Protecting oneself from a recession
Discussion
We seem to be on the cusp of a recession with property prices stalling, record amounts of government debt interest-aging population so what’s the solution Swiss Francs as Gold and Bitcoins seem to be at an ATH.
https://news.sky.com/story/theres-one-thing-scarie...
https://news.sky.com/story/theres-one-thing-scarie...
Ted.
Bless ya heart - you do have a habit of worrying excessively about how the sky is always about to fall in, whether that is BTL, the housing market, or other things.
Heck, you were looking at popping a million on easy money.com.
That suggests you might be able to afford to ride out any recession, no?
Or perhaps pay an IFA to help set your mind at ease. Not sure what else they might do for a nervous investor, but worth a chat?
Good luck finding the golden goose. The rest of us with have to muddle through, spreading money around ISAs, GIAs., etc. I’m going to assume you have already filled your Premium Bonds and a steady National a savings bond - that will keep a chunk of your cash protected.
Recessions come and go. If you are really worried about the world, maybe invest in canned food & guns
Bless ya heart - you do have a habit of worrying excessively about how the sky is always about to fall in, whether that is BTL, the housing market, or other things.
Heck, you were looking at popping a million on easy money.com.
That suggests you might be able to afford to ride out any recession, no?
Or perhaps pay an IFA to help set your mind at ease. Not sure what else they might do for a nervous investor, but worth a chat?
Good luck finding the golden goose. The rest of us with have to muddle through, spreading money around ISAs, GIAs., etc. I’m going to assume you have already filled your Premium Bonds and a steady National a savings bond - that will keep a chunk of your cash protected.
Recessions come and go. If you are really worried about the world, maybe invest in canned food & guns
wisbech said:
Best way is to have a job. Recessions are a problem when you get laid off.
Exactly. That and the collapse of property values on the back of the income losses and subsequent defaults. Nothing else really matters. Your investments are blue chip assets in a portfolio where time irons out the periods of lacklustre or negative performance. But a household losing is income in a country that has no savings among those of working age is just a catastrophe.
And you don't need a recession for that. You might see the adoption of AI cull sufficient higher income jobs in a short enough time to trigger mortgage and rent defaults of sufficient volume to change the market.
Recessions don't really bother the retired. They're mortgage free and not exposed to employment risk. And no one cares that a retirement portfolio could take a modest dip for a short period of time. Especially after so many years of gains and he huge inflation of property values.
Nor do they really impact those on the breadline as they don't have mortgages either and the differential between employment income and UC is not a chasm.
They would be the two groups making the most noise and demanding more handouts but in a proper recession it is the middle to higher income working households who quietly get devastated, the actual tax paying core of society that does all the heavy lifting are the people who pay the price and will never be heard from as they're drowned out by others.
The recession of 2008 was mostly a really good thing for me, my job was safe as I worked in the public sector, my wife managed to keep her job and our mortgage interest rate plummeted from 5% to 0.48% reducing our monthly mortgage payments by about £400 for the many many years after. Overall the recession gave us more spending money.
The Gauge said:
The recession of 2008 was mostly a really good thing for me, my job was safe as I worked in the public sector, my wife managed to keep her job and our mortgage interest rate plummeted from 5% to 0.48% reducing our monthly mortgage payments by about £400 for the many many years after. Overall the recession gave us more spending money.
In contrast the firm I was working for went under and caused nearly 100 people to lose their jobs. Glad to you were ok though.mikeiow said:
Ted.
Bless ya heart - you do have a habit of worrying excessively about how the sky is always about to fall in, whether that is BTL, the housing market, or other things.
Heck, you were looking at popping a million on easy money.com.
That suggests you might be able to afford to ride out any recession, no?
Or perhaps pay an IFA to help set your mind at ease. Not sure what else they might do for a nervous investor, but worth a chat?
Good luck finding the golden goose. The rest of us with have to muddle through, spreading money around ISAs, GIAs., etc. I’m going to assume you have already filled your Premium Bonds and a steady National a savings bond - that will keep a chunk of your cash protected.
Recessions come and go. If you are really worried about the world, maybe invest in canned food & guns
Hard to disagree with these sentiments.Bless ya heart - you do have a habit of worrying excessively about how the sky is always about to fall in, whether that is BTL, the housing market, or other things.
Heck, you were looking at popping a million on easy money.com.
That suggests you might be able to afford to ride out any recession, no?
Or perhaps pay an IFA to help set your mind at ease. Not sure what else they might do for a nervous investor, but worth a chat?
Good luck finding the golden goose. The rest of us with have to muddle through, spreading money around ISAs, GIAs., etc. I’m going to assume you have already filled your Premium Bonds and a steady National a savings bond - that will keep a chunk of your cash protected.
Recessions come and go. If you are really worried about the world, maybe invest in canned food & guns
Would add that if concerns exist about where to invest not sure I see trading Crypto ( you don't invest but trade ) as being an answer to reducing stress.
I get the Gold thoughts but as a percentage of wealth ( % ?) and then physical holdings / doomsday thoughts and actually being able to use ?
The Gauge said:
The recession of 2008 was mostly a really good thing for me, my job was safe as I worked in the public sector, my wife managed to keep her job and our mortgage interest rate plummeted from 5% to 0.48% reducing our monthly mortgage payments by about £400 for the many many years after. Overall the recession gave us more spending money.
Yup. Arguably it wasn't really a recession as governments borrowed and devalued to ensure jobs weren't lost. Same with Covid. There is a chasm between a technical recession within the economy and a true recession and the difference is really defined by middle income employment. Arguably, only those over 55 have ever directly experienced a true recession.
worsy said:
The Gauge said:
The recession of 2008 was mostly a really good thing for me, my job was safe as I worked in the public sector, my wife managed to keep her job and our mortgage interest rate plummeted from 5% to 0.48% reducing our monthly mortgage payments by about £400 for the many many years after. Overall the recession gave us more spending money.
In contrast the firm I was working for went under and caused nearly 100 people to lose their jobs. Glad to you were ok though.Like Covid, a recession has those who gain and those who lose, some massively so, and often through no particular input of their own, just fate I suppose.
My job has provided an element of job security but at the cost of other things such as wage freezes, never earning a big wage. We all make our choices in life and the outcomes aren’t always predictable. Life provides ups and downs, me keeping my job was an up, working in a toxic environment where bullying is rife and sackings are dished out unfairly, is a down. My early retirement will be an up, but any unforeseen health problems as I age will be a down. And so it goes on.
As for investments, when I get my lump sum I will be too grateful of it to put it at risk by chasing gains, all I’ll want is to protect it from inflation to maintain its value.
Edited by The Gauge on Tuesday 19th August 10:10
wisbech said:
Best way is to have a job. Recessions are a problem when you get laid off.
Or be retired.Having struggled through three recessions, being made redundant three times, I am now cushioned by retirement. I have a small private pension, but other investments which should be recession proof.
Working for the government or a local authority is another way to recession proof. As long as it is in an essential service.
The bad thing about recessions is employers using the economic climate to stagnate or reduce wages.
macron said:
The swiss economy is f
ked with US tariffs.
And yet the USD/CHF has barely moved outside a bit of noise since the tariffs were announced, CHF is still hovering around all time highs against EUR and GBP and gold has slipped back.ked with US tariffs. I‘ve lived in Switzerland for 16 years and have seen the pound slip from 1.8 to around 1.08. EUR from 1.6 to 0.93. USD has been all over the place. Every time I think CHF can‘t get any stronger, RoW goes and does something stupid and proves me wrong. Looking at charts against every major currency since Bretton Woods, they all go in the same direction over time.
DonkeyApple said:
Exactly. That and the collapse of property values on the back of the income losses and subsequent defaults.
Nothing else really matters. Your investments are blue chip assets in a portfolio where time irons out the periods of lacklustre or negative performance. ...
Nothing else really matters. Your investments are blue chip assets in a portfolio where time irons out the periods of lacklustre or negative performance. ...
You will know that there is a way of tilting the investment balance in our favour, before and during a recession.
When an economy declines, humans still need certain goods and services to maintain life.
Think about which businesses provide those requirements.
Even the share prices of essentials businesses will decline, because that is what happens when panic occurs, but the important part is that their revenue and profitability will stand up far better than discretionary type businesses. They will decline less and recover strongly. The general decline even offers specific opportunities.
Jon39 said:
DonkeyApple said:
Exactly. That and the collapse of property values on the back of the income losses and subsequent defaults.
Nothing else really matters. Your investments are blue chip assets in a portfolio where time irons out the periods of lacklustre or negative performance. ...
Nothing else really matters. Your investments are blue chip assets in a portfolio where time irons out the periods of lacklustre or negative performance. ...
You will know that there is a way of tilting the investment balance in our favour, before and during a recession.
When an economy declines, humans still need certain goods and services to maintain life.
Think about which businesses provide those requirements.
Even the share prices of essentials businesses will decline, because that is what happens when panic occurs, but the important part is that their revenue and profitability will stand up far better than discretionary type businesses. They will decline less and recover strongly. The general decline even offers specific opportunities.
The likes of Amazon, Colgate, GlaxoSmithKline, Diageo, Coke Cola, etc.
Curious that @GoodPlanTed started another thread he hasn’t returned to.
I wonder if he has a good plan now
mikeiow said:
Ted.
Bless ya heart - you do have a habit of worrying excessively about how the sky is always about to fall in, whether that is BTL, the housing market, or other things.
Heck, you were looking at popping a million on easy money.com.
That suggests you might be able to afford to ride out any recession, no?
Or perhaps pay an IFA to help set your mind at ease. Not sure what else they might do for a nervous investor, but worth a chat?
Good luck finding the golden goose. The rest of us with have to muddle through, spreading money around ISAs, GIAs., etc. I’m going to assume you have already filled your Premium Bonds and a steady National a savings bond - that will keep a chunk of your cash protected.
Recessions come and go. If you are really worried about the world, maybe invest in canned food & guns
Loved Chicken Little growing up Bless ya heart - you do have a habit of worrying excessively about how the sky is always about to fall in, whether that is BTL, the housing market, or other things.
Heck, you were looking at popping a million on easy money.com.
That suggests you might be able to afford to ride out any recession, no?
Or perhaps pay an IFA to help set your mind at ease. Not sure what else they might do for a nervous investor, but worth a chat?
Good luck finding the golden goose. The rest of us with have to muddle through, spreading money around ISAs, GIAs., etc. I’m going to assume you have already filled your Premium Bonds and a steady National a savings bond - that will keep a chunk of your cash protected.
Recessions come and go. If you are really worried about the world, maybe invest in canned food & guns
I think Ted is dodging acorns.mikeiow said:
Ahh, the original premise behind PH Equity, for those who remember.
The likes of Amazon, Colgate, GlaxoSmithKline, Diageo, Coke Cola, etc.
The likes of Amazon, Colgate, GlaxoSmithKline, Diageo, Coke Cola, etc.
Diagio and Coke Cola - hardly essential products for sustaining life.
Amazon - possibly, but my own purchases from them, mostly consists of 'stuff' that is useful, but which I don't really need.
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