Rejoice: EU is on the verge of saving combustion
'Ban on combustion engines is off the table' says EU lawmaker, as 2035 deadline goes in the bin
We suspected it was coming. Indeed, the boss of Lamborghini told a room full of hacks last month that he was virtually certain it was in the pipeline - and the EU itself, never less than leaky, has been signalling for weeks that it was about to succumb to the intense lobbying on the subject. But now we have what seems like confirmation. The plan to effectively phase out combustion engines in 2035 will be abandoned by the EU next week, as it seeks an alternative (i.e. more realistic and less damaging) route to reduced emissions.
That’s according to Manfred Weber, president of the largest party in the European Parliament. "For new registrations from 2035 onwards, a 90 per cent reduction in CO2 emissions will now be mandatory for car manufacturers' fleet targets, instead of 100 per cent,” Weber told Bild, Germany’s giant-selling tabloid. Of course, that 10 per cent makes all the difference in the world to an industry that would very much like to remain in the business of burning petrol for as long as possible.
He continued: "There will also be no 100% target from 2040 onwards. This means that the technology ban on combustion engines is off the table. All engines currently manufactured in Germany can therefore continue to be produced and sold." Of course, assuming it is confirmed by official decree next week, this will be welcomed by the likes of Porsche and BMW as deeply agreeable news, as it virtually guarantees the long-term existence of a new generation of petrol-electric powertrains and offers them an ongoing technical advantage over Chinese rivals.
Moreover, while Weber makes no bones about the reasoning behind the prospective rule change - it is chiefly about securing ‘tens of thousands of industrial jobs’ - it is also likely to find favour with buyers disinclined to make the switch to battery power. As you might expect, PH is inclined to bang a saucepan out of the nearest window in celebration, though for now it is obviously unclear what the change in legislation would mean for the UK. Typically, and not least to ensure the competitiveness of domestic carmakers, the government has fallen in line with EU regulations and timescales - but perhaps it would be a brave soul to bet his or her mortgage on common sense prevailing this time around. As ever, thoughts welcome below.
If they want to keep the exciting engines for the six-figure sports/luxury marques, then everything below that will have to be electric.
And for everyone without prestige stuff in their portfolio, you have to wonder if it actually makes sense for them to develop ICE platforms given the enormous reduction still required. i.e. a Focus ST makes sense when you have an ICE Focus to base it on, but if a hot hatch would require an entirely new platform I can't see them wanting to shell out for it.
If they want to keep the exciting engines for the six-figure sports/luxury marques, then everything below that will have to be electric.
And for everyone without prestige stuff in their portfolio, you have to wonder if it actually makes sense for them to develop ICE platforms given the enormous reduction still required. i.e. a Focus ST makes sense when you have an ICE Focus to base it on, but if a hot hatch would require an entirely new platform I can't see them wanting to shell out for it.
If Porsche et al have to do some tricky carbon accounting to sell you a limited allocation petrol GT3 for which they've had to sell dozens of electric Macans, you can imagine that the GT3 price will be fairly eyewatering.
Taking BMW as an example (some rounding):
320i - 150g/km
330d - 150g/km
330e - 160g/km (WLTP) 40g/km ("real world")
M3 - 230g/km
BMW's current fleet average is 102g/km so they need to come down to 10g/km.
Even if everything goes hybrid and they get a favourable recalibration of the WLTP that seems like a huge ask for anything other than halo models like the M3.
Either they end up fitting such big batteries to cars they essentialy become BEVs with a range extender, or they (if we're lucky) replace those six pot hybrids with three pot hybrids and I can't see anyone other than the most die-hard petrol heads getting romantic about the idea of a 1.5L 2 tonne 3 series.
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