Is it the London Clearing House or Credit Suisse?
Discussion
s
t's about to hit the fan, imminently. Frank Dodd Act about to be invoked in the US. Market collapse expected.
An EU/UK financial institution, possibly UK's LCH, could be Credit Suisse or Eurex Clearing AG - doesn't really matter, is set to default/collapse and trigger the US's Frank-Dodd Act.
The US has already decided what is going to happen and on which day the wheels will be set in motion. Meeting of heads from various US + EU/UK governing bodies took place late November in the US.
Quotes from the meeting:
“The next crisis won’t be 08. I know that…. The next event will affect multiple institutions simultaneously .”
“Mindful that confidence is critical to success … in every case… but particularly in this case where we would be exercising our authority for the first time .”
“We are required to remove culpable management.”
“Friday night announcement to execute Title ii, ideally Friday night.” (Title ii < Frank Dodd Act, Orderly Liquidation Authority)
“We have a gaping hole and the non bank sector grows…" (SHFs aren't covered by the Frank Dodd Act, so will be left to die)
“…the unintended consequences of taking it public, that has more full faith and confidence in the banking system, than maybe the people in this room do"
"...There is a select crowd of people in the institutional side, and if they want to understand this, they’ll find a way to understand this… There is a bunch of law firms in this room that will charge them a lot of money to explain this to them… and they all have huge staffs… I’d be careful of the unintended consequences of starting to blast too much of this out in the general public .” < in other words, a bank run
“Enormous value to us in an area that is of vital importance to the FDIC. At the end of the day, our ability to manage the orderly failure of the systemic Financial Institution will probably be the ultimate credibility test for our agency .”
So, on a not too distant Friday evening, a financial event of extremely significant proportions is going to be announced with extreme measures being put in place to protect the US from fallout from UK/EU finance sector - wonder how bad it's going to get. US price of gold's been pretty interesting since November (CDBCs rolled out as a magic fix?).
Meeting summarised by ChatGPT (apparently):
1) The FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) held a meeting to discuss strategy for an impending market collapse.
2) A Central Counterparty Clearing House (CCP) in Europe is at risk of default, possibly due to Credit Suisse.
3) If a CCP defaults, it could lead to a cascading default of all members relying on the existence of Credit Suisse.
4) The US relies on CCPs for international hedging, and a default could bring systemic risk to the US.
5) The US is being pushed by Europe to fix the problem, possibly indicating a larger systemic risk in Europe.
6) The FDIC is considering the use of a "systemic risk authority" to address the issue.
7) There is discussion of a "bail-in" strategy, in which losses are absorbed by the failing institution's creditors and shareholders rather than taxpayers.
8) The FDIC is also considering the use of a "single point of entry" strategy, in which a failing institution's assets and liabilities are transferred to a bridge bank.
And to put forward someone else's assessment of the forthcoming fallout:
"Oh you owe 1.5 trillion shares of X stock? Nope. RIP. Only 300m shares exist." and then brokers just delete positions because the obligations are gone. Remember, the clearing corps job is to move securities between people who are owed. If the clearing corps fail, any trades going through them are wiped along with the contracts being destroyed.
So you'd think, well wtf how is that going to cause MOASS, isn't that going to prevent MOASS? Nope. The shares still exist in the USA where the DTCC is the clearing corp. Once the EU market implodes, positions will start getting closed out during EU CCP liquidation leading to the price skyrocketing. This will launch the US markets GME rocket. The tiny institutions will have to start closing positions ASAP so they aren't liquidated, pouring more fuel on the fire and pushing the price even higher. As soon as the stock price starts moving, Citadel and the big guys will lose out on their ability to control the stock price via internalization because in the EU, the price will be in the thousands. No major institution, regardless of affiliation or location globally, will stand by and ignore the arbitrage between US and EU prices when they are in the thousands. Orders and executions will finally hit the lit exchange because the other players will finally get a piece of the pie and it won't happen in dark pools."
t's about to hit the fan, imminently. Frank Dodd Act about to be invoked in the US. Market collapse expected. An EU/UK financial institution, possibly UK's LCH, could be Credit Suisse or Eurex Clearing AG - doesn't really matter, is set to default/collapse and trigger the US's Frank-Dodd Act.
The US has already decided what is going to happen and on which day the wheels will be set in motion. Meeting of heads from various US + EU/UK governing bodies took place late November in the US.
Quotes from the meeting:
“The next crisis won’t be 08. I know that…. The next event will affect multiple institutions simultaneously .”
“Mindful that confidence is critical to success … in every case… but particularly in this case where we would be exercising our authority for the first time .”
“We are required to remove culpable management.”
“Friday night announcement to execute Title ii, ideally Friday night.” (Title ii < Frank Dodd Act, Orderly Liquidation Authority)
“We have a gaping hole and the non bank sector grows…" (SHFs aren't covered by the Frank Dodd Act, so will be left to die)
“…the unintended consequences of taking it public, that has more full faith and confidence in the banking system, than maybe the people in this room do"
"...There is a select crowd of people in the institutional side, and if they want to understand this, they’ll find a way to understand this… There is a bunch of law firms in this room that will charge them a lot of money to explain this to them… and they all have huge staffs… I’d be careful of the unintended consequences of starting to blast too much of this out in the general public .” < in other words, a bank run
“Enormous value to us in an area that is of vital importance to the FDIC. At the end of the day, our ability to manage the orderly failure of the systemic Financial Institution will probably be the ultimate credibility test for our agency .”
So, on a not too distant Friday evening, a financial event of extremely significant proportions is going to be announced with extreme measures being put in place to protect the US from fallout from UK/EU finance sector - wonder how bad it's going to get. US price of gold's been pretty interesting since November (CDBCs rolled out as a magic fix?).
Meeting summarised by ChatGPT (apparently):
1) The FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) held a meeting to discuss strategy for an impending market collapse.
2) A Central Counterparty Clearing House (CCP) in Europe is at risk of default, possibly due to Credit Suisse.
3) If a CCP defaults, it could lead to a cascading default of all members relying on the existence of Credit Suisse.
4) The US relies on CCPs for international hedging, and a default could bring systemic risk to the US.
5) The US is being pushed by Europe to fix the problem, possibly indicating a larger systemic risk in Europe.
6) The FDIC is considering the use of a "systemic risk authority" to address the issue.
7) There is discussion of a "bail-in" strategy, in which losses are absorbed by the failing institution's creditors and shareholders rather than taxpayers.
8) The FDIC is also considering the use of a "single point of entry" strategy, in which a failing institution's assets and liabilities are transferred to a bridge bank.
And to put forward someone else's assessment of the forthcoming fallout:
"Oh you owe 1.5 trillion shares of X stock? Nope. RIP. Only 300m shares exist." and then brokers just delete positions because the obligations are gone. Remember, the clearing corps job is to move securities between people who are owed. If the clearing corps fail, any trades going through them are wiped along with the contracts being destroyed.
So you'd think, well wtf how is that going to cause MOASS, isn't that going to prevent MOASS? Nope. The shares still exist in the USA where the DTCC is the clearing corp. Once the EU market implodes, positions will start getting closed out during EU CCP liquidation leading to the price skyrocketing. This will launch the US markets GME rocket. The tiny institutions will have to start closing positions ASAP so they aren't liquidated, pouring more fuel on the fire and pushing the price even higher. As soon as the stock price starts moving, Citadel and the big guys will lose out on their ability to control the stock price via internalization because in the EU, the price will be in the thousands. No major institution, regardless of affiliation or location globally, will stand by and ignore the arbitrage between US and EU prices when they are in the thousands. Orders and executions will finally hit the lit exchange because the other players will finally get a piece of the pie and it won't happen in dark pools."
Edited by ReverendCounter on Friday 30th December 02:04
Edited by ReverendCounter on Friday 30th December 02:05
Well obviously I shouldn't respond to the troll, especially the troll who is just cutting and posting other trolls, where no-one in the chain has any understanding of what they are talking about. On the other hand I am out with the Newcettes in the sales, and they are trying shoes, and I am very very drunkbored.
I'll give you Credit Suisse, which is a horror show, but it has been for a long time now and anybody dealing with it will be hedged accordingly. I suspect CS could go bust and nobody would really care outside some chocolate shops in Geneva.
2. Nobody would care if CS went under
3. Wrong way round, and also (2)
4. Parklife.
5. Why would the US 'fix' Credit Suisse's terrible business strategy
6. Good, that's their job
7. Good, that's their job
8. Good, that's their job
Have to stop here, apparently I am needed to bring out my credit card and purchase one of the only assets with tangible value - a pair of Manolos.
ReverendCounter said:
st's about to hit the fan, imminently. Frank Dodd Act about to be invoked in the US. Market collapse expected.
As above. Dodd-Frank not Frank Dodd's All Singing And Dancing Financial Services Legislation. Dodd-Frank doesn't need 'invoking', it is already an active piece of US law. It does contain provisions for the orderly wind down of bankrupt US institutions, such as none of t's about to hit the fan, imminently. Frank Dodd Act about to be invoked in the US. Market collapse expected. ReverendCounter said:
An EU/UK financial institution, possibly UK's LCH, could be Credit Suisse or Eurex Clearing AG - doesn't really matter, is set to default/collapse and trigger the US's Frank-Dodd Act.
which are covered in the EU/UK not the US. LCH and Eurex wouldn't collapse by themselves, they would be impacted by a bank's collapse, which you would know if you had any understanding of what those operations are and what they do. I'll give you Credit Suisse, which is a horror show, but it has been for a long time now and anybody dealing with it will be hedged accordingly. I suspect CS could go bust and nobody would really care outside some chocolate shops in Geneva.
ReverendCounter said:
The US has already decided what is going to happen and on which day the wheels will be set in motion. Meeting of heads from various US + EU/UK governing bodies took place late November in the US.
Ask yourself why politicians, with significant funding from banks, would actively want to cut off that funding ?ReverendCounter said:
Quotes from the meeting: (nonsense snipped for clarity)
Let's assume a meeting of the various ESMA/FCA/ECB/Fed/SEC types did occur, and discussed financial stress situations and responses. That would certainly be a cause for concern and suspicion, unless it was maybe an explicit part of their remits and job descriptions to consider such things ?ReverendCounter said:
So, on a not too distant Friday evening, a financial event of extremely significant proportions is going to be announced with extreme measures being put in place to protect the US from fallout from UK/EU finance sector - wonder how bad it's going to get. US price of gold's been pretty interesting since November (CDBCs rolled out as a magic fix?).
Gold price today is below the highs of 2022, about the same as it was in November, and about 10% up on the pre-Ukraine invasion price. Time to cash in those profits and head to the beach.ReverendCounter said:
Meeting summarised by ChatGPT (apparently):
1) The FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) held a meeting to discuss strategy for an impending market collapse.
2) A Central Counterparty Clearing House (CCP) in Europe is at risk of default, possibly due to Credit Suisse.
3) If a CCP defaults, it could lead to a cascading default of all members relying on the existence of Credit Suisse.
4) The US relies on CCPs for international hedging, and a default could bring systemic risk to the US.
5) The US is being pushed by Europe to fix the problem, possibly indicating a larger systemic risk in Europe.
6) The FDIC is considering the use of a "systemic risk authority" to address the issue.
7) There is discussion of a "bail-in" strategy, in which losses are absorbed by the failing institution's creditors and shareholders rather than taxpayers.
8) The FDIC is also considering the use of a "single point of entry" strategy, in which a failing institution's assets and liabilities are transferred to a bridge bank.
1. Good, that's their job1) The FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) held a meeting to discuss strategy for an impending market collapse.
2) A Central Counterparty Clearing House (CCP) in Europe is at risk of default, possibly due to Credit Suisse.
3) If a CCP defaults, it could lead to a cascading default of all members relying on the existence of Credit Suisse.
4) The US relies on CCPs for international hedging, and a default could bring systemic risk to the US.
5) The US is being pushed by Europe to fix the problem, possibly indicating a larger systemic risk in Europe.
6) The FDIC is considering the use of a "systemic risk authority" to address the issue.
7) There is discussion of a "bail-in" strategy, in which losses are absorbed by the failing institution's creditors and shareholders rather than taxpayers.
8) The FDIC is also considering the use of a "single point of entry" strategy, in which a failing institution's assets and liabilities are transferred to a bridge bank.
2. Nobody would care if CS went under
3. Wrong way round, and also (2)
4. Parklife.
5. Why would the US 'fix' Credit Suisse's terrible business strategy
6. Good, that's their job
7. Good, that's their job
8. Good, that's their job
ReverendCounter said:
"Oh you owe 1.5 trillion shares of X stock? Nope. RIP. Only 300m shares exist." and then brokers just delete positions because the obligations are gone. Remember, the clearing corps job is to move securities between people who are owed. If the clearing corps fail, any trades going through them are wiped along with the contracts being destroyed.
That is such a fundamental lack of understanding of how clearing, settlement, margin, and good title work that it is not possible to fix in fewer than 10 pages. ReverendCounter said:
[some more nonsense snipped for clarity, aside from this gem]The tiny institutions will have to start closing positions ASAP so they aren't liquidated, pouring more fuel on the fire and pushing the price even higher.
So a core part of the thesis is that in a fire sale caused by central clearing services imploding, prices of assets being put up for emergency sale will rise ?Have to stop here, apparently I am needed to bring out my credit card and purchase one of the only assets with tangible value - a pair of Manolos.
Newc said:
Well obviously I shouldn't respond to the troll, especially the troll who is just cutting and posting other trolls, where no-one in the chain has any understanding of what they are talking about. On the other hand I am out with the Newcettes in the sales, and they are trying shoes, and I am very very drunkbored.
I'll give you Credit Suisse, which is a horror show, but it has been for a long time now and anybody dealing with it will be hedged accordingly. I suspect CS could go bust and nobody would really care outside some chocolate shops in Geneva.
2. Nobody would care if CS went under
3. Wrong way round, and also (2)
4. Parklife.
5. Why would the US 'fix' Credit Suisse's terrible business strategy
6. Good, that's their job
7. Good, that's their job
8. Good, that's their job
Have to stop here, apparently I am needed to bring out my credit card and purchase one of the only assets with tangible value - a pair of Manolos.
You must be bored. I got to Frank Dodd's and almost gave-up. It was sounding like Andrew Tate giving a Hustlers University speech about financial collapse. ReverendCounter said:
st's about to hit the fan, imminently. Frank Dodd Act about to be invoked in the US. Market collapse expected.
As above. Dodd-Frank not Frank Dodd's All Singing And Dancing Financial Services Legislation. Dodd-Frank doesn't need 'invoking', it is already an active piece of US law. It does contain provisions for the orderly wind down of bankrupt US institutions, such as none of t's about to hit the fan, imminently. Frank Dodd Act about to be invoked in the US. Market collapse expected. ReverendCounter said:
An EU/UK financial institution, possibly UK's LCH, could be Credit Suisse or Eurex Clearing AG - doesn't really matter, is set to default/collapse and trigger the US's Frank-Dodd Act.
which are covered in the EU/UK not the US. LCH and Eurex wouldn't collapse by themselves, they would be impacted by a bank's collapse, which you would know if you had any understanding of what those operations are and what they do. I'll give you Credit Suisse, which is a horror show, but it has been for a long time now and anybody dealing with it will be hedged accordingly. I suspect CS could go bust and nobody would really care outside some chocolate shops in Geneva.
ReverendCounter said:
The US has already decided what is going to happen and on which day the wheels will be set in motion. Meeting of heads from various US + EU/UK governing bodies took place late November in the US.
Ask yourself why politicians, with significant funding from banks, would actively want to cut off that funding ?ReverendCounter said:
Quotes from the meeting: (nonsense snipped for clarity)
Let's assume a meeting of the various ESMA/FCA/ECB/Fed/SEC types did occur, and discussed financial stress situations and responses. That would certainly be a cause for concern and suspicion, unless it was maybe an explicit part of their remits and job descriptions to consider such things ?ReverendCounter said:
So, on a not too distant Friday evening, a financial event of extremely significant proportions is going to be announced with extreme measures being put in place to protect the US from fallout from UK/EU finance sector - wonder how bad it's going to get. US price of gold's been pretty interesting since November (CDBCs rolled out as a magic fix?).
Gold price today is below the highs of 2022, about the same as it was in November, and about 10% up on the pre-Ukraine invasion price. Time to cash in those profits and head to the beach.ReverendCounter said:
Meeting summarised by ChatGPT (apparently):
1) The FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) held a meeting to discuss strategy for an impending market collapse.
2) A Central Counterparty Clearing House (CCP) in Europe is at risk of default, possibly due to Credit Suisse.
3) If a CCP defaults, it could lead to a cascading default of all members relying on the existence of Credit Suisse.
4) The US relies on CCPs for international hedging, and a default could bring systemic risk to the US.
5) The US is being pushed by Europe to fix the problem, possibly indicating a larger systemic risk in Europe.
6) The FDIC is considering the use of a "systemic risk authority" to address the issue.
7) There is discussion of a "bail-in" strategy, in which losses are absorbed by the failing institution's creditors and shareholders rather than taxpayers.
8) The FDIC is also considering the use of a "single point of entry" strategy, in which a failing institution's assets and liabilities are transferred to a bridge bank.
1. Good, that's their job1) The FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) held a meeting to discuss strategy for an impending market collapse.
2) A Central Counterparty Clearing House (CCP) in Europe is at risk of default, possibly due to Credit Suisse.
3) If a CCP defaults, it could lead to a cascading default of all members relying on the existence of Credit Suisse.
4) The US relies on CCPs for international hedging, and a default could bring systemic risk to the US.
5) The US is being pushed by Europe to fix the problem, possibly indicating a larger systemic risk in Europe.
6) The FDIC is considering the use of a "systemic risk authority" to address the issue.
7) There is discussion of a "bail-in" strategy, in which losses are absorbed by the failing institution's creditors and shareholders rather than taxpayers.
8) The FDIC is also considering the use of a "single point of entry" strategy, in which a failing institution's assets and liabilities are transferred to a bridge bank.
2. Nobody would care if CS went under
3. Wrong way round, and also (2)
4. Parklife.
5. Why would the US 'fix' Credit Suisse's terrible business strategy
6. Good, that's their job
7. Good, that's their job
8. Good, that's their job
ReverendCounter said:
"Oh you owe 1.5 trillion shares of X stock? Nope. RIP. Only 300m shares exist." and then brokers just delete positions because the obligations are gone. Remember, the clearing corps job is to move securities between people who are owed. If the clearing corps fail, any trades going through them are wiped along with the contracts being destroyed.
That is such a fundamental lack of understanding of how clearing, settlement, margin, and good title work that it is not possible to fix in fewer than 10 pages. ReverendCounter said:
[some more nonsense snipped for clarity, aside from this gem]The tiny institutions will have to start closing positions ASAP so they aren't liquidated, pouring more fuel on the fire and pushing the price even higher.
So a core part of the thesis is that in a fire sale caused by central clearing services imploding, prices of assets being put up for emergency sale will rise ?Have to stop here, apparently I am needed to bring out my credit card and purchase one of the only assets with tangible value - a pair of Manolos.
It's like someone's chopped many unrelated events into a single narrative. The OP could be talking about CS (unlikely to default), CCP and contagion (LCH unlikely to default), shadow banking, firesale velocity or even perhaps EURO fragmentation IF they get above 3.5% base - I really have no idea.
And if people really understand post crisis Finance - I'd suggest a single institution threat to stability is a non-existent threat (so even if CS was about to default) it's not an issue.
Simpo Two said:
It's usually the other way round (as in 08). I can't think the US cares much what happens in the UK.
Historical observation would suggest that. But we've had the UK govt sh*t the bed and cause intervention to prop up Gilts; and the ECB is perhaps running a Trichet vision right now - they might want to protect themselves from a Sovereign level screw-up. The problem with post 08 financial crisis regulatory clean up (or punishments), its implementation massively under prices Sovereign risks (or has been gamed to incentivise sketchy behaviour).Gassing Station | Finance | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff