Maybe the future is...

[ingenieur]

Just reading the Jaguar thread and wondering what is most likely to happen and I suppose from reading the comments a possible future is as follows:

1. Cars become 'white goods' to such an extent that nobody gives a monkeys what brand is on what car, "just get me the cheapest box"..

2. Car enthusiasts are going to get heavily into 'classic' cars - i.e. anything with an engine and those cars are going to get older and older but the businesses will be there to support people repairing and running older cars.

3. Non-western civilisations will continue to use liquid fuel a long time into the future as they just don't have the infrastructure to 'go electric'. This market won't be served by the likes of BMW, Mercedes, JaGuar. The cars will come from countries who are happy to make and sell products without the politics.

4. There will always be an elite class who can afford ultra-luxurious vehicles of any type who will buy new high-end EVs which aren't just 'white goods' but they'll also have some classics in the garage much like they do at present.


There is another alternative scenario where 'the woke' are completely driven from power in all aspects including the automotive sector and the legislation governing it simply because reality will come up against their luxury beliefs and they'll have to adapt or they'll be replaced.

[Huzzah]

ingenieur said:

Just reading the Jaguar thread and wondering what is most likely to happen and I suppose from reading the comments a possible future is as follows:

1. Cars become 'white goods' to such an extent that nobody gives a monkeys what brand is on what car, "just get me the cheapest box"..

.

I think we will care, in a consumer society, image is important. We have Beko freezers in the garage, but my wife likes Bosch dishwashers and washing machines (even though they're not on show). I wouldn't have a Hoover fridge again, but I'm happy with a stylish Zanussi.

Go figure

[Nomme de Plum]

Cars have been white good since the advent of the Model T Ford in 1908 a mere 116 years ago. The list of white goods cars subsequent to this is almost endless and the list of cars that could be considered as not white goods is very limited indeed.

China is not a Western society but its internal market for EVs is massive and India's EV growth rate is also substantial. So basically most of the world's population West included.


The inclusion of Elites and Woke imply to me the OP is carrying a big chip.

Edited by Nomme de Plum on Monday 25th November 08:37

[ingenieur]

I'm a Miele man myself... so I suppose that sort-of disproves the point if you use that example. It's the sense that electric powertrain is quite similar from one to the next. Then styling cars like a rugby ball / watermelon means they all look the same. On board gadgets are now so easy to get that every car has enough to make you feel like you're not missing out. It hinges on whether or not there's any truth in the statement that all EVs are so similar that you wouldn't care which one you had.

[ingenieur]

Nomme de Plum said:

The inclusion of Elites and Woke imply to me the OP is carrying a big chip.

I am... and not ashamed to admit it as I think we're living in very strange times.

[Nomme de Plum]

ingenieur said:

Nomme de Plum said:

The inclusion of Elites and Woke imply to me the OP is carrying a big chip.

I am... and not ashamed to admit it as I think we're living in very strange times.

There's nothing particularly strange or unique about the time we are now living in. Change has always existed throughout history and there are those that accept it and those that for some reason fight against it. Ultimately the change will happen as it always has done.

[Nomme de Plum]

ingenieur said:

I'm a Miele man myself... so I suppose that sort-of disproves the point if you use that example. It's the sense that electric powertrain is quite similar from one to the next. Then styling cars like a rugby ball / watermelon means they all look the same. On board gadgets are now so easy to get that every car has enough to make you feel like you're not missing out. It hinges on whether or not there's any truth in the statement that all EVs are so similar that you wouldn't care which one you had.

All EVs are not the same and if you are and Engineer you'd know that. Even the electric motors are not the same. I will agree that the differences are more difficult to discern but surely thats pretty logical. If the product is so massively more efficient than an ICE then the differences will be less noticeable to the layman.

The complexity and mechanical, nature of the ICE drivetrain means that there will generally be bigger noticeable differences.

[ingenieur]

Nomme de Plum said:

ingenieur said:

Nomme de Plum said:

The inclusion of Elites and Woke imply to me the OP is carrying a big chip.

I am... and not ashamed to admit it as I think we're living in very strange times.

There's nothing particularly strange or unique about the time we are now living in. Change has always existed throughout history and there are those that accept it and those that for some reason fight against it. Ultimately the change will happen as it always has done.

That's not true. The UK joined the EU, lots of people were unhappy about it... the change was undone. There are countless other examples through history and across the world. There's no such thing as a blank cheque for people with bad ideas.

[Huzzah]

Does this mean my Bekos will become obsolete and outdated rubbish? Or should I stockpile for future use?

[Nomme de Plum]

ingenieur said:

Nomme de Plum said:

ingenieur said:

Nomme de Plum said:

The inclusion of Elites and Woke imply to me the OP is carrying a big chip.

I am... and not ashamed to admit it as I think we're living in very strange times.

There's nothing particularly strange or unique about the time we are now living in. Change has always existed throughout history and there are those that accept it and those that for some reason fight against it. Ultimately the change will happen as it always has done.

That's not true. The UK joined the EU, lots of people were unhappy about it... the change was undone. There are countless other examples through history and across the world. There's no such thing as a blank cheque for people with bad ideas.

I was thinking rather longer term than the mistake of allowing an electorate to vote on something about which they were largely ignorant not withstanding the damage it has done to both the Eu and UK's economies. It does make Trump's position a bit stronger when setting out the USA's trade policy. Would Russia have invaded Ukraine in 2020 had the UK still been part of the Eu. We will never know.

Come 2050 the ICE will be largely constrained to history. This was never set out to be a revolutionary change but one over decades. You seem to forget outside PH nobody cares what motive power derives their car as long as it is cheap and reliable. Even in PH there are threads with people discussing their experiences of the EVs they own and giving advice to others. Surely that is what a forum like this is for.

[BricktopST205]

Nomme de Plum said:

All EVs are not the same and if you are and Engineer you'd know that. Even the electric motors are not the same. I will agree that the differences are more difficult to discern but surely thats pretty logical. If the product is so massively more efficient than an ICE then the differences will be less noticeable to the layman.

The complexity and mechanical, nature of the ICE drivetrain means that there will generally be bigger noticeable differences.

Going back to my RC days there is only so many ways you can make an electric motor. It is nowhere near the complexity of making a decent ICE engine.

You don't need the brain capacity and decades of knowledge of say Cosworth to make an absolutely peach of an electric motor. Hence why the Chinese have rocketed ahead. The skill ceiling is a lot lower in that regard.

[Robertb]

You are glorifying ICE cars. Most are tedious, utterly forgettable drony lumps that exist for to do a job of the masses who couldn't care less.

[Lester H]

ingenieur said:

Nomme de Plum said:

The inclusion of Elites and Woke imply to me the OP is carrying a big chip.

I am... and not ashamed to admit it as I think we're living in very strange times.

Ingenieur is right. Old Henry Ford died in 1947, and he would recognise and understand a current pick up truck, as loved by tradesmen. It would not take him long to be at ease in a Mustang, either. He knew and understood electricity and would have experienced futuristic concept cars, though he left most of those to son Edsel. However, he would be overwhelmed at the speed of change today from what to him would have been remote undeveloped countries. The change has never been so rapid, we ( not me personally) are going through a step change.

Edited by Lester H on Monday 25th November 09:52

[Nomme de Plum]

Lester H said:

ingenieur said:

Nomme de Plum said:

The inclusion of Elites and Woke imply to me the OP is carrying a big chip.

I am... and not ashamed to admit it as I think we're living in very strange times.

Ingenieur is right. Old Henry Ford died in 1947, and he would recognise and understand a current pick up truck, as loved by tradesmen. It would not take him long to be at ease in a Mustang, either. He knew and understood electricity and would have experienced futuristic concept cars, though he left most of those to son Edsel. However, he would be overwhelmed at the speed of change today from what to him would have been remote undeveloped countries. The change has never been so rapid, we ( not me personally) are going through a step change.

Edited by Lester H on Monday 25th November 09:52

My Grandfather born turn of the last century was in awe of the changes he saw in his lifetime and embraced that change. He said he'd seen the first flights and man landing on the moon and the advent of the colour TV and the remote control. When I was young we had no phone and landlines when we did get one was shared. The refrigerator was rare in homes and there was a big gas fired boiler for washing clothes and a mangel. We played on the streets outside our houses because there were few cars. Both my parents who died in their late 80s over a decade ago were completely computer literate, used on line banking and shopping.

It is attitude nothing else. There are people that are open and acceptant of change and those that try and prevent it. The latter always lose out eventually.

[MesoForm]

Huzzah said:

ingenieur said:

Just reading the Jaguar thread and wondering what is most likely to happen and I suppose from reading the comments a possible future is as follows:

1. Cars become 'white goods' to such an extent that nobody gives a monkeys what brand is on what car, "just get me the cheapest box"..

.

I think we will care, in a consumer society, image is important. We have Beko freezers in the garage, but my wife likes Bosch dishwashers and washing machines (even though they're not on show). I wouldn't have a Hoover fridge again, but I'm happy with a stylish Zanussi.

Go figure

I think it's the vocal minority who care about the brand? I think most just want the cheapest one that suits their needs, for example with TVs the majority just care about the size and whether it comes with apps, the brand is irrelevant. For bluetooth speakers I'm sure for every Sony / Bose / Yamaha that gets sold there are a dozen Ortizan and Heysongs (they're the top 2 on Amazon when searching for bluetooth speaker), we talk about 'ditchfinder' tyres here on PH but look around a supermarket car park and it's clear when most people change their tyres they go for the cheapest legal tyre, etc. etc.

[Lester H]

ingenieur said:

I'm a Miele man myself... so I suppose that sort-of disproves the point if you use that example. It's the sense that electric powertrain is quite similar from one to the next. Then styling cars like a rugby ball / watermelon means they all look the same. On board gadgets are now so easy to get that every car has enough to make you feel like you're not missing out. It hinges on whether or not there's any truth in the statement that all EVs are so similar that you wouldn't care which one you had.

Incidentally, Carl Miele produced a number of very high class cars, whereas Robert Bosch made parts only.

Edited by Lester H on Monday 25th November 12:46

[VeeReihenmotor6]

Most ICE cars are white goods too. BEV will get better and for the majority of 2 car households, 1 of them will be BEV to go alongside their white good diesel/petrol estate/suv. Some households will go BEV for all of their cars. Unlikely to be enthusiasts but enthusiasts are in the minority.

The proportion of BEV to ICE will grow but ICE will still live on in hybrid and historical form.

BEV does not excite me, but then nor does my diesel estate car either.

[Nomme de Plum]

Lester H said:

ingenieur said:

I'm a Miele man myself... so I suppose that sort-of disproves the point if you use that example. It's the sense that electric powertrain is quite similar from one to the next. Then styling cars like a rugby ball / watermelon means they all look the same. On board gadgets are now so easy to get that every car has enough to make you feel like you're not missing out. It hinges on whether or not there's any truth in the statement that all EVs are so similar that you wouldn't care which one you had.

Incidentally, Carl Miele produced a number of very high class cars, whereas Robert Bosch made parts only.

Edited by Lester H on Monday 25th November 12:46

It seems Bosch have the more successful business model. Well over 400,000 employees versus 23,000 for Miele. Miele do however manufacture a rather good inbuilt coffee maker though. I wonder if it has any Bosch parts?

[ingenieur]

Lester H said:

ingenieur said:

I'm a Miele man myself... so I suppose that sort-of disproves the point if you use that example. It's the sense that electric powertrain is quite similar from one to the next. Then styling cars like a rugby ball / watermelon means they all look the same. On board gadgets are now so easy to get that every car has enough to make you feel like you're not missing out. It hinges on whether or not there's any truth in the statement that all EVs are so similar that you wouldn't care which one you had.

Incidentally, Carl Miele produced a number of very high class cars, whereas Robert Bosch made parts only.

Edited by Lester H on Monday 25th November 12:46

I did not know that. I'll have to google him.

[kevinon]

There's an underlying human need to express themselves, to be in a 'tribe' or lead the way.

Even functional things, like cars have morphed into non-functional appeal. As an example, look at colours. Even on here (especially on here) people get very attached to colour, and trim, limited editions, etc.

So, I see even more expansion in the 'personalisation' aspects of products.
Capitalism needs constant demand, and fashion.

If I ruled the world it would be be different. !