Values of fast petrol cars 10yrs from now
Discussion
If you want to see the future of petrol costs, watch THIS.
Current cost is £4.65 per litre for the most 'sustainable' stuff, so you're going to need deep pockets to go for a Sunday morning blat in a V8, for the fun of it.
It's going to become quite a niche pastime, and I can't see that doing anything other than suppress values.
The question is how quickly that will happen.
Current cost is £4.65 per litre for the most 'sustainable' stuff, so you're going to need deep pockets to go for a Sunday morning blat in a V8, for the fun of it.
It's going to become quite a niche pastime, and I can't see that doing anything other than suppress values.
The question is how quickly that will happen.
EVs by then will make the current ones look like VHS vs 4K, so for all but the most enthusiastic/ nostalgic they'll be an absolute no brainer vs petrol.
ICE engines will be taxed like a mofo.
It's not as if they're going to let electric vehicles off lightly by then, but they're going to squeeze petrol and diesel owners until they burst.
So my guess - most will regard them as a liability above all.
If the sheer expense of modern cars has people hanging on to the older stuff, they'll keep taxing them until the poor eventually crumple and revert to sidecars and horses.
ICE engines will be taxed like a mofo.
It's not as if they're going to let electric vehicles off lightly by then, but they're going to squeeze petrol and diesel owners until they burst.
So my guess - most will regard them as a liability above all.
If the sheer expense of modern cars has people hanging on to the older stuff, they'll keep taxing them until the poor eventually crumple and revert to sidecars and horses.
soad said:
Wonder how much the petrol will be by then? Or if even widely available.
1.3bn cars in just the Top 10 car owning countries. You think they will all be EV in 10 years 
TX.
Edit - this thread is a cracker already with all these Mystic Megs and their 100% certainty. Someone make it a sticky pls!
Terminator X said:
1.3bn cars in just the Top 10 car owning countries. You think they will all be EV in 10 years
TX.
This ^^^TX.
Mind you, I suspect that the powers that be would be more than happy to see the 'ordinary Shmo' no longer having access to personal long(ish) distance travel (let along if the loons from Brighton & Bristol somehow gain some sort of power...)
DodgyGeezer said:
This ^^^
Mind you, I suspect that the powers that be would be more than happy to see the 'ordinary Shmo' no longer having access to personal long(ish) distance travel (let along if the loons from Brighton & Bristol somehow gain some sort of power...)
There'd most certainly be people amongst the powers that be who would like to see the little people forced to use electric cars and some not have cars at all. I'm sure there's people on this forum who think along those lines. They love the authoritarianism of it and how they can easily comply and look down on those who haven't yet complied or (gasp!) don't want to....Mind you, I suspect that the powers that be would be more than happy to see the 'ordinary Shmo' no longer having access to personal long(ish) distance travel (let along if the loons from Brighton & Bristol somehow gain some sort of power...)
10 years too soon. More relevant is what will they be worth in 20 to 30 years when EVs start to dominate the new and used market?
My guess is that special cars like F40s will always be worth a lot because people with deep enough pockets will be able to pay the fuel prices and other costs. It is not like many of those cars are used today outside of one off trips or special events.
I think that more standard really fast ICE cars will just get scrapped as they become worthless.
My guess is that special cars like F40s will always be worth a lot because people with deep enough pockets will be able to pay the fuel prices and other costs. It is not like many of those cars are used today outside of one off trips or special events.
I think that more standard really fast ICE cars will just get scrapped as they become worthless.
Agree with others that not much will change in ten years, that's probably only one or two cycles of car development for manufacturers. Values will stay about the same for special cars depreciation will carry on as ever it did.
20 years will see more of a change but I think it'll be emissions zones that put more regular ice cars off the roads rather than road tax. If towns and cities won't let you in, or make it prohibitevly expensive, there will be less appetite to own them and this will trickle down for the interest in attainable sporty cars that we all currently love. Therefore values will go down. We will also start to see the growth of petrol to EV conversion companies, so you can keep the classics but change power train. Meanwhile, new and cool EVs will have come out and buyers will be fawning over those anyway with better speed, safety, tech and comfort. Cars from the 90s to the 2010s will be old things that grandads drive on a weekend.
In 30 years, conversions and emission zones will be a more established practice and there will be a mix of classic car appreciation events, where petrol cars are allowed out into towns and cities (if they had been banned but I think that is unlikely) and engine swaps will be a pretty standard practice for engineers who have now gotten to be a dab hand at it, allowing people to use their classics without huge city centre costs. Values will just remain static at this point as you are into collector niches as most ice cars will have been scrapped by now.
I think there will be always a place for petrol cars, but the market will be smaller. Just look back 30 years and see how many people are really interested in owning cars from that time period. The ones left are the specials, they come out occasionally but you don't see them much.
Essentially, it'll just be the same cycle as have ever been with cars and values. They go down until they are worth more in scrap and are taken off the road. Then what's left of the era becomes special interest cars and values slowly rise.
20 years will see more of a change but I think it'll be emissions zones that put more regular ice cars off the roads rather than road tax. If towns and cities won't let you in, or make it prohibitevly expensive, there will be less appetite to own them and this will trickle down for the interest in attainable sporty cars that we all currently love. Therefore values will go down. We will also start to see the growth of petrol to EV conversion companies, so you can keep the classics but change power train. Meanwhile, new and cool EVs will have come out and buyers will be fawning over those anyway with better speed, safety, tech and comfort. Cars from the 90s to the 2010s will be old things that grandads drive on a weekend.
In 30 years, conversions and emission zones will be a more established practice and there will be a mix of classic car appreciation events, where petrol cars are allowed out into towns and cities (if they had been banned but I think that is unlikely) and engine swaps will be a pretty standard practice for engineers who have now gotten to be a dab hand at it, allowing people to use their classics without huge city centre costs. Values will just remain static at this point as you are into collector niches as most ice cars will have been scrapped by now.
I think there will be always a place for petrol cars, but the market will be smaller. Just look back 30 years and see how many people are really interested in owning cars from that time period. The ones left are the specials, they come out occasionally but you don't see them much.
Essentially, it'll just be the same cycle as have ever been with cars and values. They go down until they are worth more in scrap and are taken off the road. Then what's left of the era becomes special interest cars and values slowly rise.
Edited by Cloudy147 on Saturday 13th January 08:30
Equus said:
If you want to see the future of petrol costs, watch THIS.
Current cost is £4.65 per litre for the most 'sustainable' stuff, so you're going to need deep pockets to go for a Sunday morning blat in a V8, for the fun of it.
It's going to become quite a niche pastime, and I can't see that doing anything other than suppress values.
The question is how quickly that will happen.
This is someone who is clearly in a bubble in "good old England" and hasn't seen the world. Let alone the logistics industry. Current cost is £4.65 per litre for the most 'sustainable' stuff, so you're going to need deep pockets to go for a Sunday morning blat in a V8, for the fun of it.
It's going to become quite a niche pastime, and I can't see that doing anything other than suppress values.
The question is how quickly that will happen.
For electric cars to become popular they have to be desirable and affordable.
The horse and cart was a perfectly good form of transport. There was no need to make it illegal. We just made cars more affordable and a better way to travel. That's what needs to happen with BEV. And the USA is where they need to start. Nobody over there is interested in BEV.
So to answer the question, as it stands I think ICE vehicles will be more desirable unless there is a quantum leap forward in BEV.
The horse and cart was a perfectly good form of transport. There was no need to make it illegal. We just made cars more affordable and a better way to travel. That's what needs to happen with BEV. And the USA is where they need to start. Nobody over there is interested in BEV.
So to answer the question, as it stands I think ICE vehicles will be more desirable unless there is a quantum leap forward in BEV.
rodericb said:
There'd most certainly be people amongst the powers that be who would like to see the little people forced to use electric cars and some not have cars at all. I'm sure there's people on this forum who think along those lines. They love the authoritarianism of it and how they can easily comply and look down on those who haven't yet complied or (gasp!) don't want to....
They are saving the planet. There's no nobler calling than that.
Their self-satisfaction can only be imagined by us mere mortals.
Looking back in time, there was probably a good argument that only about 10% of motors will have any collector's interest at all, and only about 1 in 10 of those would be the best preserved, factory original with decent spec and colours etc.
Of those one in a hundred survivors now, maybe only a tenth of them worth over 5 digits enough to cover future restoration costs, so it boils down to about a one in a thousand left long term.
DVLA 'historic' vehicle figures is just over 1% licensed currently, so if the past is anything to go by then maybe old petrol vehicles will be seen in the future as classics are now, tolerated but rarely seen on the road and doing low miles annually.
And nowadays, owning a classic car or bike is easy for most with free tax, mot exempt, cheap insurance etc. Modern cars now will be also be a lot harder and more expensive to maintain in the future than a 70's or 80's classic now.
When everyday EV's all have supercar acceleration, a manual shifter and horny sounding sports exhaust will always excite that innate hooligan instinct in us all.
Not the thread for renewable energy discussions, but EV's will play a big part in the national grid by storing energy.
Given that the embedded energy to make a car is equivalent to about 100,000 miles of fuel, the environmental arguments for scrappage don't really add up to me, also low annual mileage of most classics further reduces thier significance against the bigger picture of a decarbonised grid.
The sweet spot here may be a slower phased-in replacement , rather than trying to make the changover in a decade. When British Rail went from Steam to diesel it had to be done really fast - running both together wasn't in the plan. But ICE and EV can coexist together for some time yet.
Of those one in a hundred survivors now, maybe only a tenth of them worth over 5 digits enough to cover future restoration costs, so it boils down to about a one in a thousand left long term.
DVLA 'historic' vehicle figures is just over 1% licensed currently, so if the past is anything to go by then maybe old petrol vehicles will be seen in the future as classics are now, tolerated but rarely seen on the road and doing low miles annually.
And nowadays, owning a classic car or bike is easy for most with free tax, mot exempt, cheap insurance etc. Modern cars now will be also be a lot harder and more expensive to maintain in the future than a 70's or 80's classic now.
When everyday EV's all have supercar acceleration, a manual shifter and horny sounding sports exhaust will always excite that innate hooligan instinct in us all.
Not the thread for renewable energy discussions, but EV's will play a big part in the national grid by storing energy.
Given that the embedded energy to make a car is equivalent to about 100,000 miles of fuel, the environmental arguments for scrappage don't really add up to me, also low annual mileage of most classics further reduces thier significance against the bigger picture of a decarbonised grid.
The sweet spot here may be a slower phased-in replacement , rather than trying to make the changover in a decade. When British Rail went from Steam to diesel it had to be done really fast - running both together wasn't in the plan. But ICE and EV can coexist together for some time yet.
I think the expensive rare ones will continue to do what they've always done - be treated more like works of art than cars. More mainstream performance cars like hot hatches and super-saloons will be at the whim of what happens to fuel prices and whether cities start banning ICE powered cars entirely.
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