Discussion
Researchers at the University of East Anglia have found that global warming has had a greater impact on European weather patterns than previously thought.
And their work has highlighted a flaw in climate models used to assess regional climate change.
However, now the anomaly has been identified scientists can begin work to remedy the problem and make climate models even more accurate by taking into account the UEA findings.
In a new report published this week, experts at the UEA's clim-atic research unit say that as a result, the impact of global warm-ing has been under-estimated.
Nathan Gillett from the UEA unit reached the conclusion after comparing northern hemisphere air pressure changes at sea level over the past 50 years with predicted changes from nine state-of-the-art climate models.
The Northern Hemisphere Circulation study found that present climate change models - computer representations of the atmosphere, ocean and land surface - have underestimated the changes in air pressure, leading to an underestimate of the impact of global warming on weather patterns.
The observations showed air pressure had dropped four milli-bars over Iceland in the past 50 years. Yet it had risen by up to three millibars in the sub-tropics, while climate model trends were showing it at less than a millibar.
Previous research has shown that over the past 30 years air pressure trends have contributed about 1C to warming over the UK in winter.
Over southern England, these trends have probably made the winters milder and windier.
Dr Gillett said: "Climate models are very good at simulating temperature changes, but this study shows their simulations of pressure trends in the northern hemisphere are not realistic.
"If we could understand and correct this bias, predictions of future regional climate change would be improved."
And their work has highlighted a flaw in climate models used to assess regional climate change.
However, now the anomaly has been identified scientists can begin work to remedy the problem and make climate models even more accurate by taking into account the UEA findings.
In a new report published this week, experts at the UEA's clim-atic research unit say that as a result, the impact of global warm-ing has been under-estimated.
Nathan Gillett from the UEA unit reached the conclusion after comparing northern hemisphere air pressure changes at sea level over the past 50 years with predicted changes from nine state-of-the-art climate models.
The Northern Hemisphere Circulation study found that present climate change models - computer representations of the atmosphere, ocean and land surface - have underestimated the changes in air pressure, leading to an underestimate of the impact of global warming on weather patterns.
The observations showed air pressure had dropped four milli-bars over Iceland in the past 50 years. Yet it had risen by up to three millibars in the sub-tropics, while climate model trends were showing it at less than a millibar.
Previous research has shown that over the past 30 years air pressure trends have contributed about 1C to warming over the UK in winter.
Over southern England, these trends have probably made the winters milder and windier.
Dr Gillett said: "Climate models are very good at simulating temperature changes, but this study shows their simulations of pressure trends in the northern hemisphere are not realistic.
"If we could understand and correct this bias, predictions of future regional climate change would be improved."
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