman's problems - there are real big number risk consequences.And the reason why Russian army wages are $500 a month or no they have toilet issues IS because Putin was sanction proofing his economy since 2014 to weather EXACTLY this predicable response. They had stagnant growth as they built up huge reserves and remove dependency on external debt markets. That level of long term planning indicates he's following a plan...
What my feeling are to Putin are mute (evil and rationale may not be mutually exclusive), the comment is the predicament we or the West find ourselves in.
As for getting rid of Putin, life after Putin etc; it's probably NOT a good idea to make Russia a pariah state. The West has shown themselves absolutely useless at regime change - we want Putin gone; but not create future problems for ourselves.
Edited by stongle on Saturday 26th February 11:37
Are you actually afraid for your own pocket, have you not seen the consquences of WW2 on the United Kingdom and thereafter? But we recovered, and Russia is puny on the world stage, if this was China you were talking about I would agree, everyone in the UK can weather some price increases on gas, if they can't then we'll just have to burn wood or donate to the poorest.
Russia isn't poor because Putin has kept back some wealth, this has been going on for decades, he's stolen half a trillion dollars to himself and friends in their own pockets.
You're scared of replacing Putin, you don't think Russians like a real democracy do you remember Yeltsin and Gorbachev? Even Khrushchev. Putin has poisoned or imprisoned any real truthful opponents, to his autocracy, Alexei Navalny?
My sentiments of Putin are not strong, they are shared by billions of people around the world.
So stop trying to appease evil and get on the right side of history, would you support a certain Adolf too?
I think it’s fair to say that the Covid response in the west highlighted the shambolic and weak self obsessed Governments
The squabbling and disarray over vaccines and medicines proved clearly to an outside observer that there was no unity in response to the pandemic
Nations acted selfishly and prejudicially against other friendly nations
For someone looking at them and perhaps planning a military strike it would be a key indicator of the response they would perhaps get, and to an extent we have seen the same
The squabbling and disarray over vaccines and medicines proved clearly to an outside observer that there was no unity in response to the pandemic
Nations acted selfishly and prejudicially against other friendly nations
For someone looking at them and perhaps planning a military strike it would be a key indicator of the response they would perhaps get, and to an extent we have seen the same
Skyrocket21 said:
I don't know if you're "excutive action" in disguise, or just hand wringing yourself or something.
Are you actually afraid for your own pocket, have you not seen the consquences of WW2 on the United Kingdom and thereafter? But we recovered, and Russia is puny on the world stage, if this was China you were talking about I would agree, everyone in the UK can weather some price increases on gas, if they can't then we'll just have to burn wood or donate to the poorest.
Russia isn't poor because Putin has kept back some wealth, this has been going on for decades, he's stolen half a trillion dollars to himself and friends in their own pockets.
You're scared of replacing Putin, you don't think Russians like a real democracy do you remember Yeltsin and Gorbachev? Even Khrushchev. Putin has poisoned or imprisoned any real truthful opponents, to his autocracy, Alexei Navalny?
My sentiments of Putin are not strong, they are shared by billions of people around the world.
So stop trying to appease evil and get on the right side of history, would you support a certain Adolf too?
You should go back and read the post and dial down the anger a bit. And don't go calling me an advocate for appeasement. I explained the actions of the governments - and mainly European ones who are too scared to hit Russia with the raft of sanctions. If you cannot read that, then I suggest you step back from the keyboard for a bit and take a break.Are you actually afraid for your own pocket, have you not seen the consquences of WW2 on the United Kingdom and thereafter? But we recovered, and Russia is puny on the world stage, if this was China you were talking about I would agree, everyone in the UK can weather some price increases on gas, if they can't then we'll just have to burn wood or donate to the poorest.
Russia isn't poor because Putin has kept back some wealth, this has been going on for decades, he's stolen half a trillion dollars to himself and friends in their own pockets.
You're scared of replacing Putin, you don't think Russians like a real democracy do you remember Yeltsin and Gorbachev? Even Khrushchev. Putin has poisoned or imprisoned any real truthful opponents, to his autocracy, Alexei Navalny?
My sentiments of Putin are not strong, they are shared by billions of people around the world.
So stop trying to appease evil and get on the right side of history, would you support a certain Adolf too?
I've not appeased anything, it was clear in post. I clarified the differential between Evil and Rational.
If you can't debate like an adult, this isn't the place for you. It's a disgusting post you have made.
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