Our cars will be worthless in 10 years...
Discussion
OK, a provocative title but I am genuinely interested in peoples' thoughts on this.
Context: F90 owner, really enjoy driving it, no plans to sell for the foreseeable. Plan to resist the move to EV for as long as possible (and I know how good they can be - friend has a Taycan Turbo S).
Theory: In 10 years pure ICE cars will be worthless (or not worth a lot anyway). The mass market will be in EVs & PHEVs, take up accelerated due to sustained high fuel prices & VED. I know the infrastructure isn't there yet, but it will be by then.
Even interesting ICE cars such as current M, AMG & RS models will be very old school by then and probably outperformed by a mid-tier EV hatch / saloon. I know these new cars will be white goods, but most people don't / won't care, particularly when running costs are taken into account.
So, I conclude that our cars really won't be worth a lot by 2032. The only ICE cars to avoid this will be supercars, which are sold in much lower volumes and will always be desirable. But I still don't plan to sell - depreciation is a fact of life!
Thoughts?
Context: F90 owner, really enjoy driving it, no plans to sell for the foreseeable. Plan to resist the move to EV for as long as possible (and I know how good they can be - friend has a Taycan Turbo S).
Theory: In 10 years pure ICE cars will be worthless (or not worth a lot anyway). The mass market will be in EVs & PHEVs, take up accelerated due to sustained high fuel prices & VED. I know the infrastructure isn't there yet, but it will be by then.
Even interesting ICE cars such as current M, AMG & RS models will be very old school by then and probably outperformed by a mid-tier EV hatch / saloon. I know these new cars will be white goods, but most people don't / won't care, particularly when running costs are taken into account.
So, I conclude that our cars really won't be worth a lot by 2032. The only ICE cars to avoid this will be supercars, which are sold in much lower volumes and will always be desirable. But I still don't plan to sell - depreciation is a fact of life!
Thoughts?
completely disagree, I think quite the opposite and in fact performance ICE cars will become extremely popular whilst this generation lives. As long as petrol is sold and available the demand for ICE will last an extremely long time.
Many current EV cars are better (performance wise) and priced better than ICE sport cars, theres no rush from people to go out and buy a tesla over a GT3RS currently.
There is also not the infastructure to support such a change within 10 years. ICE cars will remain extremely popular for a long time I feel, people will want to hold on as long as possible and not give up the driving experience.
Many current EV cars are better (performance wise) and priced better than ICE sport cars, theres no rush from people to go out and buy a tesla over a GT3RS currently.
There is also not the infastructure to support such a change within 10 years. ICE cars will remain extremely popular for a long time I feel, people will want to hold on as long as possible and not give up the driving experience.
Edited by Michael-lxb9y on Monday 4th July 14:51
Edited by Michael-lxb9y on Monday 4th July 14:52
I think your 'theory' is very likely to be cobblers.
There aren't many carthorses around these days granted but there's certainly plenty of thoroughbreds despite them serving absolutely no purpose apart from entertainment for a small minority of people.
There aren't many carthorses around these days granted but there's certainly plenty of thoroughbreds despite them serving absolutely no purpose apart from entertainment for a small minority of people.
Edited by ChocolateFrog on Monday 4th July 14:59
Michael-lxb9y said:
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Many current EV cars are better and lesser prices than ICE sport cars, theres no rush from people to go out and buy a tesla over a GT3RS currently.
The edit is helpful in terms of understanding your position, thanks. A GT3RS is clearly in the supercar category which I mentioned will not be affected.Many current EV cars are better and lesser prices than ICE sport cars, theres no rush from people to go out and buy a tesla over a GT3RS currently.
Edited by Michael-lxb9y on Monday 4th July 14:51
I agree that those that want to (me included) will hang on to the old school ICE cars for as long as possible, but I just see demand being a lot lower than now as EV tech & infrastructure will have evolved (and the roads become more crowded etc.).
I know a few people who have gone EV in the last 3 years (2 x Taycan, 2 x iPace, 3 x Tesla) and they all say they'll never go back.
911wise said:
Running costs in the future on an EV will be the same as they are now for ICE vehicles. Tax incentives will disappear, VED rates will increase and it’ll cost as much to charge a car with electric as it does to fill with fuel now.
No doubt; HMRC can't afford to miss out on the lost revenue....but who knows where ICE VED rates and fuel costs will be by then!BlueJ said:
The edit is helpful in terms of understanding your position, thanks. A GT3RS is clearly in the supercar category which I mentioned will not be affected.
I agree that those that want to (me included) will hang on to the old school ICE cars for as long as possible, but I just see demand being a lot lower than now as EV tech & infrastructure will have evolved (and the roads become more crowded etc.).
I know a few people who have gone EV in the last 3 years (2 x Taycan, 2 x iPace, 3 x Tesla) and they all say they'll never go back.
Of course people are moving and companies are helping employees to do so, I dont have an issue with anyone who does, but I personally dont know anyone who likes driving who has made the switch to an EV. I agree that those that want to (me included) will hang on to the old school ICE cars for as long as possible, but I just see demand being a lot lower than now as EV tech & infrastructure will have evolved (and the roads become more crowded etc.).
I know a few people who have gone EV in the last 3 years (2 x Taycan, 2 x iPace, 3 x Tesla) and they all say they'll never go back.
Reference infastructure, I would absolutely love to know how they plan to sort it out, in such places where I live communal flats with one space per car, multi cars per household, streets with 2/3 times more cars than households, multi charging points on every side road and surrounding roads to peoples residence?
EV charges in every single office parking space? currently our office has 350 people working there and 2 spaces allocated to EV, I cannot see the required sizeable change being anywhere near ready in the next 10 years, its not realistic unless the method to charge changes at home and work.
Wife has a Tesla M3LR & although i kind of 'get' some of the advantages, it will be a long time before i make the swap from fast & enjoyable ICE to EV.
Let's be honest, these 'performance' EV's are epic & fun in a straight line, but they're not great at scrubbing high speeds off & even worse when you encounter your favourite A/B roads. On top of that (check when you're next on the Motorway), you'll see them tucked up behind an HGV in slipstream doing 55mph so they have any chance of making their destination. Can't recall the last time i saw a Sports/Super/Hypercar doing the same.
Yes that traffic light GP is a giggle every now & again, but drive an EV how you'd normally drive an ICE & you're asking for excessive anxiety.
Last key points are the traffic network infrastructure is years away from being able to fully support charging whilst on the move as key swathes of the UK are almost unrepresented (think back to mobile network coverage 25yrs ago) & lastly the Electricity Grid in the UK is again years away from being able to support any sharper upturn in EV's.
Let's be honest, these 'performance' EV's are epic & fun in a straight line, but they're not great at scrubbing high speeds off & even worse when you encounter your favourite A/B roads. On top of that (check when you're next on the Motorway), you'll see them tucked up behind an HGV in slipstream doing 55mph so they have any chance of making their destination. Can't recall the last time i saw a Sports/Super/Hypercar doing the same.
Yes that traffic light GP is a giggle every now & again, but drive an EV how you'd normally drive an ICE & you're asking for excessive anxiety.
Last key points are the traffic network infrastructure is years away from being able to fully support charging whilst on the move as key swathes of the UK are almost unrepresented (think back to mobile network coverage 25yrs ago) & lastly the Electricity Grid in the UK is again years away from being able to support any sharper upturn in EV's.
You are correct. Electric cars will be better in every way for 90% of the population. So you will have a vast wash of used combustion vehicles appealing to a small niche of people. The special vehicles that exhibit exemplary attributes, like say a Ferrari F40, will continue to accelerate in value as they have what can no longer be found, but something like a petrol Golf GTI will be of very little value.
Zadkiel said:
You are correct. Electric cars will be better in every way for 90% of the population. So you will have a vast wash of used combustion vehicles appealing to a small niche of people. The special vehicles that exhibit exemplary attributes, like say a Ferrari F40, will continue to accelerate in value as they have what can no longer be found, but something like a petrol Golf GTI will be of very little value.
I'm not sure the appeal of ICE will be that limited. 90% of the population are driving around in horrible things like the Nissan Juke and Qashqai, Vauxhall Mokka etc or if you want a badge Q3/Q5, X1/2/3. Walking through my local station car park this morning I realised how few everyday cars I'd want to drive, never mind own. All that stuff will go electric over time.The exceptions are stuff with an interesting engine or lightweights that would be ruined by the weight of batteries - think Alpine A110, Lotus Elise/Exige (now sadly gone TBF), Caterham, Ariel etc
Luckily it'll take a while to remove all the ICE cars from the roads, as many can't afford a new car and it'll take time for used EVs to filter through to 3/4/5th owners. In the meantime there won't be any issues with fuel availability.
ChocolateFrog said:
I think your 'theory' is very likely to be cobblers.
There aren't many carthorses around these days granted but there's certainly plenty of thoroughbreds despite them serving absolutely no purpose apart from entertainment for a small minority of people.
This line gets "trotted" out all the time. The big difference with ICE is that it all depends on the availability of fossil fuel or synthetic alternatives. There aren't many carthorses around these days granted but there's certainly plenty of thoroughbreds despite them serving absolutely no purpose apart from entertainment for a small minority of people.
Edited by ChocolateFrog on Monday 4th July 14:59
While horses are largely useless as a form of transport, the fuel they use continues to be freely available. If the world really does switch to green/sustainable electricity, then the purchase and storage of fuel could become an issue.
That said, I think we are a long way off having issues in terms of fuel supply. Even if 75% of petrol stations disappear, I'd still have no issue filling up.
Michael-lxb9y said:
I dont have an issue with anyone who does, but I personally dont know anyone who likes driving who has made the switch to an EV.
I might have said the same 12 months ago - I LOVE driving, when the roads are quiet and I can push on. I thought my new Taycan CT would simply be a better car than my M5 for the 99% of the time tootling about in heavy traffic and cruising around in luxury and silence. The reality has been that the Taycan proved to also be a better performance car than the M5 (1%) of the time. I won’t ever have another ice daily car even if the cost to charge was the same as petrol …. Sorry they are just not as good as the best electric cars imo and the tech is only going to get better. Caveats; I also will hopefully keep the supercars with the special na engines; which really define fun and interaction. None of the current turbo charged gpf equipped cars sound as good as what was around 5-10 years ago despite the increased performance. Furthermore, totally agree that you absolutely need a charging point at home for these cars to work (although did my first 400 mile Motorway round trip last week which included a painless single 19 min Ionity top-up). Equally, if I was unfortunate enough to have to grind up and down the country on a daily basis, undoubtedly the infrastructure is not reliable and epansive enough: hence the continued need for diesel sh*t boxes.
survivalist said:
ChocolateFrog said:
I think your 'theory' is very likely to be cobblers.
There aren't many carthorses around these days granted but there's certainly plenty of thoroughbreds despite them serving absolutely no purpose apart from entertainment for a small minority of people.
This line gets "trotted" out all the time. The big difference with ICE is that it all depends on the availability of fossil fuel or synthetic alternatives. There aren't many carthorses around these days granted but there's certainly plenty of thoroughbreds despite them serving absolutely no purpose apart from entertainment for a small minority of people.
Edited by ChocolateFrog on Monday 4th July 14:59
While horses are largely useless as a form of transport, the fuel they use continues to be freely available. If the world really does switch to green/sustainable electricity, then the purchase and storage of fuel could become an issue.
That said, I think we are a long way off having issues in terms of fuel supply. Even if 75% of petrol stations disappear, I'd still have no issue filling up.
TX.
Thanks for all the replies so far, interesting viewpoints, although I feel the need to respond as the discussion seems to have gone down an EV vs. ICE route.
I deliberately included PHEVs in my original post as I feel these will be the key factor. I agree EVs alone aren't the answer, and I agree petrol stations are here to stay for the foreseeable.
It will be improvements in and increased take up of PHEVs that will make current pure ICE cars seem outdated in the 10 year timeframe I mentioned. For example, the powertrain of M cars in 2032 will be quite different from today's, with the same occurring in other performance cars. Yes, there will always be those of a nostalgic bent (me included) but I suspect our numbers will reduce as people realise just how good the alternative is.
We haven't seen such a step change in powertrain technology before (well, not for a long time) - todays performance cars are still powered by the same powerful petrol engines as they were 20 years ago - but I suspect change is coming, and will evolve rapidly. (Yes I know about the McLaren P1 etc). The big car groups are pouring ££Billions into battery technology, precious metal mines etc for a reason.
One caveat: IF there is a global recession for a few years the timeframe could slip to say 15 years. We'll see!
I deliberately included PHEVs in my original post as I feel these will be the key factor. I agree EVs alone aren't the answer, and I agree petrol stations are here to stay for the foreseeable.
It will be improvements in and increased take up of PHEVs that will make current pure ICE cars seem outdated in the 10 year timeframe I mentioned. For example, the powertrain of M cars in 2032 will be quite different from today's, with the same occurring in other performance cars. Yes, there will always be those of a nostalgic bent (me included) but I suspect our numbers will reduce as people realise just how good the alternative is.
We haven't seen such a step change in powertrain technology before (well, not for a long time) - todays performance cars are still powered by the same powerful petrol engines as they were 20 years ago - but I suspect change is coming, and will evolve rapidly. (Yes I know about the McLaren P1 etc). The big car groups are pouring ££Billions into battery technology, precious metal mines etc for a reason.
One caveat: IF there is a global recession for a few years the timeframe could slip to say 15 years. We'll see!
Edited by BlueJ on Wednesday 6th July 15:24
Michael-lxb9y said:
Of course people are moving and companies are helping employees to do so, I dont have an issue with anyone who does, but I personally dont know anyone who likes driving who has made the switch to an EV.
This is the crux, electric vehicles are the very essence of 'white goods' transport - emotionless, ruthlessly efficient and (IMO) boring. Yes they're quick, but where's the joy out of pressing a pedal to go faster and then another pedal to slow down? Standing on the banks of race circuits as a child listening to DFVs, FVAs, M88s, M12s and the countless other great engines of the past was what got me in to cars as a child, not watching the local Milkman do his rounds... Even now, watching that McMurty thing go up Goodwood FOS, yes it's spectacular but do I want one? Do I f
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