Impending oil crisis.
Discussion
As many of you know I am usually a rather immature, silly fun loving person and very rarely act my 32 years.
The folowing is something that will effect all of us within the next 2 years, and ultimatley the rest of our lives;
It may be hard for you to comprehend but we have an finite amount of oil, meaning it will not last forever.
Oil is made up of hydrocarbons formed millions of years ago under enormous pressure within certain formations under our feet. (so to speak)
Don't be fooled into thinking that there are vast wells all over the world waiting to be discovered, the process requires a certain type of fault, combined with the right mixture of pressure and other minerals such as salt. (the salt forms a tight seal so pressure can build up and create "oil")
These are usually found under the sea, and the biggest of these is the Gulf. (ok, so now its not under the sea but it was millions of years ago)
The big oil fields have all been found, in fact they were all found in the 70's. 80% of the worlds oil comes from these old wells, while new discoveries are becoming less and less, and smaller and smaller.
In 1955 an expert www.hubbertpeak.com/summary.htm#suspectsaid (scroll down on this site for the made up reserves) the USA will reach its mid point in oil reserves by 1970, it was in fact 1973! The USA import 60% of there oil from overseas.
He also predicted that the rest of the world would reach a similar state in 1995. But he was wrong I hear you say. Well, yes. But he did not know that Suddam Hussein would invade Kuwait and effect oil production, and again years later and even now as Iraq is stopped from producing significant amounts for export. I will come to that later.
So, we have reached the midpoint for most of the world, apart from the Gulf states, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Iran etc, Russia and the newest area the Caspian sea, (which is being fougyt over by Russia and Uzbestan etc) the biggest being Saudi Arabia who holds about 60% of the worlds oil reserves.
The plot thickens;
Iraq, as it is being held by trade embargos, holds a third of the worlds oil supplies! That means we are at its mercy. So now you know why the USA, with help from the UK, wants to oust Suddam, even though he has done nothing to us in real terms. Its all to do with oil. The USA's economy in the last century has grown because of cheap oil, much like the rest of western society.
It is a well known fact that oil production is dwindling, new significant finds are rare, and most of the western world has gone past its midway point in reserves. I will not go into how these people come to estimate the reserves, but bare in mind that it is complicated and liable to exaggerations. Consider; When you go to the bank manager for money you inflate your assets, when the tax man comes along you plead poverty. The same goes for oil producers, who get an allowance to produce from OPEC based on their current reserves; or a third world country who gets a loan from the IMF (International monetary Fund) or a western power, based on its reserves.
Hold on don't panic, I am not saying that the end is nigh and we will be around for the last barrel of oil being pumped out of the last well. I am saying that as the reserves are used up oil prices will increase. Also, there are other types of oil that is not extracted as it is to expensive to do so, for now. And not forgetting that nasty man Suddam, who will control the oil supply along with the rest of the Gulf states will dictate what, and how much is produced and sold.
This above is regarding cheap oil, which even though it may not seem that way is what we are buying every time we fill up at the petrol station.
So basically it will have taken man 150 ish years to use something that mother nature has taken millions of years to form.
You have been warned.
The folowing is something that will effect all of us within the next 2 years, and ultimatley the rest of our lives;
It may be hard for you to comprehend but we have an finite amount of oil, meaning it will not last forever.
Oil is made up of hydrocarbons formed millions of years ago under enormous pressure within certain formations under our feet. (so to speak)
Don't be fooled into thinking that there are vast wells all over the world waiting to be discovered, the process requires a certain type of fault, combined with the right mixture of pressure and other minerals such as salt. (the salt forms a tight seal so pressure can build up and create "oil")
These are usually found under the sea, and the biggest of these is the Gulf. (ok, so now its not under the sea but it was millions of years ago)
The big oil fields have all been found, in fact they were all found in the 70's. 80% of the worlds oil comes from these old wells, while new discoveries are becoming less and less, and smaller and smaller.
In 1955 an expert www.hubbertpeak.com/summary.htm#suspectsaid (scroll down on this site for the made up reserves) the USA will reach its mid point in oil reserves by 1970, it was in fact 1973! The USA import 60% of there oil from overseas.
He also predicted that the rest of the world would reach a similar state in 1995. But he was wrong I hear you say. Well, yes. But he did not know that Suddam Hussein would invade Kuwait and effect oil production, and again years later and even now as Iraq is stopped from producing significant amounts for export. I will come to that later.
So, we have reached the midpoint for most of the world, apart from the Gulf states, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Iran etc, Russia and the newest area the Caspian sea, (which is being fougyt over by Russia and Uzbestan etc) the biggest being Saudi Arabia who holds about 60% of the worlds oil reserves.
The plot thickens;
Iraq, as it is being held by trade embargos, holds a third of the worlds oil supplies! That means we are at its mercy. So now you know why the USA, with help from the UK, wants to oust Suddam, even though he has done nothing to us in real terms. Its all to do with oil. The USA's economy in the last century has grown because of cheap oil, much like the rest of western society.
It is a well known fact that oil production is dwindling, new significant finds are rare, and most of the western world has gone past its midway point in reserves. I will not go into how these people come to estimate the reserves, but bare in mind that it is complicated and liable to exaggerations. Consider; When you go to the bank manager for money you inflate your assets, when the tax man comes along you plead poverty. The same goes for oil producers, who get an allowance to produce from OPEC based on their current reserves; or a third world country who gets a loan from the IMF (International monetary Fund) or a western power, based on its reserves.
Hold on don't panic, I am not saying that the end is nigh and we will be around for the last barrel of oil being pumped out of the last well. I am saying that as the reserves are used up oil prices will increase. Also, there are other types of oil that is not extracted as it is to expensive to do so, for now. And not forgetting that nasty man Suddam, who will control the oil supply along with the rest of the Gulf states will dictate what, and how much is produced and sold.
This above is regarding cheap oil, which even though it may not seem that way is what we are buying every time we fill up at the petrol station.
So basically it will have taken man 150 ish years to use something that mother nature has taken millions of years to form.
You have been warned.
The moral of the story is: Get out there and blat while you still can!!!! 
Don't buy a noddy car - you'll *have* to have one of those in 20-30 years time - might as well have a TVR while you still can.
As for fuel to run vehicles, well this vegetable matter fuelling seems to have enormous potential and immediately obvious benefits. Especially if you don't tell the Fat Comptroller about it
Don't buy a noddy car - you'll *have* to have one of those in 20-30 years time - might as well have a TVR while you still can.
As for fuel to run vehicles, well this vegetable matter fuelling seems to have enormous potential and immediately obvious benefits. Especially if you don't tell the Fat Comptroller about it
Quote: "In 1955 an expert said the USA will reach its mid point in oil reserves by 1970."
Seem to remember hearing about some other experts in the 1930s saying the world would have completely run out of oil around the same date.
Then there were those other experts at the turn of the last century who said it would be impossible to drive a car above 70mph because the air pressure would crush your chest.
So in the immortal words of The Hitchiker's Guide to the Galaxy (and Corporal Jones) don't panic! The internal combustion engine will be around for a few more years yet. I have it on expert authority...
Seem to remember hearing about some other experts in the 1930s saying the world would have completely run out of oil around the same date.
Then there were those other experts at the turn of the last century who said it would be impossible to drive a car above 70mph because the air pressure would crush your chest.
So in the immortal words of The Hitchiker's Guide to the Galaxy (and Corporal Jones) don't panic! The internal combustion engine will be around for a few more years yet. I have it on expert authority...
And of course we're assuming that the vast reserves of not so easy to get oil (which are down there but not economically expolitable at the moment) will remain out of reach.
Experience tells us that technology moves the game on, and the oil which is out of reach today will not remain so in the future.
Moving on veg oil / methanol / hydrogen are all viable alternatives. But until its economically necessary to move on, nobody will. Remember the car hasn't really advanced that much since henry ford first started banging out model t's. Yes todays cars are faster, cleaner and safer, but they are nothing more than tweaks to a very old design.
Experience tells us that technology moves the game on, and the oil which is out of reach today will not remain so in the future.
Moving on veg oil / methanol / hydrogen are all viable alternatives. But until its economically necessary to move on, nobody will. Remember the car hasn't really advanced that much since henry ford first started banging out model t's. Yes todays cars are faster, cleaner and safer, but they are nothing more than tweaks to a very old design.
johnelliott said: I think most peoples attitude to the oil situation is-
"I know it's not going to last forever, so I'm going to make damn sure I use my share"
Anyone know how much fuel it takes to fly a plane full of tourists to Florida and back?
John
A lot less than it costs to fly a plane load of Floridians to Heathrow and back I would wager!
Matt.
grahambell said:
So in the immortal words of The Hitchiker's Guide to the Galaxy (and Corporal Jones) don't panic! The internal combustion engine will be around for a few more years yet. I have it on expert authority...
And if you want to make it last longer get your house hooked up with solar panels (solar electric NOT solar heating) so we can shut down the oil burning power stations
I have heard from a Source in BP
That there is not enough oxygen remaining in the plannet to burn all the oils that they have left in the ground, not including other companies.
Also oil companies have found more intillegent ways of extracting oils, and engines are more efficient
Its the tree hugging hippess that are getting excited
Burn them is what I say Pity we can use thier hides as an fuel for cars
Keep it shiny shide up
That there is not enough oxygen remaining in the plannet to burn all the oils that they have left in the ground, not including other companies.
Also oil companies have found more intillegent ways of extracting oils, and engines are more efficient
Its the tree hugging hippess that are getting excited
Burn them is what I say
Pity we can use thier hides as an fuel for cars Keep it shiny shide up
Peritas said: I have heard from a Source in BP
That there is not enough oxygen remaining in the plannet to burn all the oils that they have left in the ground, not including other companies.
Eh?? Plants take in CO2 and put out oxygen, constantly replenishing, so thats a non-argument (unless he's talkin about a one of mutha-f@cker explosion!!)
mondeoman said:
Peritas said: I have heard from a Source in BP
That there is not enough oxygen remaining in the plannet to burn all the oils that they have left in the ground, not including other companies.
Eh?? Plants take in CO2 and put out oxygen, constantly replenishing, so thats a non-argument (unless he's talkin about a one of mutha-f@cker explosion!!)
True mondeoman, but dont forget that that plant might one day be fossil fuel itself?
When these fossil fuels are burnt they create CO2, but the amount of CO2 is far to much for even the most ravanous of plants to consume.
In short an unatural balance.
Not sure about not enough oxygen though
before you call me a tree hugger, I have a car that does 20mpg and I drive it like a nutter all the time. Just facing facts, oil will increase as reserves are used up.
How long until the £1 a litre?
You know, a quid a litre would be much easier to accept if tha was the price everywhere - the British being squeezed more than practically anyone else in the world is what I object to..
lpgrocks said:How long until the £1 a litre?
And at the risk of sounding like I have tofu where my meat should be, the bloody Yanks need to sort their consumption out more than any European country..
But will they? Errrrrmmmm.. no.
lpgrocks said:
mondeoman said:
Peritas said: I have heard from a Source in BP
That there is not enough oxygen remaining in the plannet to burn all the oils that they have left in the ground, not including other companies.
Eh?? Plants take in CO2 and put out oxygen, constantly replenishing, so thats a non-argument (unless he's talkin about a one of mutha-f@cker explosion!!)
True mondeoman, but dont forget that that plant might one day be fossil fuel itself?
QED
No problem
mondeoman said:
lpgrocks said:
mondeoman said:
Peritas said: I have heard from a Source in BP
That there is not enough oxygen remaining in the plannet to burn all the oils that they have left in the ground, not including other companies.
Eh?? Plants take in CO2 and put out oxygen, constantly replenishing, so thats a non-argument (unless he's talkin about a one of mutha-f@cker explosion!!)
True mondeoman, but dont forget that that plant might one day be fossil fuel itself?
QED
No problem
You can wait not me.
The big oil fields have all been found, in fact they were all found in the 70's. 80% of the worlds oil comes from these old wells, while new discoveries are becoming less and less, and smaller and smaller.
It's a bit of a bold statement to conclude from that that we'll never find any more big oil fields. Most of the world's deep oceans have never been explored, and there are thought to be potentially thousands of undiscovered species of marine life down there. Given that 75% of the world's surface is covered by oceans, and 90% of these are beyond the shallow continental shelves, who knows what else we might find there??
DrSeuss said:
The big oil fields have all been found, in fact they were all found in the 70's. 80% of the worlds oil comes from these old wells, while new discoveries are becoming less and less, and smaller and smaller.
It's a bit of a bold statement to conclude from that that we'll never find any more big oil fields. Most of the world's deep oceans have never been explored, and there are thought to be potentially thousands of undiscovered species of marine life down there. Given that 75% of the world's surface is covered by oceans, and 90% of these are beyond the shallow continental shelves, who knows what else we might find there??
So very true, and this is my point; Oil will become scarce and will force exploration of places not yet visited. The reason why the deep sea beds have not been drilled is cost, and technology.
If we are forced to explore these areas the costs will be passed down to the consumer.
My point being, cheap oil as we know it will finish.
If oil companies are imposing sanctions on car manufacturers to not produce too many alternative fuel powered veichles,
Why can't the petrolium companies manufacture petrol from carbon?
They know the molecular structure of petrol, there is no shortage of carbon, or hydrogen. and the petrolium companies are not exactly short of money or scientists?
It might seem a bit of a complicated thing to do, especially on the scale required, but why don't they try, and then we can sod Iraq and the rest of the middle-east and let them kill each other.
Obviousley, alternative fuel types are the best alternative, but they are still in the development stage. What about for the short-term?
Why can't the petrolium companies manufacture petrol from carbon?
They know the molecular structure of petrol, there is no shortage of carbon, or hydrogen. and the petrolium companies are not exactly short of money or scientists?
It might seem a bit of a complicated thing to do, especially on the scale required, but why don't they try, and then we can sod Iraq and the rest of the middle-east and let them kill each other.
Obviousley, alternative fuel types are the best alternative, but they are still in the development stage. What about for the short-term?
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