Is our politics changing?

[ntiz]

This is probably hyperbole, but I was thinking the other day are we seeing a major shift in UK politics?

The conservatives seem to have completely blown it for at least a decade maybe forever depending on how things go from here. The traditional alternative of Labour obviously benefited with a huge majority win now appear to be equally as hated by both the centrist who swung and the more traditional left leaning core vote. General sentiment in my circle is simply they are both equally as useless and have let the country down in one form or another for decades.

Which seems to have created the situation for Reform to step into the Conservative space on the right and the left seems to also be trying to create their own alternatives in the Green Party and Your party to move into Labours space. Both seemingly looking to be "properly right wing or "properly left wing" to do the things that they feel 2 traditional parties have abandoned. Alternatives seem to be being talked about seriously for the first time in my life time.

Are we effectively seeing the end of the 2 traditional parties as dominant forces for the first time in decades?

If so is this a good or bad thing for the future?

[Randy Winkman]

You've seen how upset lots of people on PH have got about the Labour government this year? Well, I'd suggest that if the government gets more extreme, the level of upset will get way worse. It's heading that way in the US now.

[andymadmak]

ntiz said:

This is probably hyperbole, but I was thinking the other day are we seeing a major shift in UK politics?

The conservatives seem to have completely blown it for at least a decade maybe forever depending on how things go from here. The traditional alternative of Labour obviously benefited with a huge majority win now appear to be equally as hated by both the centrist who swung and the more traditional left leaning core vote. General sentiment in my circle is simply they are both equally as useless and have let the country down in one form or another for decades.

Which seems to have created the situation for Reform to step into the Conservative space on the right and the left seems to also be trying to create their own alternatives in the Green Party and Your party to move into Labours space. Both seemingly looking to be "properly right wing or "properly left wing" to do the things that they feel 2 traditional parties have abandoned. Alternatives seem to be being talked about seriously for the first time in my life time.

Are we effectively seeing the end of the 2 traditional parties as dominant forces for the first time in decades?

If so is this a good or bad thing for the future?

I am old enough to remember the Social Democrats (original SDP from the early 1980s) and the "breath of fresh air" they supposedly brought to politics at that time. Got as high as about 25% in the polls too for a short time, then eventually merged with the Liberals to become the Lib/SDP Alliance and then eventually vanished.
I also remember that people were saying that Labour were finished for ever when Brown lost the election.....

BUT, I think the biggest issue we face today is the quality of our elected representatives - it's largely awful. Oh, I am sure that many (most) back bench MPs are genuinely doing their best and have good intentions in mind, regardless of which part of the political landscape they inhabit, but the absolute dross that passes for leadership material these days is both worrying and depressing.
Starmer is not a leader. Badenoch has shown little sign that she knows how to lead and Ed Davey just wants to have fun. Farage at least gives some impression that he wants to talk about "the issues" (in fact he seems to set the agenda for everyone) but I cannot be happy that he may one day be Prime Minister. He's not worthy of that position, but then again neither is Starmer.

[98elise]

andymadmak said:

I also remember that people were saying that Labour were finished for ever when Brown lost the election.....

The same was said when Corbyn was beaten by a landslide, or at least for a decade. Then the Tories blew it and we had a Labour landslide.

Now were back to Labour being very unpopular.

[ntiz]

98elise said:

andymadmak said:

I also remember that people were saying that Labour were finished for ever when Brown lost the election.....

The same was said when Corbyn was beaten by a landslide, or at least for a decade. Then the Tories blew it and we had a Labour landslide.

Now were back to Labour being very unpopular.

You could argue that this is different because those times there was never any doubt that the alternative was the conservatives. Both of them are currently in the "not for a decade" naughty step. Which is leaving a vacuum that is seemingly being filled.

I'm quite young this could have happened before it just feels different because the sentiment doesn't seem to be an automatic swing to the traditional alternative.

[isaldiri]

Randy Winkman said:

You've seen how upset lots of people on PH have got about the Labour government this year? Well, I'd suggest that if the government gets more extreme, the level of upset will get way worse. It's heading that way in the US now.

what goes around comes around. plenty of people on PH were spewing about Johnson/truss and the tories before so it's just a reversal of what came before now....

[Hants PHer]

ntiz said:

<edited for brevity>
Are we effectively seeing the end of the 2 traditional parties as dominant forces for the first time in decades?
If so is this a good or bad thing for the future?

In my opinion, yes and no. On the one hand, there are still safe seats of either the red or blue variety. For example, I live in the Hamble Valley constituency and I can't imagine it ever being anything other than Tory.

But on the other hand there's now a degree of voter volatility that I don't recall happening before. After 14 years we had a Tory government that was unpopular with the electorate, who delivered a huge majority for Labour. 15 months on and it's "Ohmigod, this lot are even worse! OK then, let's try Reform, or perhaps the Green Party".

I saw a quote the other day from the Green Party's head of elections, Chris Williams, who said that getting a swing to win a seat used to be like trying to climb Everest. Now, he said, it was more like climbing Snowdon.

It's entirely possible that come 2029 we'll have a genuine five way split between Labour, Tory, Reform, LibDem and Greens. Not exactly 20% each of course, but yes, a distinct change from what we've been used to.

Whether all this is a good or bad thing is hard to say since it's a fairly new situation.

[Phud]

ntiz said:

You could argue that this is different because those times there was never any doubt that the alternative was the conservatives. Both of them are currently in the "not for a decade" naughty step. Which is leaving a vacuum that is seemingly being filled.

I'm quite young this could have happened before it just feels different because the sentiment doesn't seem to be an automatic swing to the traditional alternative.

I'm getting to the point in life where I look in a room and see I'm the old one, so at a different point in life to you ntiz, I am minded that there has been a change, shift from politics being done after a career in either the unions or business, now we seem to have career politics, where saying something and show is what is important, not as I have always understood it the running of the country for the people of teh country.

There is a cigarette paper between either of the two major parties, both are filled with people who have no real world experiance to bring to the table, where promoting the best for the contry seems to be ignored in favour of some repeated inage of a utopia where the masses will fit in or be guided as to how they should alter their thoughts.

the continual shouting of extreme in either thought or politics removes the value of those words.

It is my view that the USA got there and Trump was voted in because he is not seen and a politican. Yet the politicans are not reading the room, the same I feel here, politicans can be told the rooms feelings but have no care, regard or worry about the capacity of the room to change what they are doing

[Countdown]

Phud said:

It is my view that the USA got there and Trump was voted in because he is not seen and a politican.

He got in because he lied and appealed to the Electorate's basest views. I can see the same happening in the UK

[Phud]

Countdown said:

He got in because he lied and appealed to the Electorate's basest views. I can see the same happening in the UK

I understand what you write Countdown, serious request, when was the last politican who did what they said, almost acting as if the manifesto was a contract?

I think that for Trump to get in twice is not just the lies but a deeper issue with politicans and the people, and yes we are going to see the same here

[Mr Penguin]

Probably not. Almost all democracies run on the basis of left (pro nationalisation, pro distribution of wealth etc) vs right (pro privatisation, pro tax cuts etc) and the parties broadly represent their voters wishes. Rejigging the parties which represent those interests won't fundamentally change anything because people who used to join Labour/Conservative would go to the new big two parties.

If a new political order emerges over the next twenty years or so it will have to follow this but:
Labour have the funding from the unions to keep going through bad times and it will take a lot to get rid of them or shift them from the left
Reform are lead by Thatcherites but are appealing to traditionally Labour seats so will move to the left (in before someone shares the latest poll as a substitute for policy or guiding principles)
The Lib Dems attack Labour from the bungee cord on the left

So none of those parties are likely to take over the from the Conservatives as the major party on the centre-right which could be a revitalised Conservative Party, a party which currently only has 100 members, or a party which currently doesn't exist.

[Randy Winkman]

isaldiri said:

Randy Winkman said:

You've seen how upset lots of people on PH have got about the Labour government this year? Well, I'd suggest that if the government gets more extreme, the level of upset will get way worse. It's heading that way in the US now.

what goes around comes around. plenty of people on PH were spewing about Johnson/truss and the tories before so it's just a reversal of what came before now....

I agree - and that's the point, I think.

[EmBe]

Phud said:

It is my view that the USA got there and Trump was voted in because he is not seen and a politican. Yet the politicans are not reading the room, the same I feel here, politicans can be told the rooms feelings but have no care, regard or worry about the capacity of the room to change what they are doing

I genuinely think that most of the present political crop look at the electorate and see a completely different species to themselves. It's not that they're not reading the room, it's that they simply can't understand anything outside of politics.
Probably because, as you said, they've never lived outside of the political bubble.
Trump won partly I think because he had a life before politics and didn't speak to voters in that political language, and Farage holds the same appeal to a lot of people here. Whether you like Farage or not, there are a lot of people who'll vote for Reform just to topple the political concensus that says either LAB or CON win but otherwise things stay the same (or continue to get worse).