Shortages following Ukraine war
Discussion
WE know all about the shortages that will follow following the sanctions on Russia and war in Ukrain.
Enegy, summer is coming and so the need for gas and oil will fall, most countries seem to have stores of gas and I guess oil and anyway the stuff is flowing from Russia for now.
However how do we get round the shortage of wheat? The two countries produce 30% of the worlds wheat, OK there are alternatives but replacing 30%, will it not cause problems beyond rising prices?
I am sure there are other things that will be inpacted, supply of neon gas for example, Ukrain made 50% of neon gas used in the world, which I believe is used in lasers and chip production,
Enegy, summer is coming and so the need for gas and oil will fall, most countries seem to have stores of gas and I guess oil and anyway the stuff is flowing from Russia for now.
However how do we get round the shortage of wheat? The two countries produce 30% of the worlds wheat, OK there are alternatives but replacing 30%, will it not cause problems beyond rising prices?
I am sure there are other things that will be inpacted, supply of neon gas for example, Ukrain made 50% of neon gas used in the world, which I believe is used in lasers and chip production,
Aluminium was mentioned in the news tonight - https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/aluminum
I've read in a few places that neon gas production can be ramped up elsewhere. Unlike some things it's not super unique.
I think we're going to hit from many, many different directions. There are so many consequences it'll be impossible to anticipate them all.
Let's get those Trabants rolling off the lines.
I think we're going to hit from many, many different directions. There are so many consequences it'll be impossible to anticipate them all.
Let's get those Trabants rolling off the lines.
Hungary has today banned the export of grain. That's another chunk of global production.
Notwithstanding that this appears to be in breach of Article 35 of TFEU, (a) that needs to be enforced, and (b) doesn't immediately help us here in the UK now we're outside of the EU.
Meanwhile, China has been busy stockpiling (unsurprisingly starting a little while before the Russian invasion) - buying vast quantities of soya bean and other commodities.
I think we're going to be in for a tough year.
Notwithstanding that this appears to be in breach of Article 35 of TFEU, (a) that needs to be enforced, and (b) doesn't immediately help us here in the UK now we're outside of the EU.
Meanwhile, China has been busy stockpiling (unsurprisingly starting a little while before the Russian invasion) - buying vast quantities of soya bean and other commodities.
I think we're going to be in for a tough year.
skwdenyer said:
I think we're going to be in for a tough year.
Ah, that'll make a nice change 
But yes, totally agree.
It very much feels like the last 5 years or so will be referred to in future history textbooks as "the events leading up to X". Only question is what 'X' is and whether there'll be anyone left to write about it.
StRemy said:
I’ve gone this afternoon to do the weekly shopping and there was a message at the cashier stating “Only two bottles of sunflower oil/person/day are allowed”. I thought these came from national production (not living in the UK), but it seems it may not be the case.
I think that is because of the fuel price rise,you can run older diesels on sunflower/veg oil.
Most German cars manufacturers wiring looms are made in Ukraine.
I was told the other day that there are 2 weeks of supply left and the impact on new cars shall be huge; the microprocessor shortage hasn't been rectified, so unless this outrageous act by Putin snowballs and cars are no longer of any concern, strong 2nd hand prices are here for the foreseeable; maybe even more so.
I was told the other day that there are 2 weeks of supply left and the impact on new cars shall be huge; the microprocessor shortage hasn't been rectified, so unless this outrageous act by Putin snowballs and cars are no longer of any concern, strong 2nd hand prices are here for the foreseeable; maybe even more so.
loafer123 said:
It would be interesting to understand the ability of the U.K. and EU to ramp up food production to compensate.
Rather than paying farmers to leave fields fallow, presumably pricing will encourage production?
Don't forget you need a season to grow stuff - bit late to react now. Rather than paying farmers to leave fields fallow, presumably pricing will encourage production?
Bacon Is Proof said:
More concerned with the slaughter of thousands of Ukrainians than my supply of neon gas, tbh.
It's not a binary concept; one can be concerned about the immediate humanitarian aspects of the war, and simultaneously, be concerned by about the knock on effects down the line.Flooble said:
loafer123 said:
It would be interesting to understand the ability of the U.K. and EU to ramp up food production to compensate.
Rather than paying farmers to leave fields fallow, presumably pricing will encourage production?
Don't forget you need a season to grow stuff - bit late to react now. Rather than paying farmers to leave fields fallow, presumably pricing will encourage production?
Wheelspinning said:
Most German cars manufacturers wiring looms are made in Ukraine.
I was told the other day that there are 2 weeks of supply left and the impact on new cars shall be huge; the microprocessor shortage hasn't been rectified, so unless this outrageous act by Putin snowballs and cars are no longer of any concern, strong 2nd hand prices are here for the foreseeable; maybe even more so.
Yep its going to be a repeat of last year in terms of high used car prices.I was told the other day that there are 2 weeks of supply left and the impact on new cars shall be huge; the microprocessor shortage hasn't been rectified, so unless this outrageous act by Putin snowballs and cars are no longer of any concern, strong 2nd hand prices are here for the foreseeable; maybe even more so.
Porsche has stopped production on several models already and total stoppage is the end of this month.
The effect on used car prices especially late stuff is quite clear.
Michelin announced yesterday a number of their European factories are also halting production.
Wheelspinning said:
Most German cars manufacturers wiring looms are made in Ukraine.
I was told the other day that there are 2 weeks of supply left and the impact on new cars shall be huge; the microprocessor shortage hasn't been rectified, so unless this outrageous act by Putin snowballs and cars are no longer of any concern, strong 2nd hand prices are here for the foreseeable; maybe even more so.
That's quite a spectacularly stupid bit of production planning if true; what would they have done if something more mundane happened like the factory burning down?I was told the other day that there are 2 weeks of supply left and the impact on new cars shall be huge; the microprocessor shortage hasn't been rectified, so unless this outrageous act by Putin snowballs and cars are no longer of any concern, strong 2nd hand prices are here for the foreseeable; maybe even more so.
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