What effect the DB12 will have on DB11 values

[Budweiser]

Ok I want a DB11. Coupe V12/8 or Volante. £120K ( no more) budget no finance required.

With the DB12 now announced and very desirable, if you can afford one, what effect will the new model have on DB11 values.

Also with mortgages rates looking like they will rise this may also affect values as some people may (sadly) find themselves over extended.

I’m looking to buy from September this year, not before or even later to secure the best deal.

Thoughts?

[Simpo Two]

I'm not qualified to judge, but would think that now AM have ramped their prices up so much, it will help to support the values of the previous models. If you can't afford a DB12 you'll have more to spend on a DB11, and so on. And if Aston prices could be seen as matching Ferrari, we'll all benefit. I looked on Autotrader for Ferraris at £45K and there was only one.

Mind you Roma at £169K did look rather good, and I'm not a Ferrari fan...

[Jon39]

Often we have seen that successor models do not have much price effect on the earlier cars.
A new Aston will probably depreciate about 40% by year 3, so there would already be a big price gap between say a 3 year old DB11 and a new DB12. That shows what value used Astons represent and the depreciation from then on, becomes very much more gradual.

The difficulty for many buyers after deciding what specification they like, is being able to find the right and best car.

Enjoy your search.
Think you mentioned September. That is sometimes a dealer incentive month, when negotiating can work, but finding the right car is probably more important.

[Calinours]

DB11 V12 values appear to be stabilising, while DB11 V8 values appear to be slowly continuing to decline.

Checkout the classifieds, just search ebay or autotrader for ‘DB11’ - a curious thing appears to be starting to happen. V8 residual values were for years much stronger than V12 (the residuals made the PCP deals on the also cheaper to buy new V8 untouchable, possibly also helping to kill V12 sales). Now, however, the oldest/leggiest V8s are starting to touch or in one or two cases dip below the oldest/leggiest V12’s. It will be interesting to see if the trend continues.

Edited by Calinours on Friday 9th June 13:30

[AdamV12V]

I think your point sbout people being over extended on debt is more likely to have an adverse impact on db11 values (and indeed all used car values) than the db12 will. House prices are already tumbling faster by the week and theres been a distinct softening in used supercar prices too already of late.

Another key point is that its going to be a good 18-24 mths before there are a decemt number of used db12s on the market and as Simpo said its such a hefty price jump that will in itself proove a sufficient gap to distinguish used values between the two models.

If you like the db11 now and dont fancy a db12 anyway, dont feel the interest rates /cost of living worries will affect you too much either, then I’d say go for it!

[DB9VolanteDriver]

Expect DB11 v12 values to go up and v8 values to get crushed. If a v12 finds its way into DB12, then expect DB11 v12 values to plummet as well.

[JohnG1]

DB9VolanteDriver said:

Expect DB11 v12 values to go up and v8 values to get crushed. If a v12 finds its way into DB12, then expect DB11 v12 values to plummet as well.

Do you think AML have the money to open a V12 production line? Unless they bought the tools from AMEP Germany I would expect it would be pretty much impossible...

Please tell me I am wrong!

[LooneyTunes]

AdamV12V said:

I think your point sbout people being over extended on debt is more likely to have an adverse impact on db11 values (and indeed all used car values) than the db12 will. House prices are already tumbling faster by the week and theres been a distinct softening in used supercar prices too already of late.

Not seeing much change in house prices where I am, but a couple of things of note seen recently.

There seems to be relatively little stock on the AM approved system, especially when it comes to certain models. Go shopping for a Vanquish S and you’ll find very little choice (last week when I was browsing there wasn’t a single Volante on the AM approved site, and only one elsewhere in the PH classifieds).

Then you’ve got the price rises, which you’d expect to support used values… but then there’s the financing side.

Not into supercar territory, but looked on the Land Rover site to see what Range Rovers are going for at present (I am getting fed up if MrsLT borrowing mine and leaving it in a state) and was stunned to see some main dealer financing rates for used stock up at 17.9%! It really makes you wonder who is paying that sort of rate on used highish value cars if that’s indicative of where rates are/are heading. Some main dealers were showing lower rates (11.9%), and new orders at 8.9% but even at those lower rates the interest element adds significantly to the total cost.

I guess the question ends up being whether the pool of AM buyers is large and well enough insulated to write cheques and/or includes enough people who don’t care if the interest element of any purchase is higher than it will have been until recently.

[Jon39]

LooneyTunes said:

... to see what Range Rovers are going for at present (I am getting fed up of Mrs L T borrowing mine and leaving it in a state) ...

Oh how absolutely awful. Might training help perhaps?

I would treat her to a Dacia Duster SUV.
That would really teach her, not to leave your car in a state.
However, would probably be ignored by valet parking, when Mrs L T arrives at Fortnum and Mason.

You would be pleased with the finance too. Dacia refer to that as having, “Shockingly Affordable” monthlies. (APR 7.9%).

[Agent57]

DB9 is keeping DB7 prices low. Late DB7s and early DB9s seem to overlap on price (ignore the GT.)

Early DB11s still seem to cost more than late DB9s.

Given how loved the DB9 was and how underwhelming the DB11 was (relatively), I wonder whether the DB11 will get squeezed out in the future when those that want the latest will buy the DB12 and those that want a modern classic will buy the DB9?

[M1AGM]

Good question OP. DB11 prices have been falling through this year at a steady rate and I can’t see any reason for that to change. There are a lot of them about, the economic environment isn’t very good, interest rates are now forecast to go up further, and the DB12 has been launched which covers the bulk of the criticisms about the previous model. For your budget you could comfortably get an AMR model with change, which seems to be the one that holds its money the best out of the bunch. Plus as a cash buyer with no trade-in you will likely get a very good deal on a car if the dealer wants to reduce stock.

By September you may be looking at DBS with that budget, now that would be an interesting dilemma.

[Budweiser]

[quote=LooneyTunes]

Not seeing much change in house prices where I am.

Be patient it’s coming

[Calinours]

Agent57 said:

DB9 is keeping DB7 prices low. Late DB7s and early DB9s seem to overlap on price (ignore the GT.)

Early DB11s still seem to cost more than late DB9s.

Given how loved the DB9 was and how underwhelming the DB11 was (relatively), I wonder whether the DB11 will get squeezed out in the future when those that want the latest will buy the DB12 and those that want a modern classic will buy the DB9?

I’d venture that’s highly likely with the DB11 V8. There is however the matter of the unique engine that can be found in DB11 and not (for now, maybe never) in DB12, which is perhaps of some interest to the usual cohort of used Aston buyers - marque enthusiasts.

Say what you like about Palmer, but he did deliver the UK’s first refined fuel forced induction V12 since the Rolls Royce Merlin/Griffon. Yes the UK cast blocks and heads were still machined and it was assembled in a Ford facility in Germany, but it was AML designed, developed and bespoke. While that clearly means little to increasing numbers of new buyers, it will mean something to a significant proportion of second hand buyers. There are still loads of proud old dinosaurs knocking around

Edited by Calinours on Wednesday 7th June 10:00

[Budweiser]

Calinours said:

I’d venture that’s highly likely with the DB11 V8. There is however the matter of the unique engine that can be found in DB11 and not (for now, maybe never) in DB12, which is perhaps of some interest to the usual cohort of used Aston buyers - marque enthusiasts.

Say what you like about Palmer, but he did deliver the UK’s first refined fuel forced induction V12 since the Rolls Royce Merlin/Griffon. Yes the UK cast blocks and heads were still machined and it was assembled in a Ford facility in Germany, but it was AML designed, developed and bespoke. While that clearly means little to increasing numbers of new buyers, it will mean something to a significant proportion of second hand buyers. There are still loads of proud old dinosaurs knocking around

Edited by Calinours on Wednesday 7th June 09:49

An interesting thought, as the DB9 does and always will be an incredibly good looking car which does make it a possible contender. Maybe I should try one.

[LooneyTunes]

Jon39 said:

LooneyTunes said:

... to see what Range Rovers are going for at present (I am getting fed up of Mrs L T borrowing mine and leaving it in a state) ...

Oh how absolutely awful. Might training help perhaps?

I would treat her to a Dacia Duster SUV.
That would really teach her, not to leave your car in a state.
However, would probably be ignored by valet parking, when Mrs L T arrives at Fortnum and Mason.

You would be pleased with the finance too. Dacia refer to that as having, “Shockingly Affordable” monthlies. (APR 7.9%).

We've already got more utilitarian 4x4s, but sadly she seems to like my RR. Finance rates aren't an issue for us as it'll be an outright purchase, but I am wondering how long it'll take for dealers to reduce prices of vehicles in stock. You'd have to really want one to pay those rates on finance...

Shame the lead times are so long on new ones, but given how much she's lost on the damned thing I'm not willing to pay over list to correct her Taycan buying mistake.

Budweiser said:

LooneyTunes said:

Not seeing much change in house prices where I am.

Be patient it’s coming

I'd expected a bit of a dip by now, but they still seem to be shifting... will be interesting to see what it looks like in Q3/4.

With £120k to run at, you could also consider a Vanquish / Vanquish S coupe.

DB11 was what I thought I wanted at first, but after trying a Vanquish the 11 was no longer a contender.

[flow99]

LooneyTunes said:

I'd expected a bit of a dip by now, but they still seem to be shifting... will be interesting to see what it looks like in Q3/4.

With £120k to run at, you could also consider a Vanquish / Vanquish S coupe.

DB11 was what I thought I wanted at first, but after trying a Vanquish the 11 was no longer a contender.

Everyone has their prefernces, as a few years ago, and with 120k budget I did test drives in V12 Vantage and Vanquish, and bought V12 DB11.

[RobBucks]

Personally I think they will struggle to achieve this pricing on the DB12. I suspect that with the economy going the way it is, this could risk becoming something of a DBS (VH platform version) where they launch an expensive model at a time when people are more reluctant to spend these high values. Would not be surprised if before long we start to hear about dealer discounts, special deals etc., somewhat like the whole Vantage situation as AM struggles to hit their volume targets. Anyone buying one of these at list + options is going to take a massive bath.

[Westlondondriver]

Calinours said:

I’d venture that’s highly likely with the DB11 V8. There is however the matter of the unique engine that can be found in DB11 and not (for now, maybe never) in DB12, which is perhaps of some interest to the usual cohort of used Aston buyers - marque enthusiasts.

Say what you like about Palmer, but he did deliver the UK’s first refined fuel forced induction V12 since the Rolls Royce Merlin/Griffon. Yes the UK cast blocks and heads were still machined and it was assembled in a Ford facility in Germany, but it was AML designed, developed and bespoke. While that clearly means little to increasing numbers of new buyers, it will mean something to a significant proportion of second hand buyers. There are still loads of proud old dinosaurs knocking around

Edited by Calinours on Wednesday 7th June 10:00

Just come from a DB12 reveal at my local MD. Great car by the way. They had a senior product development guy from Aston Martin there and I did collar him about engines. He said definitely never a V12 in the DB12 or Vantage going forward but there would be future V12 Astons without doubt. He said the new plant was in Wellingboro, didn’t say who was making it but implied motorsport connections. The V12 will be developed from the current V12 so the Aston V12 will definitely live in and be UK made. Interestingly he said the V8 in the DB12 was a new generation on from the 707 engine with significant changes to comply with future emissions standards. He said that the new engine would find its way into the DBX707 in time.

[Calinours]

So it looks like Cosworth then

COSWORTH TECHNOLOGY
Mechanical Engineering
31-35 Booth Drive, Park Farm Industrial Estate, Wellingborough, Northamptonshire

And again further bits to suggest the AE31, heavily breathed on, new turbos etc and pushing 850-900hp will make a return in some sort of super expensive new Vanquish. Given the way things are going, £1k for a piece of paper, they will probably market for £4-500k base.

Edited by Calinours on Wednesday 7th June 21:51

[alscar]

Westlondondriver said:

Just come from a DB12 reveal at my local MD. Great car by the way. They had a senior product development guy from Aston Martin there and I did collar him about engines. He said definitely never a V12 in the DB12 or Vantage going forward but there would be future V12 Astons without doubt.

I’m looking forward to seeing it tonight.
Aston do have form saying one thing and then doing another though and I cannot help but think the V12 debacle will be no different.
As has already been remarked , in the current climate the DB12 could well be a tough sell at the reported rrp - in V8 only guise it will impact on used DB11 V8 a bit but then if a V12 is introduced it will hurt both the DB11 version and of course then the new V8.
Either way depreciation will be scary and I would guess over 12 months along the lines of perhaps the DBS curve.
As a shareholder I hope I’m wrong obviously !