Which fund?
Author
Discussion

LordGrover

Original Poster:

34,092 posts

236 months

Thursday 30th November 2023
quotequote all
Probably a daft question, but I'll ask anyway...

Within my pension I'm able to select which fund or combination of funds in which to invest/buy.
As markets are currently relatively low, should I be buying the worst performing expecting them to improve more over time, or those that are performing better so less room to improve?
I'm talking relatively short term as I'm hoping/expecting to retire 2029.

stuthemong

2,517 posts

241 months

Thursday 30th November 2023
quotequote all
You should not be taking much risk of retiring that soon.

Most lifestyle funds would heavily bias away from
Equities that close to retirement , normally to “low risk bonds”, which have been historically but recently took a kicking which was unlucky for recent retirees.

What sort of quantum are you talking about here,
If it’s a few 100k or more it may be worth a bit more thought than if it’s 50k & so you have other income coming or just this and state pension and how long do you intend/expect to live?

smile

Honeywell

1,623 posts

122 months

Thursday 30th November 2023
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I have just switched £750k out of City of London fund (FTSE100 based) into Vanguard government bond ETF's.

The annual Coupon is as much as the dividend yield on equity funds and the bond market is 33% down in the last two years. When interest rates go down (as they will) there is substantial scope for a repricing of Gilts.

The risk is low, the annual coupon is OK, the upside is potentially large - what is not to like?

LordGrover

Original Poster:

34,092 posts

236 months

Thursday 30th November 2023
quotequote all
Yep, the default glidepath was very risk averse, so I switched it. paperbag I left it rather late to take my pension seriously so feel the need to take a chance to make it worthwhile.

Currently a little north of £100k, putting in £2,000 /month (inc employers miserly 3%).
Including state pension I'd like to see £26,000 p.a. rising by 2.5% p.a., plus additional £1,200 p.a. first five years. Hoping this would last me until I'm 80 or more, at which time I'm expecting to have to get by on state pension.
According to online calculators this should be do-able.

okgo

41,636 posts

222 months

Thursday 30th November 2023
quotequote all
Markets are not low currently though are they? US is near all time high.

Jawls

788 posts

75 months

Thursday 30th November 2023
quotequote all
What does your investment strategy (and drawdown strategy, given that you’re relatively close to retirement) say?

Drawdown but really important. If you’re going to be invested another 30 years, this is totally different to if you’re going to buy an annuity.

Do what your strategy says. Other people’s strategy might not be appropriate for you.

If you don’t have a strategy / plan, get one.

Edited by Jawls on Thursday 30th November 11:36

bmwmike

8,329 posts

132 months

Thursday 30th November 2023
quotequote all
Honeywell said:
I have just switched £750k out of City of London fund (FTSE100 based) into [b]Vanguard government bond ETF's.

The annual Coupon is as much as the dividend yield on equity funds and the bond market is 33% down in the last two years. When interest rates go down (as they will) there is substantial scope for a repricing of Gilts.

The risk is low, the annual coupon is OK, the upside is potentially large - what is not to like?
Which ETF out of interest?

I see this one on Vanguard but its a fund not an ETF.

Vanguard U.K. Government Bond Index Fund GBP Acc ISIN: IE00B1S75374

ETFs I can find are:

USD Emerging Markets Government Bond UCITS ETF - Accumulating (VEMA)

EUR Eurozone Government Bond UCITS ETF - Accumulating (VETA)

Just making sure i'm not missing something as I find vanguard a little hit and miss to find stuff.

Honeywell

1,623 posts

122 months

Thursday 30th November 2023
quotequote all
Yeah it's the Eurozone Bond on an ETF. Thats 10% of what I bought. The rest was UK Gilt fund. Down 37% in three years.


Honeywell

1,623 posts

122 months

bmwmike

8,329 posts

132 months

Thursday 30th November 2023
quotequote all
Honeywell said:
Thanks - that's the one i've got too.

jeff m

4,066 posts

282 months

Friday 1st December 2023
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You may expect to retire in '29....I assume you do not intend to die the same year !

There is no big switch that is thrown, you may in fact live for another 30 years after that date.

It's an ongoing process, however, you should set yourself a target for '89. Sufficient funds that you can draw down on each Month to supplement your other incomes.

Many of these "experts" omit the fact that many tasks like painting a ceiling will be done by a person you need to pay.
FYI how do feel in the morning after a skinful....well that's how some of us oldies feel every morning. Some things are just not palatable, they need to be contracted out.. It costs money.
Also at some point you or your spouse may..err, will die and reduce your pension income, the house outgoings will remain the same, possibly leaving you in the crapper if you don't account for it.

Current investment choices....well flavour of the Month is Japan, but as you are in the position of having to ask, A World index fund might make sense.

Jon39

14,555 posts

167 months

Friday 1st December 2023
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Honeywell said:
... When interest rates go down (as they will) there is substantial scope for a repricing of Gilts. ...

You do seem very certain about that.
Do you know what the very long-term average, Bank of England interest (base) rate is ?


Simpo Two

91,611 posts

289 months

Friday 1st December 2023
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Jon39 said:

Honeywell said:
... When interest rates go down (as they will) there is substantial scope for a repricing of Gilts. ...

You do seem very certain about that.
Do you know what the very long-term average, Bank of England interest (base) rate is ?
I'll throw my hat in the ring. You don't say how many years is 'very long term' but I'll go for 6% in the sweepstake. Adjust the term until you get six, there's a good chap smile

BoRED S2upid

20,996 posts

264 months

Friday 1st December 2023
quotequote all
okgo said:
Markets are not low currently though are they? US is near all time high.
And going higher IMO because America.

Phooey

13,542 posts

193 months

Friday 1st December 2023
quotequote all
Jon39 said:

You do seem very certain about that.
Do you know what the very long-term average, Bank of England interest (base) rate is ?
Interest rates are a tool used to restrict or stimulate the economy, at some point they will be cut, and then at some point they will rise again. At the moment, coming off a long period of historical low interest rates you could say they are in a restrictive range. (Insert lag effect). The long term average probably wouldn’t sit today.

Edited by Phooey on Friday 1st December 22:31

NickZ24

301 posts

91 months

Friday 1st December 2023
quotequote all
You should look around what is there on reliable funds.
https://wellfound.com/ before it was angel.co
Crowd funding organisations. Places like auxmoney.com
Peer 2 peer lending
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/09...

Jon39

14,555 posts

167 months

Friday 1st December 2023
quotequote all

Phooey said:
Jon39 said:
You do seem very certain about that.
Do you know what the very long-term average, Bank of England interest (base) rate is ?
Interest rates are a tool used to restrict or stimulate the economy, at some point they will be cut, and then at some point they will rise again. At the moment, coming off a long period of historical low interest rates you could say they are in a restrictive range. (Insert lag effect). The long term average probably wouldn’t sit today.

There might be some (a youger generation) who perhaps became accustomed to 0.25% and thought/think of that as a fairly normal interest rate, to which we will soon return. They will be disappointed, unless there is a huge economic upset.

The point you mention (to restrict) was of course denied to the BoE during that lengthy period, unless they had gone to negative interest rates, which I am sure must have been their very last card. Imagine savers reaction, having to pay interest for a bank to keep their money. While cash is still legal tender, they would have had, 'under the bed' as a free alternative. No smoking in bed though. - smile


LeoSayer

7,713 posts

268 months

Saturday 2nd December 2023
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Honeywell said:
I have just switched £750k out of City of London fund (FTSE100 based) into Vanguard government bond ETF's.

The annual Coupon is as much as the dividend yield on equity funds and the bond market is 33% down in the last two years. When interest rates go down (as they will) there is substantial scope for a repricing of Gilts.

The risk is low, the annual coupon is OK, the upside is potentially large - what is not to like?
Are there no plausible scenarios that would cause interest rates go up?

Mazinbrum

1,235 posts

202 months

Saturday 2nd December 2023
quotequote all
okgo said:
Markets are not low currently though are they? US is near all time high.
And will keep going higher, always has done.
Inflation devalues your money so if you aren't riding the ever increasing markets you're losing money over the long term.

bitchstewie

64,412 posts

234 months

Saturday 2nd December 2023
quotequote all
Usual stuff about time horizon and appetite for risk aside look at a global index and ask yourself how many times in history you might have thought "not sure I should buy it now it's near an all time high".

Then look what happened to the right of that point.