Do burglary statistics add up?
Discussion
Are burglars simply seeking a woolly jumper and a splash of Eau Sauvage? According to NimbleFins, clothes are stolen in around 1 in 10 burglaries – as are all toiletries, cigarettes and food!
https://www.nimblefins.co.uk/home-insurance/burgla...
Surprisingly, they prefer the front door to make an entrance. Windows get less of a look in. Who knew?
I’m putting my chocolate digestives in the safe from now on.
https://www.nimblefins.co.uk/home-insurance/burgla...
Surprisingly, they prefer the front door to make an entrance. Windows get less of a look in. Who knew?
I’m putting my chocolate digestives in the safe from now on.
Edited by Salted_Peanut on Wednesday 29th January 20:42
Stolen sustenance aside, I was surprised how the methods of entry stats added up. Why do burglars break in through windows so rarely? Are they too overweight from eating stolen McVitie's to fit through? Locks are forced more often than I expected, too. And who are the 7.4% of burglars who have a key?
SlimJim16v said:
Someone is home in 68.9% of burglaries or attempted burglaries.
I was , in the numerous times they tried to get in , for the keys to a 340 touring I narrowed it down to .It stopped when they realised I was trying to catch them and not scare them off , I got sick of the cops doing sweet f
k all.so took matters into my own hands! Luckily for me they got the message and no doubt moved on to an easier target .
paulwirral said:
SlimJim16v said:
Someone is home in 68.9% of burglaries or attempted burglaries.
I was , in the numerous times they tried to get in , for the keys to a 340 touring I narrowed it down to .It stopped when they realised I was trying to catch them and not scare them off , I got sick of the cops doing sweet f
k all.so took matters into my own hands! Luckily for me they got the message and no doubt moved on to an easier target .
Nibbles_bits said:
paulwirral said:
SlimJim16v said:
Someone is home in 68.9% of burglaries or attempted burglaries.
I was , in the numerous times they tried to get in , for the keys to a 340 touring I narrowed it down to .It stopped when they realised I was trying to catch them and not scare them off , I got sick of the cops doing sweet f
k all.so took matters into my own hands! Luckily for me they got the message and no doubt moved on to an easier target .
He did try a good half a dozen times before though , when we were in the house too .
The scum really don’t give a f
k , these clowns were particularly inept though . I did report every attempt to the useless cops and showed them on the security cameras I installed after the first couple of attempts but they really weren’t interested , but they did tell me it wasn’t acceptable to lay into a burglar until they were in your house !
paulwirral said:
Nibbles_bits said:
paulwirral said:
SlimJim16v said:
Someone is home in 68.9% of burglaries or attempted burglaries.
I was , in the numerous times they tried to get in , for the keys to a 340 touring I narrowed it down to .It stopped when they realised I was trying to catch them and not scare them off , I got sick of the cops doing sweet f
k all.so took matters into my own hands! Luckily for me they got the message and no doubt moved on to an easier target .
He did try a good half a dozen times before though , when we were in the house too .
The scum really don’t give a f
k , these clowns were particularly inept though . I did report every attempt to the useless cops and showed them on the security cameras I installed after the first couple of attempts but they really weren’t interested , but they did tell me it wasn’t acceptable to lay into a burglar until they were in your house !
Colour me surprised
Any person can arrest a person who is in the act of committing an indictable offence or
Anyone whom he reasonably suspects to be committing such an offence, if
it is not reasonably practicable for a constable to make the arrest instead and
there are reasonable grounds for believing that the arrest is necessary, for one of the following reasons:
To prevent the person in question:
causing physical injury to himself or any other person;
suffering physical injury;
causing loss of or damage to property; or
making off before a constable can assume responsibility for him.
Edited by Nibbles_bits on Thursday 30th January 22:51
Well , I’m maybe being a little harsh on our police force , the first time it happened they sent a pco round two days later who advised me to lock the windows and install a ring type door bell , she told me this whilst I was up a ladder clearly installing security cameras to the whole house !
in the defence of the police.
My elderly mum was burgled a couple of years ago, the entered by (her fault)unlocked patio door around the back of the house, also alarm not on, got her car keys and stole the car.
They then used the car in a robbery of a corner shop, not the first time it seems.
They then dumped the car, but the idiots had paired a phone to the stereo?
Yes my mind boggles too.
Police found the car and eventually caught them, think the shopkeeper got a hiding.
Mum got the car back with new locks etc.
Police kept her up to date all the way through, and visited alot.
The scrotes are now doing time.
Mum was upstairs asleep through it all, scares the st out of me.
She now locks the doors lol.
Thank god all they wanted was the car.
A mighty fiesta
My elderly mum was burgled a couple of years ago, the entered by (her fault)unlocked patio door around the back of the house, also alarm not on, got her car keys and stole the car.
They then used the car in a robbery of a corner shop, not the first time it seems.
They then dumped the car, but the idiots had paired a phone to the stereo?
Yes my mind boggles too.
Police found the car and eventually caught them, think the shopkeeper got a hiding.
Mum got the car back with new locks etc.
Police kept her up to date all the way through, and visited alot.
The scrotes are now doing time.
Mum was upstairs asleep through it all, scares the s
t out of me.She now locks the doors lol.
Thank god all they wanted was the car.
A mighty fiesta
paulwirral said:
Well , I’m maybe being a little harsh on our police force , the first time it happened they sent a pco round two days later who advised me to lock the windows and install a ring type door bell , she told me this whilst I was up a ladder clearly installing security cameras to the whole house !
That's what PCSOs are for (take note Essex Police), otherwise it's a Police Officer coming round to tell you to consider CCTV (while you're installing it), instead of.....you know, catching burglars 
Unfortunately the best crime prevention advice = make your neighbour's house/car look an easier target than yours.
Salted_Peanut said:
Surprisingly, they prefer the front door to make an entrance. Windows get less of a look in. Who knew?
I’m a Crime Analyst (not burglary), so could give you 10,000 words, but since I have a teenager to coax out of the house in time for school, just on this narrow point alone:“Inequality of risk” is my catchphrase at work. Say ‘burglary’ and mental image is pebbledashed Edwardian gentleman’s residence in a leafy suburb.
But . . . you’re at way way more risk as, say, a careleaver in an HMO in the cheap bit of town. With a cardboard landlord special front door.
Complicating the factor is that whilst you’d think all burglaries are reported to Police, less than half are (there’s a Home Office rule-of-thumb multiplier that I can’t recall offhand). Leafy suburb victim with insurance will report, HMO without won’t (it’s more complicated after that!).
Just looked up suggested multiplier for Domestic Burglary - it’s 3.6:1 . . . so best estimate is that 70% of burglaries are not reported to Police / recorded?
Edited by NoPackDrill on Friday 31st January 09:11
Bigends said:
Where do the figures in relation to unreported crimes come from?
The Home Office ratios come - I believe - from a comparison of Police data with Crime Survey for England & Wales results (so talking to victims - and I would worry that the most vulnerable / at risk are under represented there? Consider, again, the care leaver, distrustful of agencies in general, in an HMO, at hugely disproportionate risk of being a victim of crime).When it comes to violence I am aware of a whole range of academic studies relating, say, hospital attendances or ambulance call-outs, to Police recorded crime. I have a chunk of boilerplate “everything that’s wrong / misleading with Police crime figures” text that I put in every report . . . Home Office multiplier for Violence with Injury suggests that Police are unaware of at least 60% . . . various academic research puts it as high as 77% (I’ve seen 90% claimed, but I found the methodology suspect).
Hospital Emergency Departments have a statutory duty to collate anonymised data on violence related injuries, but that system has broken down over most of the country. So when politicians promise to “reduce youth related knife crime (or Violence Against Women and Girls, or . . .)” I tend to spit out my coffee: you’re not even measuring it accurately, so what does a reduction look like? (And no one seems that bothered, except we Analysts!).
NoPackDrill said:
Bigends said:
Where do the figures in relation to unreported crimes come from?
The Home Office ratios come - I believe - from a comparison of Police data with Crime Survey for England & Wales results (so talking to victims - and I would worry that the most vulnerable / at risk are under represented there? Consider, again, the care leaver, distrustful of agencies in general, in an HMO, at hugely disproportionate risk of being a victim of crime).When it comes to violence I am aware of a whole range of academic studies relating, say, hospital attendances or ambulance call-outs, to Police recorded crime. I have a chunk of boilerplate “everything that’s wrong / misleading with Police crime figures” text that I put in every report . . . Home Office multiplier for Violence with Injury suggests that Police are unaware of at least 60% . . . various academic research puts it as high as 77% (I’ve seen 90% claimed, but I found the methodology suspect).
Hospital Emergency Departments have a statutory duty to collate anonymised data on violence related injuries, but that system has broken down over most of the country. So when politicians promise to “reduce youth related knife crime (or Violence Against Women and Girls, or . . .)” I tend to spit out my coffee: you’re not even measuring it accurately, so what does a reduction look like? (And no one seems that bothered, except we Analysts!).
Bigends said:
I assume this means there are more people attending hospital with injuries resulting from alleged assaults than there are Police crime reports for such injuries?
More strictly speaking, that out of the people presenting with violence related injuries at the Hospital ED, less than 100% were injured as a result of incidents which are recorded on Police systems (a lot less than 100%!).Academic studies include (abbreviated!): Shepherd 1988 University of Bristol; Shepherd / Shapland / Irish / Scully / Leslie 1989; etc.
There are also a few really good write ups and assessments of how effective the “Cardiff Model” can be (when resourced and done properly). There are also some really good local initiatives going on reaching out to young people turning up at Hospital EDs with knife injuries from unreported crimes . . . but there isn’t a national grip on collecting data or doing anything with it (ditto Violence Against Women and Girls, I would argue).
NoPackDrill said:
Bigends said:
I assume this means there are more people attending hospital with injuries resulting from alleged assaults than there are Police crime reports for such injuries?
More strictly speaking, that out of the people presenting with violence related injuries at the Hospital ED, less than 100% were injured as a result of incidents which are recorded on Police systems (a lot less than 100%!).Academic studies include (abbreviated!): Shepherd 1988 University of Bristol; Shepherd / Shapland / Irish / Scully / Leslie 1989; etc.
There are also a few really good write ups and assessments of how effective the “Cardiff Model” can be (when resourced and done properly). There are also some really good local initiatives going on reaching out to young people turning up at Hospital EDs with knife injuries from unreported crimes . . . but there isn’t a national grip on collecting data or doing anything with it (ditto Violence Against Women and Girls, I would argue).
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