20 year old cars likely to be most numerous as historics
Discussion
BMW Mini.
They sold them by the bucketload and they are considered trendy/fashionable so attract a premium over a comparable Fiesta/Corsa.
The high sales mean there are a lot of them floating around, and the high retained value means they're more likely to be repaired than scrapped when something breaks.
I'd also have nominated the Fiat 500 (it might have a few more years to go before it hits 20 - not certain when they released it) for the same reasons except for the fact they appear to be made out of chocolate and bolted together by semi-trained orangutans. They seem to command a truly crazy premium for being 'cute' compared to similar cars, and other than a mild facelift at some point, are basically identical to what Fiat will sell you today. As a result a cheapo private plate and the average punter can't tell whether a car is 6 months or 16 years old!
However, I think the quality (or lack thereof) will eventually be their downfall and they'll disappear off the roads in what feels like the blink of an eye.
They sold them by the bucketload and they are considered trendy/fashionable so attract a premium over a comparable Fiesta/Corsa.
The high sales mean there are a lot of them floating around, and the high retained value means they're more likely to be repaired than scrapped when something breaks.
I'd also have nominated the Fiat 500 (it might have a few more years to go before it hits 20 - not certain when they released it) for the same reasons except for the fact they appear to be made out of chocolate and bolted together by semi-trained orangutans. They seem to command a truly crazy premium for being 'cute' compared to similar cars, and other than a mild facelift at some point, are basically identical to what Fiat will sell you today. As a result a cheapo private plate and the average punter can't tell whether a car is 6 months or 16 years old!
However, I think the quality (or lack thereof) will eventually be their downfall and they'll disappear off the roads in what feels like the blink of an eye.The second 20 years of a car's life is quite tough.
A lot of cars will hit the ""significant bill exceeds value"" problem.
Plus once there are more used EVs on the market, the world of banger-o-nomics will change.
It's a complicated question. Some models will suffer high attrition because they tend to rack up the miles. Most diesel estates seem to do 10k miles a year?
Not many will survive 30 years at that rate.
It will be the cars which don't do the miles, second cars, 'her' cars? Old people's cars?
A lot of cars will hit the ""significant bill exceeds value"" problem.
Plus once there are more used EVs on the market, the world of banger-o-nomics will change.
It's a complicated question. Some models will suffer high attrition because they tend to rack up the miles. Most diesel estates seem to do 10k miles a year?
Not many will survive 30 years at that rate.
It will be the cars which don't do the miles, second cars, 'her' cars? Old people's cars?
Anything that was desirable at the time and still has some draw now. Reachable performance cars for example, VXR's, ST's, RS' will be kept. Less so Astra and Corsa models (We'll pretend Zafira and Meriva VXR's didn't exist) but Insignia and Vectra VXR's demand good money, as do the Astra GTC VXR. They're approaching 20 now and will probably be around for quite some time. Rare editions of cars like the Mini will probably demand good value too. Park Lane, 7, JCW models, ones with rare and interesting options. I can't see my mums 150k Cooper with eBay bonnet stripes and scuffs all over being worth any more than scrap money!
Dogwatch said:
Mk1 Focus
They're a rare sight already and the newest ones are well under 20 years old. In the spirit of picking your own car I'll nominate the Chimaera. Literally 1000's made, most are cherished in garages doing next to no miles. Body is fibreglass, chassis is bits of box section that are relatively easily replaced and the rest of it isn't exactly complicated either.
Fashion is what will dictate the cars that remain I guess. There are so many cars that we took for granted and just - disappeared. Take the Ford Ka for example; at the end of the nineties they were everywhere, but where have you seen one recently? And the oldest of them is only 26 years old now. I suppose the answer to the OP will be those that rust the least in the end.
Stuart70 said:
Aston, Ferrari and Porsche will form a disproportionately large portion of the pool relative to numbers originally sold.
Fords and VAG because cult following.
Others - will be interesting to see.
Will anyone ever desire an original Tesla as a classic?
Many of us wouldn't want a new Tesla, let alone a second hand one. Can't see anyone feeling nostalgia for a white good.Fords and VAG because cult following.
Others - will be interesting to see.
Will anyone ever desire an original Tesla as a classic?
ChocolateFrog said:
ticking your own car I'll nominate the Chimaera. Literally 1000's made, most are cherished in garages doing next to no miles. Body is fibreglass, chassis is bits of box section that are relatively easily replaced and the rest of it isn't exactly complicated either.
I think that is a good shout actually, values have risen to the point where current owner's can spend the money to keep them in good condition without it costing more than the car is worth and there are still enough 'specialists' operating to do the work that owner's can't.Gassing Station | Classic Cars and Yesterday's Heroes | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff