What will the used car market look like in 10 years time?

[foxbody-87]

My 2012 Focus is starting to get a bit tired so I've been browsing for a replacement. The majority of stuff locally seems to be crossovers, which I have no interest in at all.
The Mondeo and Fiesta have been discontinued, the Insignia is no more, and the Focus is set for discontinuation in 2025. By 2030 we are supposedly all going to be buying electric crossovers, I find it a bit of a depressing thought.
Will there be such a thing as a £1000 runaround when the batteries in a 15 year old car will be worthless? Will people looking for a cheap runaround have no choice but finance deals?
Keen to hear if people have a less depressing prediction than me!

[ingenieur]

these are good points but I have no answers and equally curious?

When they stopped receiving new cars in Cuba because of communism they continued to run the old cars and just kept repairing them.

Maybe the reaction to the climate communism in Europe will end up being similar?

[Muzzer79]

foxbody-87 said:

My 2012 Focus is starting to get a bit tired so I've been browsing for a replacement. The majority of stuff locally seems to be crossovers, which I have no interest in at all.
The Mondeo and Fiesta have been discontinued, the Insignia is no more, and the Focus is set for discontinuation in 2025. By 2030 we are supposedly all going to be buying electric crossovers, I find it a bit of a depressing thought.
Will there be such a thing as a £1000 runaround when the batteries in a 15 year old car will be worthless? Will people looking for a cheap runaround have no choice but finance deals?
Keen to hear if people have a less depressing prediction than me!

There isn’t such a thing as a £1000 runaround now, certainly not with any form of decent MOT.

In 10 years’ time there won’t be either.

Electric cars won’t be worthless after 15 years - a market will pop up refurbishing and modifying the older stuff, just like it did with ICE.

As to what types of vehicle, I do think the traditional hatch/saloon will be gone and the lower end of the market and it will all be crossover/SUV-type stuff. Meh.

[Wills2]

The Cuban solution is one I think will happen after all the average age of a car in the UK is around 10 years old, most of us are getting poorer as our purchasing power is eroded so it's not like we are going to suddenly be able to raise living standards in order to afford newer cars.

Or perhaps the age of mass public transport will come back as there was a time when most people used it whether a professional or shop assistant and society was probably better off for it.

[GT9]

Without getting into the whole EV = evil thing, my comment relates to the notion that something will be worthless in 15 years based on it being out of warranty.
There appears to be an assumption that batteries are unique in the sense that their warranties = expected life.
This is not how warranty life is determined for any other product so I don't really understand why people keep jumping to that conclusion.
The warranty is normally determined by a small % of failures at that life, and factored into to the manufacturer's costs.
Nobody with their head screwed on straight would be offering a warranty provision for a product that is expected to have a very high failure rate at the expiration date.

[Roger Irrelevant]

I don't get it - the great majority of cars sold in the UK today are ICE, and that's likely to be the case for a good few years yet. So won't the used car market in ten years time just consist of all those cars? In the rush to post yet another doom-n-gloom, EVs-represent-the-end-of-all-things post, basic obvious facts are seemingly of little import. I know what's coming next - 'Yeah but in ten years ICE cars will be taxed off the road'. Sure, just like was said ten years ago. It'll be fine.

[autumnsum]

foxbody-87 said:

Will there be such a thing as a £1000 runaround when the batteries in a 15 year old car will be worthless?

Why on earth would the batteries be worthless?

[Hoofy]

It will be interesting to see how EV prices are affected with an older battery. I note that, for instance, a 12 year old Leaf is in the low thousands and from the ads I've seen, there's no mention of battery life, but Nissan do say their batteries should be replaced every 10 years or 100k miles. I'm not going to guestimate how long you have left if you bought a £3k Leaf but there's a £5-10k bill on that coming at some point plus you've got a shorter range, presumably. 100+ miles is the original range.

I can feel myself wanting to guestimate how much a 12 year old Leaf with 80k miles on the clock has left but I'd rather know the facts.

Does anyone have a similarly old EV and can confirm how much % life the battery has left?

Let's get the worst case scenario out of the way - it requires a battery change immediately. That's making the whole cost effectively buying an entry level (100bhp, think Seat Ibiza 1.4) 12 year old hatchback for £8k+.

So does anyone have real world experiences of an older entry level EV?

[Zero Fuchs]

Roger Irrelevant said:

I don't get it - the great majority of cars sold in the UK today are ICE, and that's likely to be the case for a good few years yet. So won't the used car market in ten years time just consist of all those cars? In the rush to post yet another doom-n-gloom, EVs-represent-the-end-of-all-things post, basic obvious facts are seemingly of little import. I know what's coming next - 'Yeah but in ten years ICE cars will be taxed off the road'. Sure, just like was said ten years ago. It'll be fine.

Yes but don't ruin a perfectly stupid thread with a sensible answer.

[ingenieur]

Roger Irrelevant said:

I don't get it - the great majority of cars sold in the UK today are ICE, and that's likely to be the case for a good few years yet. So won't the used car market in ten years time just consist of all those cars? In the rush to post yet another doom-n-gloom, EVs-represent-the-end-of-all-things post, basic obvious facts are seemingly of little import. I know what's coming next - 'Yeah but in ten years ICE cars will be taxed off the road'. Sure, just like was said ten years ago. It'll be fine.

Some generosity could be beneficial here if you take the substance of the post instead of primarily looking for a way to defend EVs. If ten years isn't enough call it 20 years instead.

[MitchT]

Wills2 said:

The Cuban solution is one I think will happen after all the average age of a car in the UK is around 10 years old...

Surely the Cuban solution works because the climate there supports the longevity of cars. How would you achieve the same in the UK, with all the rain and grited/salted roads? I just had to retire an E36 3 Series that I've owned for over 24 years because a rear trailing arm pocket failed due to corrosion. The level of restoration work that this car would now need in order to be given a new lease of life and the resiliance to cope with all conditions could easily run to well over £20k.

Edited by MitchT on Sunday 21st January 11:55

[Wills2]

I think 10 years is too short a time frame more like 25 years before the 50% threshold EV to ICE is reached even if everything goes to plan even them there will be over 20 million ICE vehicles on the road.

But the trend is upwards in terms of how old the average car is in the UK and I think that will continue to grow.

[Nomme de Plum]

ingenieur said:

Roger Irrelevant said:

I don't get it - the great majority of cars sold in the UK today are ICE, and that's likely to be the case for a good few years yet. So won't the used car market in ten years time just consist of all those cars? In the rush to post yet another doom-n-gloom, EVs-represent-the-end-of-all-things post, basic obvious facts are seemingly of little import. I know what's coming next - 'Yeah but in ten years ICE cars will be taxed off the road'. Sure, just like was said ten years ago. It'll be fine.

Some generosity could be beneficial here if you take the substance of the post instead of primarily looking for a way to defend EVs. If ten years isn't enough call it 20 years instead.

How did you interpret that from the tenet of his post?

[Nomme de Plum]

Wills2 said:

I think 10 years is too short a time frame more like 25 years before the 50% threshold EV to ICE is reached even if everything goes to plan even them there will be over 20 million ICE vehicles on the road.

But the trend is upwards in terms of how old the average car is in the UK and I think that will continue to grow.

The sums are relatively simple to calculate. Assuming no attrition and the mandated sales percentages are adhered to then there will be about 15M EVs in 2035 so less than 50% of the 33M cars we now have.

After 2035 it will depend on sales numbers but assuming circa 1.9M pa then it will be another 10 years before we reach close to 100%EV.

[Tyrell Corp]

Seems most manufacturers have an 8 year warranty on batteries,
Nissan estimate a 20% reduction in capacity over 8 years.

In reality for a sub 10k car, most owners don't need 300+ miles a day off one single charge, 300 miles a week would cover many.

Seems 'average' uk car mileage is 7,400 miles, less than 150 miles a week. Maybe buying an older ev car with a reduced battery capacity in the future won't be such a deal breaker.

Problem being If battery losses are 2.3% a year, and will only work down to 70% capacity, the future new battery costs will dictate ev values past the 10 yr mark.

[jeremyh1]

Wills2 said:

The Cuban solution is one I think will happen after all the average age of a car in the UK is around 10 years old, most of us are getting poorer as our purchasing power is eroded so it's not like we are going to suddenly be able to raise living standards in order to afford newer cars.

Or perhaps the age of mass public transport will come back as there was a time when most people used it whether a professional or shop assistant and society was probably better off for it.

You say the Cuban solution but we only need to look closer to home .

We are the country in Europe that is most obsessed with new and prestige
Most people on here to go to poorer parts of Europe on holiday and it is like a classic car show they dont spend any money on cars they just dont have it

We go to Greece a lot and most people are driving around in French/Italian hatchback or Jap cars that are at least 15 years old

Most of us here could keep our old cars going for years if we really wanted to
The only challenge here is rust as Mitch has pointed out

Edited by jeremyh1 on Sunday 21st January 12:07

Edited by jeremyh1 on Sunday 21st January 12:08

[ingenieur]

jeremyh1 said:

Wills2 said:

The Cuban solution is one I think will happen after all the average age of a car in the UK is around 10 years old, most of us are getting poorer as our purchasing power is eroded so it's not like we are going to suddenly be able to raise living standards in order to afford newer cars.

Or perhaps the age of mass public transport will come back as there was a time when most people used it whether a professional or shop assistant and society was probably better off for it.

You say the Cuban solution but we only need to look closer to home .

We are the country in Europe that is most obsessed with new and prestige
Most people on here to go to poorer parts of Europe on holiday and it is like a classic car show they dont spend any money on cars they just dont have it

We go to Greece a lot and most people are driving around in French/Italian hatchback or Jap cars that are at least 15 years old

Most of us here could keep our old cars going for years if we really wanted to
The only challenge here is rust

Edited by jeremyh1 on Sunday 21st January 12:07

In a Cuban-style scenario transplanted to the UK the relatively scarce skill of welding would become much more widespread and less of a black art. We don't weld much in the UK compared with other countries. It's not that difficult to make a car solid. Welding for restoration is trickier but if people just want holes covered up you'd find welding shops popping up all over the place.

[jeremyh1]

ingenieur said:

In a Cuban-style scenario transplanted to the UK the relatively scarce skill of welding would become much more widespread and less of a black art. We don't weld much in the UK compared with other countries. It's not that difficult to make a car solid. Welding for restoration is trickier but if people just want holes covered up you'd find welding shops popping up all over the place.

I have welded up a few farm gates in my time but I will let you decide if my skills stretch to the full restoration of a BMW chassis!

[A500leroy]

Hoofy said:

It will be interesting to see how EV prices are affected with an older battery. I note that, for instance, a 12 year old Leaf is in the low thousands and from the ads I've seen, there's no mention of battery life, but Nissan do say their batteries should be replaced every 10 years or 100k miles. I'm not going to guestimate how long you have left if you bought a £3k Leaf but there's a £5-10k bill on that coming at some point plus you've got a shorter range, presumably. 100+ miles is the original range.

I can feel myself wanting to guestimate how much a 12 year old Leaf with 80k miles on the clock has left but I'd rather know the facts.

Does anyone have a similarly old EV and can confirm how much % life the battery has left?

Let's get the worst case scenario out of the way - it requires a battery change immediately. That's making the whole cost effectively buying an entry level (100bhp, think Seat Ibiza 1.4) 12 year old hatchback for £8k+.

So does anyone have real world experiences of an older entry level EV?

Yes, my neighbors 11 year old leaf has lost 10% of the battery.

[GT9]

Tyrell Corp said:

Problem being If battery losses are 2.3% a year, and will only work down to 70% capacity, the future new battery costs will dictate ev values past the 10 yr mark.

Battery degradation is not necessarily linear with time for a particular car, nor has it remained consistent between earlier cars and later cars.

There was a Which survey of several thousand cars about a year or so ago and the average reported capacity for 2015 cars was 95%.
That's less than 1% per year.
Three year old cars were reporting just 1% drop on average.
Scarcely believable for some I'm sure, maybe the owners were fibbing...
Early Tesla data collected independently by user groups indicates a trend of about 10% degradation at 125,000 miles, the 'standard life' for a UK/European car.