Will manual classic car values decrease over time?
Discussion
I'm in two minds about this.
The temptation is to say no and to observe that old car owners seem happy to wrestle with the "involving" quirks of old cars.
However, two thing give me pause.
Firstly, I'm a Talbot owner and they come with crash manuals and pre-selectors, the latter being preferred not only because it's recognised as characteristic of the type but also because (once your into the flow of it) it's vastly easier to drive with than having to mess about with double declutching all the time.
Secondly, restomods are very popular and they are, in effect, classics with the oldness worked off. If people are keen on, to the extent of spending a *lot* of money on it, the notion of a classic without the gritty realities then maybe autos are fine?
The temptation is to say no and to observe that old car owners seem happy to wrestle with the "involving" quirks of old cars.
However, two thing give me pause.
Firstly, I'm a Talbot owner and they come with crash manuals and pre-selectors, the latter being preferred not only because it's recognised as characteristic of the type but also because (once your into the flow of it) it's vastly easier to drive with than having to mess about with double declutching all the time.
Secondly, restomods are very popular and they are, in effect, classics with the oldness worked off. If people are keen on, to the extent of spending a *lot* of money on it, the notion of a classic without the gritty realities then maybe autos are fine?
As automatics and gearless cars become more popular, enthusiasts will seek out manual cars even more. I've been observing the "modern classic" supercar and performance car market for a few years and the price of an equivalent manual car can exceed the price of an automatic by up to 20%!
That said, you should go with what you actually want to drive. I prefer autos even in my weekend cars, even if they sell for less when I want to change cars.
That said, you should go with what you actually want to drive. I prefer autos even in my weekend cars, even if they sell for less when I want to change cars.
Hell no.
Look at the manufacturers like Porsche still offering the occasional manual 911 as a 'gift' to buyers.
Any manual Ferrari that came along during their cruddy semi auto phases is now far more sought out. I expect conversion kits will be offered for a lot of stuff like that.
And that's before we get to how miserable and badly performing old school 3/4 speed autos were.
Look at the manufacturers like Porsche still offering the occasional manual 911 as a 'gift' to buyers.
Any manual Ferrari that came along during their cruddy semi auto phases is now far more sought out. I expect conversion kits will be offered for a lot of stuff like that.
And that's before we get to how miserable and badly performing old school 3/4 speed autos were.
Most cars will reduce in value unless very rare and special. Look what happened to stuff from the fifties and now the sixties. Of course the exceptional cars will have value, but E Types for instance have peaked in my view, Gullwings are flat, but much more recent cars like Porsche 918s have risen. I think there's some premium for manual cars but there are much bigger factors at play.
Kids in their teens and twenties are somewhat less interested in cars; Instagram.social media text etc have supplanted the need to physically get together, and the whole car thing is going obsolete as a dream.
Glad I came from a much older generation
......
Kids in their teens and twenties are somewhat less interested in cars; Instagram.social media text etc have supplanted the need to physically get together, and the whole car thing is going obsolete as a dream.
Glad I came from a much older generation
......RDMcG said:
Most cars will reduce in value unless very rare and special. Look what happened to stuff from the fifties and now the sixties.
Values - for anything that isn't pure blue chip - align with the generations that dreamed of owning the current crop of hot classics being in a position to buy them. That falls off as they wind up in nappies and croak. There definitely will be far less interest in cars in general when current young folk get older and richer, but I expect the ones that are engaged will favour manuals where they're available.
There's a line where autos are no longer inferior, or manuals are simply unavailable of course.
I don't believe the issue is whether the car is automatic or manual. In USA as an example, I don't believe manual classic prices are impacted.
What will impact prices are external pressures such as cost of housing and other living costs which are putting increasing pressure on disposable income. Additionally, social trends seem to be moving people away from classic car ownership.
Society is so fickle that this latter point could turn quickly if enough interest is generated but it needs momentum to do that.
What will impact prices are external pressures such as cost of housing and other living costs which are putting increasing pressure on disposable income. Additionally, social trends seem to be moving people away from classic car ownership.
Society is so fickle that this latter point could turn quickly if enough interest is generated but it needs momentum to do that.
I don't think the question is which transmission is the better investment, I think the real question is how much longer will the classic car scene as we know it last.
There are already signs of the less desirable incarnations of classics starting to drop in value, even on rock solid classics like E types. Lesser classics that are currently worth something because of rarety value will eventually cost too much to keep on the road and they will disapear. Spending £10k on a classic Ferrari might be considered acceptable/justifyable, but not on an Allegro etc.
Where you might now have three old blokes who have money to burn bidding on an RS2000 to have one again, running it up to a silly price to 'win', what if there was only one of them bidding, what would it be worth then? Once future generations come through that have more interest in social media than 'old cars' as opposed to classic cars the value of anything other the big classics will start to drop. Once the number of classic cars out there will reduce the businesses making a living from supporting them will reduce. Once keeping one going becomes even harder work and more expensive than it is today the enthusiasm will dwindle and as those owners die off it ends there. My mate currently has 6 classic cars, his kids could not even tell you what colour they are, like the rest of us he isn't getting any younger and he has now decided to keep one and cash in his chips on the rest and spend it.
Go to any classic car show you went to 10 years ago and compare the turnout, as much as it saddens me to say it it isn't hard to see where this is going - all IMO.
There are already signs of the less desirable incarnations of classics starting to drop in value, even on rock solid classics like E types. Lesser classics that are currently worth something because of rarety value will eventually cost too much to keep on the road and they will disapear. Spending £10k on a classic Ferrari might be considered acceptable/justifyable, but not on an Allegro etc.
Where you might now have three old blokes who have money to burn bidding on an RS2000 to have one again, running it up to a silly price to 'win', what if there was only one of them bidding, what would it be worth then? Once future generations come through that have more interest in social media than 'old cars' as opposed to classic cars the value of anything other the big classics will start to drop. Once the number of classic cars out there will reduce the businesses making a living from supporting them will reduce. Once keeping one going becomes even harder work and more expensive than it is today the enthusiasm will dwindle and as those owners die off it ends there. My mate currently has 6 classic cars, his kids could not even tell you what colour they are, like the rest of us he isn't getting any younger and he has now decided to keep one and cash in his chips on the rest and spend it.
Go to any classic car show you went to 10 years ago and compare the turnout, as much as it saddens me to say it it isn't hard to see where this is going - all IMO.
981Boxess said:
Go to any classic car show you went to 10 years ago and compare the turnout, as much as it saddens me to say it it isn't hard to see where this is going - all IMO.
I don’t think that’s strictly true.Numerous shows I’ve been unable to attend this year due to there being no more room to exhibit my car due to me not getting my bum in gear quick enough to apply for a ticket. What I do find though we are seeing more Cars and Coffee type events with the younger generation more prominent in their Golfs and Fiesta STs type cars.
As for the manual box everything has been stacked in its favour for a lot of sports cars, it was more sporty than the old auto boxes, it was rarer, it is simpler to fix than a lot of the automatic gearboxes on offer. Some of the new technology on automatic gearboxes soon becomes dated and can become problematic but the manual remains straightforward. I think if you take the resale value on a Ferrari that offered an F1 gearbox or a conventional manual box the car with the manual box can command up to 100% more especially in the US.
whimsical ninja said:
Won't be an issue for a while yet but in decades to come the number of people licensed to drive manuals will decrease.
Yes, I was thinking of a few decades time, when most people do auto driving tests. There might not be enough people interested in buy manual classic cars and subsequently the values might decrease.A few points.
Firstly, it's not just the UK we should think about, there is a whole wide world out there with billions of people and tens of millions of old cars.
Secondly, the classic car market covers a wide range, from 40 year old mass produced commuter cars to supercars which cost silly money new.
Thirdly, classic owners range from people driving them as their main car, to 'investors' who own some in a 'storage facility' somewhere.
Fourthly, the cars range from immaculate, low mileage originals through to rusty bodged sheds with many original parts missing.
I don't think the auto license thing will be that significant. It currently doesn't cost that much to convert.
I suspect a lot of the kinds of people likely to get involved with old cars will do the manual test route anyway.
If you think your job might ever involve driving a van, you'll be getting a manual test for some years to come.
My guess is that museum grade cars will be subject to the whims of the rich, while many old sheds will continue to become Beyond Economic Repair.
There are always old cars being scrapped, there always will be.
I think there will be less people treating 2010 cars as classics in 2030, than there were treating 2000 cars as classics in 2020.
Smaller pool of cars and a smaller pool of buyers?
The other thing is, motorsport. People will spend a lot on classic cars/bikes/boats, if they are actively using them many weekends a year. These are people who put a lot of money into the industry, keeping the skills current etc.
Firstly, it's not just the UK we should think about, there is a whole wide world out there with billions of people and tens of millions of old cars.
Secondly, the classic car market covers a wide range, from 40 year old mass produced commuter cars to supercars which cost silly money new.
Thirdly, classic owners range from people driving them as their main car, to 'investors' who own some in a 'storage facility' somewhere.
Fourthly, the cars range from immaculate, low mileage originals through to rusty bodged sheds with many original parts missing.
I don't think the auto license thing will be that significant. It currently doesn't cost that much to convert.
I suspect a lot of the kinds of people likely to get involved with old cars will do the manual test route anyway.
If you think your job might ever involve driving a van, you'll be getting a manual test for some years to come.
My guess is that museum grade cars will be subject to the whims of the rich, while many old sheds will continue to become Beyond Economic Repair.
There are always old cars being scrapped, there always will be.
I think there will be less people treating 2010 cars as classics in 2030, than there were treating 2000 cars as classics in 2020.
Smaller pool of cars and a smaller pool of buyers?
The other thing is, motorsport. People will spend a lot on classic cars/bikes/boats, if they are actively using them many weekends a year. These are people who put a lot of money into the industry, keeping the skills current etc.
Mark_Blanchard said:
Yes, I was thinking of a few decades time, when most people do auto driving tests. There might not be enough people interested in buy manual classic cars and subsequently the values might decrease.
One day soon enough not one single manual vehicle will be available to buy new, at which point they'll have to either make licences a free for all or offer a quick online test using your little brother's racing wheel and gearbox. A manual box will be so niche it's hard to believe there'll be any separation by then.
We also have to consider what constitutes value decrease? Inflation means a £100K car now, even if £100K in 10 years time, will be worth less than currently. I guess the question is still relevant though as the OP is really talking about relative values.
There are many classics currently where the auto version is worth less. - I certainly see that differential reducing as the bias against autos in the UK at least, disappears.
There are many classics currently where the auto version is worth less. - I certainly see that differential reducing as the bias against autos in the UK at least, disappears.
Pistom said:
There are many classics currently where the auto version is worth less. - I certainly see that differential reducing as the bias against autos in the UK at least, disappears.
Even if perception changes, in many cases the auto version is objectively worse or becomes a liability. RDMcG said:
Most cars will reduce in value unless very rare and special. Look what happened to stuff from the fifties and now the sixties. Of course the exceptional cars will have value, but E Types for instance have peaked in my view, Gullwings are flat, but much more recent cars like Porsche 918s have risen. I think there's some premium for manual cars but there are much bigger factors at play.
Kids in their teens and twenties are somewhat less interested in cars; Instagram.social media text etc have supplanted the need to physically get together, and the whole car thing is going obsolete as a dream.
Glad I came from a much older generation......
50s porridge like Oxfords, Austin counties, most Rootes saloons, Ford and Vauxhall first gen monocoques have never been worth very much and this will continue.Kids in their teens and twenties are somewhat less interested in cars; Instagram.social media text etc have supplanted the need to physically get together, and the whole car thing is going obsolete as a dream.
Glad I came from a much older generation
......Pistom said:
We also have to consider what constitutes value decrease? Inflation means a £100K car now, even if £100K in 10 years time, will be worth less than currently.......
But that's perhaps OK if the car is providing 'value' now, i.e. it's useful or you enjoy owning it.Even if a car goes up in real terms, there is a cost of ownership. Storage, maintenance, insurance etc.
If a classic is the alternative to buying a 'nice' modern car, the classic can be seen as saving you hundreds a month.
If it's seen as an investment, then once prices stop rising, the market is in trouble.
The bias against auto might decrease, because most people eventually end up driving a modern auto, but older cars with modest power and an old school 3 or 4 speed automatic will still be horrible. Auto has always been OK with ample power and cheap enough fuel.
Some modern classics, or maybe 'future classics' the auto option pushes the car into the comedy high tax bracket, a lot of these cars will be scrapped while they are low value high cost.
Eventually some cars will be come rarer, which might push values up, but these days a person seeking an interesting car has oceans of choice.
There are lots of 'special' modern cars and lots of old cars.
OutInTheShed said:
I don't think the auto license thing will be that significant. It currently doesn't cost that much to convert.
I suspect a lot of the kinds of people likely to get involved with old cars will do the manual test route anyway.
If you think your job might ever involve driving a van, you'll be getting a manual test for some years to come.
Thing in the news today said that in 2015/16, 7% of driving tests were taken in an automatic, and in 2023/24 it was 23%I suspect a lot of the kinds of people likely to get involved with old cars will do the manual test route anyway.
If you think your job might ever involve driving a van, you'll be getting a manual test for some years to come.
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