Have we peaked?
Discussion
At times it feels like there isn't anything else to invent, that we've mastered the natural world and the materials it provides for us. On so many fronts progress now is minimal, almost as if there are no more advances we can make.
Maybe this is just a lack of imagination on my behalf? If people in the 1920s thought the invention of the wireless, electric lighting and aviation were the limits it may well have been beyond their imagination to think about nuclear power and space travel.
Look at where we are with everything:
1. Nuclear - we want to make fusion work but that's been a dream for so long that it is beginning to look like it may never happen.
2. Trains - maglev is the future but we're not doing it. We're actually cancelling new rail projects.
3. Phasing out fossil fuels - we're trying, with heatpumps and electric cars but battery technology seems to be making microscopic advances beyond lithium
4. Aviation, probably won't ever be electric unless a radical new battery technology comes on the scene. So we peaked with Concorde and that was retired 20 years ago
5. Shipping - the biggest ever ship was scrapped in 2010
6. Space travel - the moon seems to be about as far as we can go, Mars is a possibility but it has been talked about for decades without any attempts other than rovers
7. Physics, we're still trying to guess what the smallest thing is and the research does not seem to be moving forward - where is the god particle?
8. War - with a nuclear bomb we can wipe out entire countries. There's no desire for greater destructive power and nor should there be.
9. Hydrogen, we know it's everywhere and yet for one reason or another we cannot harness it
10. Democracy, we know how to do this perfectly but prefer to be at least a little bit corrupt
That's not to say we've not made a good job of it... but where is the new stuff... everything we've been doing for the last 40-odd years is just slightly more efficient versions of things we could already do. Have we peaked?
Maybe this is just a lack of imagination on my behalf? If people in the 1920s thought the invention of the wireless, electric lighting and aviation were the limits it may well have been beyond their imagination to think about nuclear power and space travel.
Look at where we are with everything:
1. Nuclear - we want to make fusion work but that's been a dream for so long that it is beginning to look like it may never happen.
2. Trains - maglev is the future but we're not doing it. We're actually cancelling new rail projects.
3. Phasing out fossil fuels - we're trying, with heatpumps and electric cars but battery technology seems to be making microscopic advances beyond lithium
4. Aviation, probably won't ever be electric unless a radical new battery technology comes on the scene. So we peaked with Concorde and that was retired 20 years ago
5. Shipping - the biggest ever ship was scrapped in 2010
6. Space travel - the moon seems to be about as far as we can go, Mars is a possibility but it has been talked about for decades without any attempts other than rovers
7. Physics, we're still trying to guess what the smallest thing is and the research does not seem to be moving forward - where is the god particle?
8. War - with a nuclear bomb we can wipe out entire countries. There's no desire for greater destructive power and nor should there be.
9. Hydrogen, we know it's everywhere and yet for one reason or another we cannot harness it
10. Democracy, we know how to do this perfectly but prefer to be at least a little bit corrupt
That's not to say we've not made a good job of it... but where is the new stuff... everything we've been doing for the last 40-odd years is just slightly more efficient versions of things we could already do. Have we peaked?
Edited by ingenieur on Tuesday 7th November 09:00
As a civilisation as a whole maybe we have, at least in terms of technology.
A bit like you have mentioned with democracy we know what a good society can look like yet we are happy not even looking after our own neighbours, environment, animals, even play parks and fence panels aren't beneath being destroyed by someone these days.
On non-holistic/individual level my opinion is that the peak was somewhere from 1950-2005 depending on where you lived and what you liked doing.
I work in tech however and there has been multiple "fads" in recent years some with more promise than others, blockchain, VR, AI but they don't really do anything to enhance society or our quality of life. Most business owners want to train people in VR to save money, use AI to replace people and use blockchain technology for anything that will make money.
The internet really started out as a knowledge share, a technology for good if you like, most of the technologies today are only pushed if it is cost effective. Unfortunately that goes back to the theme of what you have said.
A bit like you have mentioned with democracy we know what a good society can look like yet we are happy not even looking after our own neighbours, environment, animals, even play parks and fence panels aren't beneath being destroyed by someone these days.
On non-holistic/individual level my opinion is that the peak was somewhere from 1950-2005 depending on where you lived and what you liked doing.
I work in tech however and there has been multiple "fads" in recent years some with more promise than others, blockchain, VR, AI but they don't really do anything to enhance society or our quality of life. Most business owners want to train people in VR to save money, use AI to replace people and use blockchain technology for anything that will make money.
The internet really started out as a knowledge share, a technology for good if you like, most of the technologies today are only pushed if it is cost effective. Unfortunately that goes back to the theme of what you have said.
Absolutely not..!!
A lack of imagination and knowledge might mean it looks like we’ve peaked but the reality is we really really haven’t. In the past we had the Industrial Revolution etc. and now we’ve entered the Tech Revolution. This will lead to many new innovations that will benefit our communities. I do think that history won’t look back at this current period in time particularly favourably.
When you look at the internet, probably one of the most important inventions ever, how many of us said back in 1983 (or 1969?) “WOW, this internet thing is gonna change our lives..!!”? I think big engineering projects are more difficult now especially in the U.K. but if we look at places like the USA, China or Saudi they can still churn out impressive engineering achievements.
Is it possible we have this view in the U.K. because we are a declining country, both economically and politically?
A lack of imagination and knowledge might mean it looks like we’ve peaked but the reality is we really really haven’t. In the past we had the Industrial Revolution etc. and now we’ve entered the Tech Revolution. This will lead to many new innovations that will benefit our communities. I do think that history won’t look back at this current period in time particularly favourably.
When you look at the internet, probably one of the most important inventions ever, how many of us said back in 1983 (or 1969?) “WOW, this internet thing is gonna change our lives..!!”? I think big engineering projects are more difficult now especially in the U.K. but if we look at places like the USA, China or Saudi they can still churn out impressive engineering achievements.
Is it possible we have this view in the U.K. because we are a declining country, both economically and politically?
zaanztepS said:
I'm guessing you haven't been following AI recently, it's made huge advances in the past couple of years. I believe we are at a tiny fraction of what is possible in terms of inventions, we are actually pretty primitive when you think of what is potentially possible.
What is potentially possible?Have we peaked? What have "we" achieved in the last few years?
Space launch costs down from $50k/kg (shuttle) $1500/kg (Falcon heavy)
James Webb Space Telescope
5000 exoplanets
RNA vaccines for Dengue fever and Malaria
AI that can spot cancers
Enzymes that eat plastic
Gene modification
Protein folding leading to new drugs
Several new particles discovered
Bound to be loads more.
Space launch costs down from $50k/kg (shuttle) $1500/kg (Falcon heavy)
James Webb Space Telescope
5000 exoplanets
RNA vaccines for Dengue fever and Malaria
AI that can spot cancers
Enzymes that eat plastic
Gene modification
Protein folding leading to new drugs
Several new particles discovered
Bound to be loads more.
Humans always find a way by innovation. Of the c10 points you list many have blockers on them that require innovation to surpass. Sometimes the blocker is complex and the innovation takes time.
I don't think we've peaked. Look how far we have come with society for example, it is feasible one day that we'll all get along as human intelligence grows from it's still basic level (wars, fighting, unnecessary death, 99% people are tunnel visioned on their insular "9-5 "lives rather than broader thought) and we will achieve the things on your list and much more.
I don't think we've peaked. Look how far we have come with society for example, it is feasible one day that we'll all get along as human intelligence grows from it's still basic level (wars, fighting, unnecessary death, 99% people are tunnel visioned on their insular "9-5 "lives rather than broader thought) and we will achieve the things on your list and much more.
Sadly to make large breakthroughs in science, engineering etc takes vast amounts of money.
Apart from US no other country has invested in these sorts of projects. Projects where there is no current clear moeny making opportunity.
I'm not talking about the sort of projects that are infrastructure projects like building roads or dams (China, Saudi).
I'm not talking about the sort of projects that are just pure willy waving like landing on the moon (India).
JWST is just such a project. Vast amounts of money. Decades to launch. New knowledge and understanding of the universe gained.
Apart from US no other country has invested in these sorts of projects. Projects where there is no current clear moeny making opportunity.
I'm not talking about the sort of projects that are infrastructure projects like building roads or dams (China, Saudi).
I'm not talking about the sort of projects that are just pure willy waving like landing on the moon (India).
JWST is just such a project. Vast amounts of money. Decades to launch. New knowledge and understanding of the universe gained.
Energy storage density. Every single aspect of society is retarded by the inability to store energy efficiently. Even the modern battery cell is merely an evolution of the 140 year old chemical battery. The point at which we finally crack efficient energy storage will see a larger and quicker change than was seen with the smart phone, the internet or the car. Being able to store large amounts of energy in tiny batteries will drive the largest period of innovation yet seen.
Most importantly, we'll be able to hail the pub drone to come and pick us up from the back garden and drop us home.
Most importantly, we'll be able to hail the pub drone to come and pick us up from the back garden and drop us home.
I think it can feel like this after so long with oil, where we had a huge explosion of new materials and uses that has now diminished.
It's hard to imagine the time before oil and then upon oils discovery just what it would lead to!?
Whilst we are bombarded with sport, music and reality TV there are still many thousands of labcoats probing at the outer reaches of our current understanding. That hadron collider was a huge undertaking and outcomes of it's experiments are unknown but could possibly unearth a new technology or understanding of physics that allows advances.
Matter is energy, energy is pretty much king, so an advance in the ease at which we can release/harness energy would/could be our next leap? Human progress has largely relied on these improvements.
It is very hard to think of the future improvements now because we are all limited by current thinking.
What would the Wright brothers have projected for flight in 70 years? I doubt even they could have imagined a jet engine or that 100 people could be transported in luxury from New york to London at 60,000ft in 3 hours!?
We make new discoveries and exploit them all the time, and occasionally one of them gives us a huge leap. We aren't likely going to do it in our day jobs and it's why I think it's a travesty that the area of science is generally so underappreciated/unapplauded.
It's hard to imagine the time before oil and then upon oils discovery just what it would lead to!?
Whilst we are bombarded with sport, music and reality TV there are still many thousands of labcoats probing at the outer reaches of our current understanding. That hadron collider was a huge undertaking and outcomes of it's experiments are unknown but could possibly unearth a new technology or understanding of physics that allows advances.
Matter is energy, energy is pretty much king, so an advance in the ease at which we can release/harness energy would/could be our next leap? Human progress has largely relied on these improvements.
It is very hard to think of the future improvements now because we are all limited by current thinking.
What would the Wright brothers have projected for flight in 70 years? I doubt even they could have imagined a jet engine or that 100 people could be transported in luxury from New york to London at 60,000ft in 3 hours!?
We make new discoveries and exploit them all the time, and occasionally one of them gives us a huge leap. We aren't likely going to do it in our day jobs and it's why I think it's a travesty that the area of science is generally so underappreciated/unapplauded.
EmailAddress said:
What is potentially possible?
So very much...- AI that can detect cancer with far great accuracy and sensitivity than an expert (Probably a couple year off this one)
- Curing all disease including death (100 percent possible)
- Increasing the efficiency of many things to what is physically possible, i.e solar
- Fully automated, more capable than human robots (AI side isn't far off)
- Significantly faster and safer modes of travel
- Increasing computing power
- 3D printers for anything, like the replicators from Star Trek (no reason this isn't possible)
Just some random examples. Really anything that doesn't break the laws of physics is possible and our understanding of physics is likely very basic compared to the full picture. Things we thought impossible in the past have become possible.
Edited by zaanztepS on Tuesday 7th November 10:02
Scootersp said:
What would the Wright brothers have projected for flight in 70 years? I doubt even they could have imagined a jet engine or that 100 people could be transported in luxury from New york to London at 60,000ft in 3 hours!?
Always hard to see what impact new technology will have until it's been around a while."I think there's a world market for maybe five computers." - Chairman of IBM
“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” - Chairman of DEC
EmailAddress said:
zaanztepS said:
I'm guessing you haven't been following AI recently, it's made huge advances in the past couple of years. I believe we are at a tiny fraction of what is possible in terms of inventions, we are actually pretty primitive when you think of what is potentially possible.
What is potentially possible?Convince me otherwise!
Niponeoff said:
ha ha, the first thing i saw was an advert for Gaviscon, thought that was a strange thing to link to...I often ponder this! I think it's easy think about the current tech getting faster & more efficient. Sci Fi movies entice us with flying cars, laser beams & transporters so it feels like everything's been thought of, even if it's not yet possible.
What really bakes my noodle is trying to think of things that we couldn't possible imagine!
Go back 100 years and show the average person some of todays tech & they'd be trying to burn you as some kind of witch. 100 years ago would anyone have been able to comprehend something like a smart phone? What might be coming in the next 100 years that would have the same effect on me if I was shown it by man from the future?
What really bakes my noodle is trying to think of things that we couldn't possible imagine!
Go back 100 years and show the average person some of todays tech & they'd be trying to burn you as some kind of witch. 100 years ago would anyone have been able to comprehend something like a smart phone? What might be coming in the next 100 years that would have the same effect on me if I was shown it by man from the future?
Answer to the OP question - No.
You have to distinguish between engineering and theory, too.
Most of the OP list are engineering issues. That is, it is known that it can be done, but it is difficult, and possibly not cost-effective, to do them.
Big human advances come from the theory - things we had no idea about until someone comes into their lab one morning and utters the most alluring phrase in science: "hmm, that's odd".
That day before that happened, humanity had no idea about radioactivity, quantum mechanics, semiconductors, radio, neutrinos, gravity as a force, DNA, evolution, genetic inheritance, etc.
What will be the next thing ? Impossible to say, because it's not even conceived until it's discovered. How about inverse gravity ? Or 'alchemy' - non-radioactive editing of atoms to create other elements ? Genes for enhanced memory ? Enhanced evolution to get rid of the craving for religion ? A Mr Fusion ? Maybe even transparent aluminium, who knows.
You have to distinguish between engineering and theory, too.
Most of the OP list are engineering issues. That is, it is known that it can be done, but it is difficult, and possibly not cost-effective, to do them.
Big human advances come from the theory - things we had no idea about until someone comes into their lab one morning and utters the most alluring phrase in science: "hmm, that's odd".
That day before that happened, humanity had no idea about radioactivity, quantum mechanics, semiconductors, radio, neutrinos, gravity as a force, DNA, evolution, genetic inheritance, etc.
What will be the next thing ? Impossible to say, because it's not even conceived until it's discovered. How about inverse gravity ? Or 'alchemy' - non-radioactive editing of atoms to create other elements ? Genes for enhanced memory ? Enhanced evolution to get rid of the craving for religion ? A Mr Fusion ? Maybe even transparent aluminium, who knows.
Newc said:
Answer to the OP question - No.
You have to distinguish between engineering and theory, too.
Most of the OP list are engineering issues. That is, it is known that it can be done, but it is difficult, and possibly not cost-effective, to do them.
Big human advances come from the theory - things we had no idea about until someone comes into their lab one morning and utters the most alluring phrase in science: "hmm, that's odd".
That day before that happened, humanity had no idea about radioactivity, quantum mechanics, semiconductors, radio, neutrinos, gravity as a force, DNA, evolution, genetic inheritance, etc.
What will be the next thing ? Impossible to say, because it's not even conceived until it's discovered. How about inverse gravity ? Or 'alchemy' - non-radioactive editing of atoms to create other elements ? Genes for enhanced memory ? Enhanced evolution to get rid of the craving for religion ? A Mr Fusion ? Maybe even transparent aluminium, who knows.
Regards craving for religion, I think we're biologically wired to have space in our minds for worship and something we can't touch but are sure exists. That's putting it crudely. With the dissolution of organised religion in the west we have replaced it with desire for products. Are you from the iPhone sect? You have to distinguish between engineering and theory, too.
Most of the OP list are engineering issues. That is, it is known that it can be done, but it is difficult, and possibly not cost-effective, to do them.
Big human advances come from the theory - things we had no idea about until someone comes into their lab one morning and utters the most alluring phrase in science: "hmm, that's odd".
That day before that happened, humanity had no idea about radioactivity, quantum mechanics, semiconductors, radio, neutrinos, gravity as a force, DNA, evolution, genetic inheritance, etc.
What will be the next thing ? Impossible to say, because it's not even conceived until it's discovered. How about inverse gravity ? Or 'alchemy' - non-radioactive editing of atoms to create other elements ? Genes for enhanced memory ? Enhanced evolution to get rid of the craving for religion ? A Mr Fusion ? Maybe even transparent aluminium, who knows.
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