The Porsche depreciation game
Discussion
your expert opinions are invited
what does everyone reckon the following cars will be worth in 2 years time with an extra 10k on the clock (assume all mint, saleable colour, FPSH etc)
1. 993tt P reg 35k miles cost £50k
2. 996tt 03 reg 8k miles PCM2 + good spec, cost £68k
3. 996tt 52 reg 20k miles PCM2 + good spec, cost £63k
4. 9964S 52 reg 15k miles PCM2 + good spec, cost £53k
5. 997S 05 reg, 5k miles PCM2 + good spec list £70k cost £67k
My estimates are:
1. £45k
2. £56k
3. £55k
4. £45k
5. £50k
is this realistic, what are your estimates?
>> Edited by Adam B on Thursday 4th August 14:36
>> Edited by Adam B on Thursday 4th August 14:50
what does everyone reckon the following cars will be worth in 2 years time with an extra 10k on the clock (assume all mint, saleable colour, FPSH etc)
1. 993tt P reg 35k miles cost £50k
2. 996tt 03 reg 8k miles PCM2 + good spec, cost £68k
3. 996tt 52 reg 20k miles PCM2 + good spec, cost £63k
4. 9964S 52 reg 15k miles PCM2 + good spec, cost £53k
5. 997S 05 reg, 5k miles PCM2 + good spec list £70k cost £67k
My estimates are:
1. £45k
2. £56k
3. £55k
4. £45k
5. £50k
is this realistic, what are your estimates?
>> Edited by Adam B on Thursday 4th August 14:36
>> Edited by Adam B on Thursday 4th August 14:50
I will only say from the point of view of the 993tt, but if you are paying £50k retail for a P reg car with 35k on the clock, i doubt you could trade it in for £45k the next month let alone 2 years down the line... Might be worth £45k retail after 2 years and 10k miles (crystal ball?) but at how much markup? £5k?
VS
1998 993tt, silver/black, 68k miles
VS
1998 993tt, silver/black, 68k miles
First off are you considering anticipated the price that a private sale may achieve or price you will get by liquidating your "investment" with the trade.
Personally I think the anticipated values are maybe a little high, other than the 997S which I think will be worth low 50's, mainly because this is the current model, will have support and full Porsche warranty from the OPC network.
Personally I think the anticipated values are maybe a little high, other than the 997S which I think will be worth low 50's, mainly because this is the current model, will have support and full Porsche warranty from the OPC network.
As a rule I always allow around £10k depreciation a year for all later 911's (996/7)
The 993TT seems to be holding their values better & the 996TT seems to be losing more than this - but looks like its leveling out now.
Other factors will come into play - the launch of the 997TT, the facelifted/tweaked 997 which will probably be here in a couple of years so its very difficult to anticipate.
As an aside, just worked out the over the last 12 months, my wife’s Vauxhall Zafira has cost more to run that my 996 TT
Ro.
>> Edited by roshambo on Thursday 4th August 11:02
The 993TT seems to be holding their values better & the 996TT seems to be losing more than this - but looks like its leveling out now.
Other factors will come into play - the launch of the 997TT, the facelifted/tweaked 997 which will probably be here in a couple of years so its very difficult to anticipate.
As an aside, just worked out the over the last 12 months, my wife’s Vauxhall Zafira has cost more to run that my 996 TT
Ro.
>> Edited by roshambo on Thursday 4th August 11:02
roshambo said:
As an aside, just worked out the over the last 12 months, my wife’s Vauxhall Zafira has cost more to run that my 996 TT
Ro.
My girlfriends' Golf GTi turbo has cost her more in three years (depreciation AND servicing) than my 3 993's, TVR Chimaera, Range Rover, and 328i Cab.
>> Edited by verysideways on Thursday 4th August 11:08
roshambo said:
As an aside, just worked out the over the last 12 months, my wife’s Vauxhall Zafira has cost more to run that my 996 TT
Ro.
>> Edited by roshambo on Thursday 4th August 11:02
Are you including dpreciation in that costing?
Maybe they have slowed a little, but a 996TT was losing 1000 pounds a month not too long ago.
sorry - I should have clarified
Assume all prices are sold privately, ie not factoring in a £5k profit for an OPC or more realistically £3k for an independent.
And my estimates did include 997 supp[ly catching up with demand and 997tt launch whch will only be 6 months old in 2 years time so prices will still be £85k+ and won't affect cars around the £50-55k too much
assume no extended warranties. The 997S will not have a warranty as the 2 year one will have run out 3/4 months ago.
>> Edited by Adam B on Thursday 4th August 12:33
>> Edited by Adam B on Thursday 4th August 12:37
Assume all prices are sold privately, ie not factoring in a £5k profit for an OPC or more realistically £3k for an independent.
And my estimates did include 997 supp[ly catching up with demand and 997tt launch whch will only be 6 months old in 2 years time so prices will still be £85k+ and won't affect cars around the £50-55k too much
assume no extended warranties. The 997S will not have a warranty as the 2 year one will have run out 3/4 months ago.
>> Edited by Adam B on Thursday 4th August 12:33
>> Edited by Adam B on Thursday 4th August 12:37
I have a 53reg 966tt i knew when i bought my car i would be looking at 10k a year loss and maybe more.I wouldnt recomend looking at depreciation too much because it will only keep you up at night and stop u enjoying the car for what it was intented for in the first place ie to be driven.If it really prays on your mind u could always buy an old fiesta for £200 and enjoy the world of depreciation free motoring
I've an idea...why not add 10k and 1yr to each of the specs, then surf Autotrader, Parkers, and Porsche dealer sites to gauge an avg. price for that car but a year older.
Obviously with the 997 that's not possible...but there I'd take the price of the equivalent 996 and add a bit...5% to 10% at a guess.
Obviously with the 997 that's not possible...but there I'd take the price of the equivalent 996 and add a bit...5% to 10% at a guess.
simdc - I agree, I accept that cars depreciate and I don't think I will never buy a new one again.
That is why I am looking at 2-3 year old 996tt which should start to bottom out a bit. Other possible is if they are still falling at the rumoured 1k pcm (which must have slowed by now?) I can get a cheaper 4S and wait a year or 2 before jumping to the turbo.
aceparts - I agree 50k was probably too high but its where they end up which was the crux of the question
havoc - good idea willdo
>> Edited by Adam B on Thursday 4th August 14:54
That is why I am looking at 2-3 year old 996tt which should start to bottom out a bit. Other possible is if they are still falling at the rumoured 1k pcm (which must have slowed by now?) I can get a cheaper 4S and wait a year or 2 before jumping to the turbo.
aceparts - I agree 50k was probably too high but its where they end up which was the crux of the question
havoc - good idea willdo
>> Edited by Adam B on Thursday 4th August 14:54
Without considering my loss on the GT3, which was down to my impatience to sell.. but no OPC would touch my car, because of the current climate in used car sales..
Since the terrorist bombings, and the recent stagnation in house prices, people are becomming very anxious about the onset of recession.!
Taking the 997 Carrera S as an example, there are now 6 pages.. approx 60 used cars for sale, just on the OPC site.!
http://ucl.porsche.de/ucl/plsql/uk/clients.browse_cars?sid_=0709997346F896E7B9490589C5B8CDA&pnr_=1
Time will tell..
Since the terrorist bombings, and the recent stagnation in house prices, people are becomming very anxious about the onset of recession.!
Taking the 997 Carrera S as an example, there are now 6 pages.. approx 60 used cars for sale, just on the OPC site.!
http://ucl.porsche.de/ucl/plsql/uk/clients.browse_cars?sid_=0709997346F896E7B9490589C5B8CDA&pnr_=1
Time will tell..
Product cycles are becoming shorter.
New cars lose money.
Limited volumes and specialist cars help.
Buying and selling privately takes out an unnecessary layer of margin --- but only because the Porsche secondhand inspection and warranty scheme is so good.
And dealer showrooms are a private motor show, so we should give them some credit.
My view is that a great buy is based on quality and market management. Porsche offers extremely good engineering quality with a very desireable product and absolutely top line product management.
So, buy new and you will lose money. But buy wisely and secondhand, and if you have chosen wisely you'll spend less and enjoy much more than the cost of a very ordinary runaround.
New cars lose money.
Limited volumes and specialist cars help.
Buying and selling privately takes out an unnecessary layer of margin --- but only because the Porsche secondhand inspection and warranty scheme is so good.
And dealer showrooms are a private motor show, so we should give them some credit.
My view is that a great buy is based on quality and market management. Porsche offers extremely good engineering quality with a very desireable product and absolutely top line product management.
So, buy new and you will lose money. But buy wisely and secondhand, and if you have chosen wisely you'll spend less and enjoy much more than the cost of a very ordinary runaround.
GT3 Rob said:
Without considering my loss on the GT3, which was down to my impatience to sell.. but no OPC would touch my car, because of the current climate in used car sales..
Since the terrorist bombings, and the recent stagnation in house prices, people are becomming very anxious about the onset of recession.!
Taking the 997 Carrera S as an example, there are now 6 pages.. approx 60 used cars for sale, just on the OPC site.!
http://ucl.porsche.de/ucl/plsql/uk/clients.browse_cars?sid_=0709997346F896E7B9490589C5B8CDA&pnr_=1
Time will tell..
Porsche dealers are unspeakably kean to make deals on second hand stock at the moment. Apparently new cars are shifting but they have quotas of second hand cars they are meant to shift and its not happening.
I've been offered very compelling deals on RSs, but it almost puts me off as the size of the deal makes me wonder if the market isn't about to freefall, especially as RSs are seasonal cars.
I agree on the GT3RS.
My problem with it that for most it's just too track focussed.
Assuming it will often be driven also on the road, who needed the suspension lowering an extra 10mm, who wants a plastic rear window --- and assuming you were looking for a CS version GT3, who wanted the white finish with the red or blue decals etc ?
Some do, but there are 99 of them with many now on the market.
Long term I really don't see them being worth very much more than a standard GT3 --- which quite interestingly would seem to be the current position between the M3 and the CSL version.
Most GT3/M3 buyers seem quite happy with standard GT3/M3's. So from where has the GT3RS/CSL found it's market ?
My problem with it that for most it's just too track focussed.
Assuming it will often be driven also on the road, who needed the suspension lowering an extra 10mm, who wants a plastic rear window --- and assuming you were looking for a CS version GT3, who wanted the white finish with the red or blue decals etc ?
Some do, but there are 99 of them with many now on the market.
Long term I really don't see them being worth very much more than a standard GT3 --- which quite interestingly would seem to be the current position between the M3 and the CSL version.
Most GT3/M3 buyers seem quite happy with standard GT3/M3's. So from where has the GT3RS/CSL found it's market ?
I would think very long and hard before buying another Porsche new. The days of rock solid residuals have long gone as they continue to overstock the channel. 60+ 997s used is not a good indicator for long term (or short term) retention of value.
After a very pleasant evening at Bedford I was reminded that there is more to factor into car ownership than pure cash. What price do you put on good times and great memories?
My RS seems to be loosing money quicker than traders in the Rhino come bonus day.
I therefore am going to use the car as intended, I will still have it up for sale but it will be a case of offer me a fair sum and we can talk rather than I want X for it.
If it sells, great, if it doesn't, also great.
I suppose the point I am trying to make is, buy the car you want and enjoy it until such time as there is something else you want more. Trying to second guess what anything is going to be worth in 2 years is nearly impossible and with Porsche its a game that will send you mad.
AS an aside, which have you driven and what was your favorite?
P.
After a very pleasant evening at Bedford I was reminded that there is more to factor into car ownership than pure cash. What price do you put on good times and great memories?
My RS seems to be loosing money quicker than traders in the Rhino come bonus day.
I therefore am going to use the car as intended, I will still have it up for sale but it will be a case of offer me a fair sum and we can talk rather than I want X for it.
If it sells, great, if it doesn't, also great.
I suppose the point I am trying to make is, buy the car you want and enjoy it until such time as there is something else you want more. Trying to second guess what anything is going to be worth in 2 years is nearly impossible and with Porsche its a game that will send you mad.
AS an aside, which have you driven and what was your favorite?
P.
ChrisW. said:
My problem with it that for most it's just too track focussed.
Have to disagree on that one Chris. Having owned Mk1, Mk2 and now an RS I would have to say that the RS is by far the better road car and absolutly streets (laps) ahead on the track.
I use my car more on the road than the track and have toured the UK and Europe in it with no problems at all and in surprising comfort.
Gassing Station | Porsche General | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff