2024 Economy Predictions

[Hippea]

What are your economic predictions for 2024?

Continued high interest rates? Economic boom? Financial collapse?

[dalenorth]

I think it’ll be a fairly steady year, with a potential rate decrease Q3. People will get used to the increased cost of living and will start buying property again.

[dalenorth]

I think it’ll be a fairly steady year, with a potential rate decrease Q3. People will get used to the increased cost of living and will start buying property again.

[brickwall]

Worldwide, overall average will be much the same as 2023.
Vs 2023:
- China improved but nowhere back to historic levels
- US improved or flat
- Europe flat or down
- APAC ex china flat or down

UK specifically I think will be essentially flat
- Inflation will come down but not to target - will still be running at 3-4%. Govt will apply pressure on BoE to reduce rates, but they’ll just follow/lag whatever the US Fed does to defend the £ and avoid importing inflation
- Unemployment will rise a little (which will help cool wage inflation), but the labour market will remain fairly tight as immigration numbers fall
- Growth (if any) will be exceptionally underwhelming

[Simpo Two]

There's a general election due. What will the prospect (and likelihood) of a Labour win do to the UK markets?

[Ecosseven]

Simpo Two said:

There's a general election due. What will the prospect (and likelihood) of a Labour win do to the UK markets?

Good question. In my opinion, probably not much as there will be so little headroom for the Government to do anything too radical. If an incoming Labour Government was inheriting a strong economy and a lower tax base then it may be different but that's not going to be the case at the time of the next election.

[anonymous-user]

The economy to go into recession in the new year.

Car sales will not rebound in the new year and car dealers and manufacturers start to panic and have to offer discounts, 0% finance and dealer contributions.

More and businesses to throw in the towel and for the high street to have more and more empty shops.

Interest rates cut by 0.25% in April with a rates being 4.25% by the end of the year.

[covmutley]

'Survive to 25'.

Lag on the interest rate rises will filter through and we will get a recession, although easing interest rates will mean it wont be too bad. Im certainly now feeling the pinch in our house and were probably classed a high earners.

From what I can see, most housebuilders havent gone for mass lay offs (correct me If Im wrong) and are presumably thinking abut the long term and general availability of decent staff.

It feels like the longest slowest recession. I suppose everyone could see it, whereas 2008/9 was a sharp shock.

[covmutley]

Ecosseven said:

Simpo Two said:

There's a general election due. What will the prospect (and likelihood) of a Labour win do to the UK markets?

Good question. In my opinion, probably not much as there will be so little headroom for the Government to do anything too radical. If an incoming Labour Government was inheriting a strong economy and a lower tax base then it may be different but that's not going to be the case at the time of the next election.

Agreed. Starmer is a long way from Corbyn and McDonnel. Meanwhile conservatives have ramped up the tax take massively.

Labours current attacks on the tories seem to be that immigration and taxes are both too high....... go figure.... Cant see much between them to be honest. They are all social media led, short termists with no guts to outline a proper long term plan that is reaslistic.

[jrb43]

covmutley said:

Ecosseven said:

Simpo Two said:

There's a general election due. What will the prospect (and likelihood) of a Labour win do to the UK markets?

Good question. In my opinion, probably not much as there will be so little headroom for the Government to do anything too radical. If an incoming Labour Government was inheriting a strong economy and a lower tax base then it may be different but that's not going to be the case at the time of the next election.

Agreed. Starmer is a long way from Corbyn and McDonnel. Meanwhile conservatives have ramped up the tax take massively.

Labours current attacks on the tories seem to be that immigration and taxes are both too high....... go figure.... Cant see much between them to be honest. They are all social media led, short termists with no guts to outline a proper long term plan that is reaslistic.

Add in that Starmer has been in the press saying what a good egg Mrs Thatcher was...

Agreed, Labour will probably win an Autumn election (early enough in the season that the elderly Conservative voters can still toddle off to a polling station) but I'm not clear Starmer has any different ideas or even any real appetite to be in government. The Spring budget will be the last Conservative hurrah so I'm guessing a headline cut in basic rate tax and probably fuel duty as well which will be the last desperate bid to get inflation down.

[ferret50]

jrb43 said:

Add in that Starmer has been in the press saying what a good egg Mrs Thatcher was...

Agreed, Labour will probably win an Autumn election (early enough in the season that the elderly Conservative voters can still toddle off to a polling station) but I'm not clear Starmer has any different ideas or even any real appetite to be in government. The Spring budget will be the last Conservative hurrah so I'm guessing a headline cut in basic rate tax and probably fuel duty as well which will be the last desperate bid to get inflation down.

That might, just, possibly be enough to see a minority Tory 'victory', but who will prop them up?

A week is a long time in politics, so a givaway spring budget followed by an early summer GE?

But in that senario, who will follow Ikea Starmer?

[Timothy Bucktu]

Simpo Two said:

There's a general election due. What will the prospect (and likelihood) of a Labour win do to the UK markets?

We'll leap from one incompetent stshow, to another. I cannot see anything from Sir K and the incompetent muppets sitting beside him making anyone think otherwise?
The future is extremely bleak for the UK economy, no matter how many times you see Richi with his sleeves rolled up getting on with the job.
House prices aren't moving. Inflation is still high. More and more people won't have any money due to the high interest rate.
Still, could be worse.

[TwigtheWonderkid]

Doesn't it depend largely on how the current Middle East conflict plays out. Will it calm down, or escalate? Same with Ukraine. And China/Taiwan. Good luck to anyone knowing where we'll be as a world this time next year.

[OoopsVoss]

Aneamic growth. Probably sub 0.5%, if we are lucky. Rates will likely start reducing mid year, probably about the same time the Fed does. Their debt balloon is starting get some attention. I think they need to raise $7trillion next year and servicing costs are too high.

Inflation here will reduce, mainly due to base effect NOT government policy. Rate increase are going to bite household budgets so no feel good factor come election time when the Tories are toast.

[JimJobs81]

Hippea said:

What are your economic predictions for 2024?

Market economics doesn't really exist anymore for G8 and similar countries. Politicians and state in general tinker as they wish.

UK Election is due before Jan 2025, so it's all gonna be rosy

[BAMoFo]

OoopsVoss said:

Aneamic growth. Probably sub 0.5%, if we are lucky. Rates will likely start reducing mid year, probably about the same time the Fed does. Their debt balloon is starting get some attention. I think they need to raise $7trillion next year and servicing costs are too high.

Inflation here will reduce, mainly due to base effect NOT government policy. Rate increase are going to bite household budgets so no feel good factor come election time when the Tories are toast.

It would obviously interfere with the distorted picture that governments seem to want to portray, but surely growth figures should factor in inflation.