New Porsche waiting lists in light of financial crisis

[finmac]

Clearly none of us has a Crystal ball but I just wondered if anyone had a view on whether the cost of living crisis will have much effect on the current very lengthy new car waiting list, with many getting their deposits back rather than proceeding with their cars?

[rbh]

What will the effect of the value of the pound have on ongoing and ordered Porsches, I can only assume a fairly large increase in price.

[Stig]

rbh said:

What will the effect of the value of the pound have on ongoing and ordered Porsches, I can only assume a fairly large increase in price.

Maybe not, all currencies are down against the US$, not just GBP, so unless they start making them in Scottsdale rather than Stuttgart, there should be some insualtion. Though Porsche will no doubt seek to capitalise on it either way! I expect the demand from the US given the strengtg of the dollar is massive and Porsche will go where the profits are.

[Voodoo Blue]

I was in my local OPC earlier this week and was quoted the following for the cars I was interested in:

Macan:

2.0 - circa 6 months
2.0T - circa 4 months
3.0S - circa 9 months
3.0GTS - Circa 18 months

Boxster:

GTS - More than 18 months if ever, unless there was a cancelled order

992:

Carrera - circa 18 months

They also asked if I'd be willing to sell any of my current cars as they are short of stock and have customers waiting for specific models.

My view is the MSM is making lots of noise about "the cost of living crisis" and while I've no doubt it will impact some people quite hard it will be far from the widespread doom and gloom they are portraying.

[ras62]

rbh said:

What will the effect of the value of the pound have on ongoing and ordered Porsches, I can only assume a fairly large increase in price.

With German producer price index running at 40+% it would seem inevitable large price increases will follow. While Porsche can control their manpower costs the materials and energy needed to build a car can't be bypassed. Add to that increase finance costs and the picture is pretty grim

[Koln-RS]

What I was told by a leasing broker (Audi/VW/Mercedes/BMW/Porsche) was that there will be a lot more cancelled orders.

This is because many people ordered cars when there was a long lead time and their circumstances/needs/wishes will have changed, and in some cases their anticipated part/ex value will have dropped.

So, whilst lead times to order may still look long, there will be a lot more cars in the immediate system and on forecourts.

[tonyg58]

I was passing my Porsche dealer yesterday, dropped in to check on progress of the Boxster GTS I ordered in March (quoted Q4 2023 at that time).
They said (and I believe them), that they have had no information on deliveries from Porsche about that far in the future, may get an update March/April next year.

[GT4P]

Ordered BGTS May 21 , told I am high up on list but I think I am going to pull the plug not due to finance worries but I ordered because a Spyder was unattainable but now I can see the over’s market eroding then a second hand one seems closer or soon to be below list!

[Porsche guy]

Voodoo Blue said:

I was in my local OPC earlier this week and was quoted the following for the cars I was interested in:

Macan:

2.0 - circa 6 months
2.0T - circa 4 months
3.0S - circa 9 months
3.0GTS - Circa 18 months

Boxster:

GTS - More than 18 months if ever, unless there was a cancelled order

992:

Carrera - circa 18 months

They also asked if I'd be willing to sell any of my current cars as they are short of stock and have customers waiting for specific models.

My view is the MSM is making lots of noise about "the cost of living crisis" and while I've no doubt it will impact some people quite hard it will be far from the widespread doom and gloom they are portraying.

Had a Macan S on order since March, and early 23 for delivery

[Cheib]

Koln-RS said:

What I was told by a leasing broker (Audi/VW/Mercedes/BMW/Porsche) was that there will be a lot more cancelled orders.

This is because many people ordered cars when there was a long lead time and their circumstances/needs/wishes will have changed, and in some cases their anticipated part/ex value will have dropped.

So, whilst lead times to order may still look long, there will be a lot more cars in the immediate system and on forecourts.

Won't just be PX values etc cost of finance will change significantly. I'd say that will have a bigger impact given how many cars are bought on finance, people ask "what are the monthlies" rather than "what's its 0-60"

Lets face it not many people NEED a new Porsche...it is a lucky and in a lot of cases aspirational purchase.

Waiting lists will drop for all manufacturers, Porsche will be impacted less because its customers are from higher income brackets.

[av185]

Stig said:

rbh said:

What will the effect of the value of the pound have on ongoing and ordered Porsches, I can only assume a fairly large increase in price.

Maybe not, all currencies are down against the US$, not just GBP, so unless they start making them in Scottsdale rather than Stuttgart, there should be some insualtion. Though Porsche will no doubt seek to capitalise on it either way! I expect the demand from the US given the strengtg of the dollar is massive and Porsche will go where the profits are.

Yep will be interesting to see how much Porsche prioritise US markets at the expense of others including the UK with obvious affects on increasing lead times outside the US despite the slight reduction in demand due to the prevailing economic headwinds.

[IbanezDan]

I think people seem to be forgetting that the U.K. only makes up for a small portion of Porsche sales compared to worldwide. So if you think a few cancelled orders is going to have such a large knock on effect on the mass shortage of parts and ever increasing waiting lists then it’s an interesting thought.

Not everyone is suffering a financial crisis as bad as ours (at least as bad as how the media is portraying it… more scare mongering…)

[NMNeil]

av185 said:

Yep will be interesting to see how much Porsche prioritise US markets at the expense of others including the UK with obvious affects on increasing lead times outside the US despite the slight reduction in demand due to the prevailing economic headwinds.

Porsche are selling well here, with the Taycan doubling sales, possibly due to the push towards EV's.
The days of fast cars may be numbered with the NTSB looking at speed limiters for all new cars sold in the US.

[GT4RS]

Koln-RS said:

What I was told by a leasing broker (Audi/VW/Mercedes/BMW/Porsche) was that there will be a lot more cancelled orders.m

This is because many people ordered cars when there was a long lead time and their circumstances/needs/wishes will have changed, and in some cases their anticipated part/ex value will have dropped.

So, whilst lead times to order may still look long, there will be a lot more cars in the immediate system and on forecourts.

Spot on

[GT4RS]

Porsche guy said:

Voodoo Blue said:

I was in my local OPC earlier this week and was quoted the following for the cars I was interested in:

Macan:

2.0 - circa 6 months
2.0T - circa 4 months
3.0S - circa 9 months
3.0GTS - Circa 18 months

Boxster:

GTS - More than 18 months if ever, unless there was a cancelled order

992:

Carrera - circa 18 months

They also asked if I'd be willing to sell any of my current cars as they are short of stock and have customers waiting for specific models.

My view is the MSM is making lots of noise about "the cost of living crisis" and while I've no doubt it will impact some people quite hard it will be far from the widespread doom and gloom they are portraying.

Had a Macan S on order since March, and early 23 for delivery

We have a Macan S and T on order for family members, your lead times are spot on.

I tested the T, for the money and for a town car it’s a great buy.

[tedblog]

IbanezDan said:

I think people seem to be forgetting that the U.K. only makes up for a small portion of Porsche sales compared to worldwide. So if you think a few cancelled orders is going to have such a large knock on effect on the mass shortage of parts and ever increasing waiting lists then it’s an interesting thought.

Not everyone is suffering a financial crisis as bad as ours (at least as bad as how the media is portraying it… more scare mongering…)

China is a huge market for Porsche, sales have dropped by over 20%.
Apparently this has been used to fulfil the back log of orders in the US?

[tedblog]

Stig said:

Maybe not, all currencies are down against the US$, not just GBP, so unless they start making them in Scottsdale rather than Stuttgart, there should be some insualtion. Though Porsche will no doubt seek to capitalise on it either way! I expect the demand from the US given the strengtg of the dollar is massive and Porsche will go where the profits are.

With the way the pound has slumped against the Euro anything imported from Europe will increase in cost. Possibly 6% increase.

[GT4RS]

tedblog said:

China is a huge market for Porsche, sales have dropped by over 20%.
Apparently this has been used to fulfil the back log of orders in the US?

That’s a huge drop, let’s not forget porsche are still using their Russian allocations to help improve lead times in other areas of the world. Between Russian and the huge drop in demand from China, back orders will hopefully be filled.

[ChrisW.]

tedblog said:

Stig said:

Maybe not, all currencies are down against the US$, not just GBP, so unless they start making them in Scottsdale rather than Stuttgart, there should be some insualtion. Though Porsche will no doubt seek to capitalise on it either way! I expect the demand from the US given the strengtg of the dollar is massive and Porsche will go where the profits are.

With the way the pound has slumped against the Euro anything imported from Europe will increase in cost. Possibly 6% increase.

Unless manufacturers compromise their margins, the increase could be far larger than this.
Raw materials and energy is priced in dollars, converting raw materials into goods in Germany will have increased in cost, and then there is the £ depreciation against the Euro ... added to which for cars purchased on finance, the additional interest costs. Some percentages are known, other are guesses, but 15% feels quite modest against this list ?

The whole logic has changed ...
The argument for buying any Porsche GT car could have been, buy on finance, own the car for free and see the interest payments as a savings plan because when you sell it (privately ?), this is what it will have been. Of course if you wanted another new car you would "prospectively" need to sell it back to your OPC ....
As soon as cars depreciate from new this is blown out of the water. This is why Porsche will limit supply and dealers will try to churn secondhand cars for their margins .... and hope that owners of GT cars keep tracking them for the wear and tear and accident work ... ?

At least new price increases will support current owners ... as for new owners, they need to go in with their eyes open.

Of course costs may also fall at some stage, but so far costs with increase economies of scale have all worked in our favour. Going forward the logic appears to be that this is going into reverse ...

[Andyoz]

GT4RS said:

That’s a huge drop, let’s not forget porsche are still using their Russian allocations to help improve lead times in other areas of the world. Between Russian and the huge drop in demand from China, back orders will hopefully be filled.

China is a much bigger story than is getting coverage. Just research what's happening in their property market and property Developers and the Buy to Let crew sure like their Porsche's...(some are holding properties that cost 20 to 30x the annual wages in that locality so their rental yields are non existent)

Porsche is a volume manufacturer...There will be plenty of cars to go around
Just look at whats happening to used Turbo prices already...being slashed by 10 to 15% this month alone.

Edited by Andyoz on Thursday 29th September 10:50