Is there any point in the 60/40 portfolio?
Is there any point in the 60/40 portfolio?
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Phooey

Original Poster:

13,803 posts

198 months

Wednesday 23rd March 2022
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If returns on bonds are negative due to inflation, is it time to ditch the 60/40 portfolio, or stuff like Vanguard's Lifestrategy 20-80 offerings. And if so, what do you replace 'bonds' with?

Derek Chevalier

4,659 posts

202 months

Wednesday 23rd March 2022
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Phooey said:
If returns on bonds are negative due to inflation, is it time to ditch the 60/40 portfolio, or stuff like Vanguard's Lifestrategy 20-80 offerings. And if so, what do you replace 'bonds' with?
You are then getting into the realms of tactical asset allocation which, in common with most forms of "fiddling", tends to give suboptimal outcomes. If you ditch bonds, when would you consider getting back into them?

Phooey

Original Poster:

13,803 posts

198 months

Wednesday 23rd March 2022
quotequote all
Derek Chevalier said:
If you ditch bonds, when would you consider getting back into them?
I'd have to Google that biggrin


Do you still recommend (some) bonds to clients, Derek or do you think there are better alternatives in the near and present future?

hairy v

1,411 posts

173 months

Phooey

Original Poster:

13,803 posts

198 months

Wednesday 23rd March 2022
quotequote all
hairy v said:
Cheers

Found this too just now - mentions bonds from 1:25m https://ritholtz.com/2022/03/if-you-sell-now-when-...



BlackG7R

724 posts

210 months

Derek Chevalier

4,659 posts

202 months

Thursday 24th March 2022
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Phooey said:
or do you think there are better alternatives in the near and present future?
It goes back to my point about tactical asset allocation - you've got to look at what has worked over the long term rather than trying to be smart and juggle something that might be better in the short term.

What long term returns do you need for your plan to be a success?
For each of the assets classes in your current portfolio, what growth assumptions have you made? Is there a genuine shortfall?

Bonds giving muted returns over the next few years is a long, long way from the worst-case outcome we have historically experienced.

" In the period between 1914 and 1920, UK bonds lost over 60% in real terms over seven consecutive years."


Panamax

9,600 posts

63 months

Thursday 24th March 2022
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There's only one significant question to ask at the moment. Which is worse, Bonds or Cash?