Forcing an early General Election

[French Frank]

Asking for a friend.

What mechanisms are there that lead to a Government with a large majority having to call a General Election early?

I know that the Monarch has this power, but it seems highly unlikely that a modern Royal would use it.

Does it need to be civil unrest on a massive scale, a general strike causing economic collapse, proper chaos with the Army on the streets?

Or are there more peaceful (maybe even honourable) ways to achieve this?

[ChocolateFrog]

Like a bloodless coup?

[Rufus Stone]

I watched a tv program about the Gunpowder Plot the other day.

[Sheets Tabuer]

Username checks out Viva la revolución

[s1962a]

Only Labour can do this and fat chance.

[valiant]

You wait unril there’s a GE and vote accordingly.

It’s up to government of the day to call one and any Monarch that gets a bit antsy would cause a constitutional crisis.

[Kevin Cozner]

With teflon Kier in charge? It isn't going to happen, they know there's no way back for them so will cling onto office (and their jobs) before being dumped onto the doll in 2029.

[eharding]

Rufus Stone said:

I watched a tv program about the Gunpowder Plot the other day.

You'll recall that ended badly for Fawkes (although he did apparently managed to avoid experiencing the drawing and quartering part of his execution by making sure the hanging part was more effective than was intended), and that tomorrow we're going to celebrate the 420th anniversary of the failure of his plot by burning his effigy on bonfires and scaring pets all over the country with fireworks.

[stuckmojo]

An early election is very unlikely, unless Labour MPS revolt to the point of committing Seppuku. Not even they are that stupid.

[glazbagun]

French Frank said:

Asking for a friend.

What mechanisms are there that lead to a Government with a large majority having to call a General Election early?

I know that the Monarch has this power, but it seems highly unlikely that a modern Royal would use it.

Does it need to be civil unrest on a massive scale, a general strike causing economic collapse, proper chaos with the Army on the streets?

Or are there more peaceful (maybe even honourable) ways to achieve this?

It happened for Sunak when he ran out of ideas and the party had ran out of ministers who had any chance of holding the party together. So some scandal would have to engulf SKS and then everyone who followed him.

Or you could get a situation like Cameron/May, where the successor wants legitimacy and a few more years and calls a GE when they feel they're sitting high.

Regarding your mentioned options, we had mass riots, refusal to pay taxes and Met police cracking the heads of miners before and Thatcher's party still managed to stay in power afterwards. Same for Blair after the biggest protests in the 21st century.

Edited by glazbagun on Tuesday 4th November 14:07

[John145]

Only 2 options I can foresee:

Andy Burnham becomes an MP through a by-election, then a vote of no confidence with Labour believing the country wants Andy to run the country.

Next budget fails to pass, vote of no confidence, election called. This would be turkeys voting for Christmas, Labour only got 9 million votes in the last election (2 million less than when they had comrade Corbyn leading the party).

Basically it needs enough Labour MPs to believe they can win a fresh mandate off Starmer. They may be thick but probably not that thick to know an election now would be a disaster for them.

[stuckmojo]

John145 said:

Only 2 options I can foresee:

Andy Burnham becomes an MP through a by-election, then a vote of no confidence with Labour believing the country wants Andy to run the country.

Next budget fails to pass, vote of no confidence, election called. This would be turkeys voting for Christmas, Labour only got 9 million votes in the last election (2 million less than when they had comrade Corbyn leading the party).

Basically it needs enough Labour MPs to believe they can win a fresh mandate off Starmer. They may be thick but probably not that thick to know an election now would be a disaster for them.

Unless they somehow conjure a satanic alliance of greens, Jezbollah, what's left of safe Labour seat, PC in Wales and they'd still get in.

The sum of all fears.

[valiant]

Start a .gov petition.

That’ll definitely work this time…

[blueg33]

French Frank said:

Asking for a friend.

What mechanisms are there that lead to a Government with a large majority having to call a General Election early?

I know that the Monarch has this power, but it seems highly unlikely that a modern Royal would use it.

Does it need to be civil unrest on a massive scale, a general strike causing economic collapse, proper chaos with the Army on the streets?

Or are there more peaceful (maybe even honourable) ways to achieve this?

Sounds like you have listened to Farage and believed him.

A word to the wise - don't do that. Listening is good believing is very unwise

[mike9009]

French Frank said:

Asking for a friend.

What mechanisms are there that lead to a Government with a large majority having to call a General Election early?

I know that the Monarch has this power, but it seems highly unlikely that a modern Royal would use it.

Does it need to be civil unrest on a massive scale, a general strike causing economic collapse, proper chaos with the Army on the streets?

Or are there more peaceful (maybe even honourable) ways to achieve this?

Is it the 5th November yet??

[brake fader]

Highly unlikely to call one early as Starmer thinks they are doing a sterling job with the wrecking ball not yet in full swing, further and faster on immigration, borrowing and higher taxes for working people is all going to plan.

[tim0409]

The only scenario I can envisage for an early election is that the government continue with their current (ruinous) economic policies, which will invariably lead to higher borrowing/costs at which point the bond market says no thanks. They are then forced into making massive cuts to public spending, which the backbenchers can't stomach, VONC, then election.

Perhaps it's far fetched but it's the only way out of this doom loop. Politicians aren't being honest with the electorate regarding the seriousness of our position, and a large swathe of the general public don't want to know either. It will take a financial crisis to bring matters to a head.

[Ridgemont]

I suspect things might start moving after locals next May.

If it s as bad as forecast then suddenly a lot of fat arses on the green benches will start worrying about future job prospects in 29.

At which point Starmer gets dumped and a replacement gets found with possibly a brief rally in numbers which might persuade them to call a snap election to see if they can hold onto some kind of majority because currently they ll be trashed as a political force if nothing changes in 3.5 years.

[JNW1]

tim0409 said:

The only scenario I can envisage for an early election is that the government continue with their current (ruinous) economic policies, which will invariably lead to higher borrowing/costs at which point the bond market says no thanks. They are then forced into making massive cuts to public spending, which the backbenchers can't stomach, VONC, then election.

Perhaps it's far fetched but it's the only way out of this doom loop. Politicians aren't being honest with the electorate regarding the seriousness of our position, and a large swathe of the general public don't want to know either. It will take a financial crisis to bring matters to a head.

I think you're right - the only way we'll get an early election is if the markets completely lose confidence in the government and force them to make decisions which their own back benchers refuse to support.

But as a scenario I think that's so unlikely we can probably discount it - which means this lot have another 3.5 years in charge and god knows what state the country will be in by then...

[fido]

This has to be the most unpopular government ever in the UK with 79% disapproval from the public. Heath called an earlier election in 1974 as damage limitation but there’s no such incentive for Labour as they are floored anyway.