Discussion
Whatever you say about trump he definitely inspires investment, 100billion plus from SoftBank. Also the USA economy seems to be doing well.
The UK is now two months in recession, is our government turning investors off the UK, as the UK drastically needs 100s if billions of investments to stop further backtracking.
The UK is now two months in recession, is our government turning investors off the UK, as the UK drastically needs 100s if billions of investments to stop further backtracking.
Definitely?
I'm not sure I'd agree with your claim. I think Trump favours people that are loyal to him - Musk - but as for Trump inspiriting investment I'm really not so sure. I invest in the U.S. and my investments have risen since Trump got elected but I don't see that rise as actually a sign that Trump inspires investment.
Maybe you could explain your thought process here.....
I'm not sure I'd agree with your claim. I think Trump favours people that are loyal to him - Musk - but as for Trump inspiriting investment I'm really not so sure. I invest in the U.S. and my investments have risen since Trump got elected but I don't see that rise as actually a sign that Trump inspires investment.
Maybe you could explain your thought process here.....
The markets love him, and at the end of the day the economy the country is what counts, whatever anyone says. Especially considering the debt leverage.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/ar...
"the stock market, already up strongly, has surged to new heights since his election"
From an investment point of view, America is deemed, currently a good investment. Can the same said about the UK?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/ar...
"the stock market, already up strongly, has surged to new heights since his election"
From an investment point of view, America is deemed, currently a good investment. Can the same said about the UK?
mickythefish said:
The markets love him, and at the end of the day the economy the country is what counts, whatever anyone says. Especially considering the debt leverage.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/ar...
"the stock market, already up strongly, has surged to new heights since his election"
From an investment point of view, America is deemed, currently a good investment. Can the same said about the UK?
US stocks were flying well before Trump got anywhere near being elected.https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/ar...
"the stock market, already up strongly, has surged to new heights since his election"
From an investment point of view, America is deemed, currently a good investment. Can the same said about the UK?
UK has been uninvestable since Brexit, nothing to do with Labour, although the recent budget won't have helped improve things.
mickythefish said:
I think this is the problem with the UK, you need someone that can sell the country abroad and like you said, since Brexit it just isn't happening.
A slightly different view is that you need a climate for innovation in order for there to be anything for investors to invest in... I'd argue that we simply don't have that in this country. We certainly don't seem to have the same founder/spin-off culture as the US. That takes time to build.PorkInsider said:
UK has been uninvestable since Brexit, nothing to do with Labour, although the recent budget won't have helped improve things.
What caused the sudden FTSE100 jump to 8,000+?As for the US, in my view Trump is essentially about business, making deals and making money. Democrats are about being PC and hopeless foreign policy. I'd vote for Trump any day.
UK is in deep trouble. It's also in denial, with many people still clinging onto vacuous political promises.
High wage inflation at 5.2% in a zero growth economy with the overall employment situation stagnated by Rachel Reeves hike of National Insurance.
You can forget any more interest rate reductions for quite some time and it will take nothing short of a miracle to get inflation back to target. If you're a global company today looking at a map of the world and wondering where to set up your new factory/office, why on earth would you come to UK?
High wage inflation at 5.2% in a zero growth economy with the overall employment situation stagnated by Rachel Reeves hike of National Insurance.
You can forget any more interest rate reductions for quite some time and it will take nothing short of a miracle to get inflation back to target. If you're a global company today looking at a map of the world and wondering where to set up your new factory/office, why on earth would you come to UK?
Bit of a tangent incoming...
Maybe it's just me but when the stock market is soaring, the typical "man on the street" won't notice it, but when the stock market is crashing, the typical "man on the street" notices it in his wallet. In either event, the price of stuff goes up a little bit or a lot.
So, back on topic, so what?
Maybe it's just me but when the stock market is soaring, the typical "man on the street" won't notice it, but when the stock market is crashing, the typical "man on the street" notices it in his wallet. In either event, the price of stuff goes up a little bit or a lot.
So, back on topic, so what?
Panamax said:
UK is in deep trouble. It's also in denial, with many people still clinging onto vacuous political promises.
High wage inflation at 5.2% in a zero growth economy with the overall employment situation stagnated by Rachel Reeves hike of National Insurance.
You can forget any more interest rate reductions for quite some time and it will take nothing short of a miracle to get inflation back to target. If you're a global company today looking at a map of the world and wondering where to set up your new factory/office, why on earth would you come to UK?
A third of the inflation basket is already in a state of deflation, the looming recession will certainly get inflation down but it will also ravage the economy, in many ways we have gone full circle back to the 70s and are due a humdinger of a recession, with no more levers to pull as they pulled all of those during the GFC and CV-19. High wage inflation at 5.2% in a zero growth economy with the overall employment situation stagnated by Rachel Reeves hike of National Insurance.
You can forget any more interest rate reductions for quite some time and it will take nothing short of a miracle to get inflation back to target. If you're a global company today looking at a map of the world and wondering where to set up your new factory/office, why on earth would you come to UK?
mickythefish said:
European country trends are on a stagnant growth pattern. If the UK was more innovative it could move away from that on its own. To do so would need a different way if attracting investment.
Not the old cash envelopes, more decent long term big money.
So what are you doing to make the UK more innovative? Or are you waiting for someone else to do it? Not the old cash envelopes, more decent long term big money.
Plus what do you mean by a different way of attracting investment? We could follow the Middle East/ Norway & Singapore and set up a GIC I suppose - in Singapore this is funded by a 20% contribution from employees, 17% from employers. Because as I am sure you know, investments are just the flip side of savings, and if we want investment in the UK to rise, then UK savings need to also rise.
The issue with the UK is that many point fingers and moan that things are not the way they want them to be, rather than pulling finger out and trying to get the place to where they want it to be.
Edited by wisbech on Tuesday 17th December 12:23
External investment is what I'm thinking.
Quick Google found this, https://lordslibrary.parliament.uk/attracting-more...
Will the new leaders attract investment as they said.
"We will use our diplomatic network to attract foreign direct investment into the UK".
For me reducing costs, whilst reducing taxes would make much better sense to grow the economy and attract investment.
Quick Google found this, https://lordslibrary.parliament.uk/attracting-more...
Will the new leaders attract investment as they said.
"We will use our diplomatic network to attract foreign direct investment into the UK".
For me reducing costs, whilst reducing taxes would make much better sense to grow the economy and attract investment.
mickythefish said:
External investment is what I'm thinking.
Quick Google found this, https://lordslibrary.parliament.uk/attracting-more...
Will the new leaders attract investment as they said.
"We will use our diplomatic network to attract foreign direct investment into the UK".
For me reducing costs, whilst reducing taxes would make much better sense to grow the economy and attract investment.
Fair enough, but the same source (HoC) does show that the UK has more outgoing FDI than incoming - (ie we invest alot overseas)Quick Google found this, https://lordslibrary.parliament.uk/attracting-more...
Will the new leaders attract investment as they said.
"We will use our diplomatic network to attract foreign direct investment into the UK".
For me reducing costs, whilst reducing taxes would make much better sense to grow the economy and attract investment.
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-brie...
Personally, I wouldn't get too het up about foreign investment vs domestic, if the UK can be made more attractive place to invest - it will also mean more UK investment.
One issue of course is that a large chunk of that FDI is into property, which is why the jobs created by FDI isn't that great. If you buy a portfolio of UK offices and houses, doesn't create many new jobs. Or when a HK firm took over UK utilities companies - that also counts as FDI but would probably been a loss of jobs as they consolidated.
Same if you look at UK household assets - 42% is pensions, 36% housing, 9% is "stuff" (vehicles, furniture) and 13% other financial. So a high portion of our saving/ investment is unproductive in terms of creating income/ employment (though obviously we need somewhere to live) - in the US housing is 29% - so that is a lot more money that can go into more productive investments
Its not the US economy that the UK needs to be competing with, its the Europeans.
Fed policy will have an impact on the pound and inflation, but most analysts have the USD falling Vs both EUR, YEN and GBP next year.
As said above, most inflation indicators are deflationary, although you'd be a brave man to think there is a cut from the BoE on Thursday.
Futures are pricing 24bps of Fed cuts for tomorrow, so we won't see much in the short term (USDGBP space being priced in) but a cut almost certain - although this is also broadly positive for risk on S&P bets.
Th UK has a number of positive attributes that its EU peers don't.
1. Its politically stable. We don't have Presidents and Chancellors blowing themselves and governments up politically and weakening power / governence. In fact populism and lunge to the right is a certainty in Europe. Most investors think we've done 8+ years of populist nonsense and even IF you don't like the colour of Starmers tie, its stable. Plus cannot possibly be Truss bad.
2. We are a service not manufacturing led economy. Services are much harder to tariff and less threatened in a Trump dust up. Almost certainly this is bad for exporters of stuff (to the US)
3. That low industrial base, makes it easier to pivot the economy. Germany isn't going to implode and it will reinvent itself somewhat (despite terrible post covid growth), but its high level industrial complexity will make this difficult and expensive.
Really, if its a 2 horse race; its us Vs the sister economy over the channel. And if you had to pick a safe haven out the 2, its the UK. There 10year borrow cost hit Greece levels, they have an unmanageable deficit and no political solution in sight. Any monetary support / relief doesn't play in the fiscally prudent parts of the EU so its very ugly in there. That's going to send investment money our way.
The US will do what the US does, it will complete political and economic self interest. You want to have the lowest exposure to that possible - hence staying out of manufacturing etc. It looks brutal (Nissan and Honda now discussing merger).
Any scarring (and that's an IF because the growth numbers just published are very likely to be revised) caused by Reeves is very likely to be short lived as they are working (albeit slowly) to pro business and lowering public sector costs.
Fed policy will have an impact on the pound and inflation, but most analysts have the USD falling Vs both EUR, YEN and GBP next year.
As said above, most inflation indicators are deflationary, although you'd be a brave man to think there is a cut from the BoE on Thursday.
Futures are pricing 24bps of Fed cuts for tomorrow, so we won't see much in the short term (USDGBP space being priced in) but a cut almost certain - although this is also broadly positive for risk on S&P bets.
Th UK has a number of positive attributes that its EU peers don't.
1. Its politically stable. We don't have Presidents and Chancellors blowing themselves and governments up politically and weakening power / governence. In fact populism and lunge to the right is a certainty in Europe. Most investors think we've done 8+ years of populist nonsense and even IF you don't like the colour of Starmers tie, its stable. Plus cannot possibly be Truss bad.
2. We are a service not manufacturing led economy. Services are much harder to tariff and less threatened in a Trump dust up. Almost certainly this is bad for exporters of stuff (to the US)
3. That low industrial base, makes it easier to pivot the economy. Germany isn't going to implode and it will reinvent itself somewhat (despite terrible post covid growth), but its high level industrial complexity will make this difficult and expensive.
Really, if its a 2 horse race; its us Vs the sister economy over the channel. And if you had to pick a safe haven out the 2, its the UK. There 10year borrow cost hit Greece levels, they have an unmanageable deficit and no political solution in sight. Any monetary support / relief doesn't play in the fiscally prudent parts of the EU so its very ugly in there. That's going to send investment money our way.
The US will do what the US does, it will complete political and economic self interest. You want to have the lowest exposure to that possible - hence staying out of manufacturing etc. It looks brutal (Nissan and Honda now discussing merger).
Any scarring (and that's an IF because the growth numbers just published are very likely to be revised) caused by Reeves is very likely to be short lived as they are working (albeit slowly) to pro business and lowering public sector costs.
PorkInsider said:
US stocks were flying well before Trump got anywhere near being elected.
UK has been uninvestable since Brexit, nothing to do with Labour, although the recent budget won't have helped improve things.
Is Brexit why Europe in general is doing so badly, with 2 years VW and other key German brands will probably go bust.UK has been uninvestable since Brexit, nothing to do with Labour, although the recent budget won't have helped improve things.
We are wasting money on net zero, immigration is a huge issue, and anyone with a brain is moving or leaving.
BGARK said:
PorkInsider said:
US stocks were flying well before Trump got anywhere near being elected.
UK has been uninvestable since Brexit, nothing to do with Labour, although the recent budget won't have helped improve things.
Is Brexit why Europe in general is doing so badly, with 2 years VW and other key German brands will probably go bust.UK has been uninvestable since Brexit, nothing to do with Labour, although the recent budget won't have helped improve things.
We are wasting money on net zero, immigration is a huge issue, and anyone with a brain is moving or leaving.
As for your last sentence well that's what you voted for when you voted Brexit, you handed control over to a bunch of self centred opportunists and the adults left the room.
BGARK said:
Is Brexit why Europe in general is doing so badly, with 2 years VW and other key German brands will probably go bust.
We are wasting money on net zero, immigration is a huge issue, and anyone with a brain is moving or leaving.
Anyone with a brain is leaving? We are wasting money on net zero, immigration is a huge issue, and anyone with a brain is moving or leaving.
Could you explain that.
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