How reliable could modern cars be?
Discussion
It seems to be a common belief that peak reliability was attained in the 00's, with the subsequent downfall blamed mostly on increased emission regulations.
If the engineers had complete free reign with no emission requirements and only had to comply with safety regulations from the 00's, what do you think they could achieve?
If the engineers had complete free reign with no emission requirements and only had to comply with safety regulations from the 00's, what do you think they could achieve?
Tim Cognito said:
It seems to be a common belief that peak reliability was attained in the 00's, with the subsequent downfall blamed mostly on increased emission regulations.
If the engineers had complete free reign with no emission requirements and only had to comply with safety regulations from the 00's, what do you think they could achieve?
If they had free reign, they could do whatever they wanted. If the engineers had complete free reign with no emission requirements and only had to comply with safety regulations from the 00's, what do you think they could achieve?
If they had free rein, they'd make cars more-or-less as reliable as they were at the time. Electronics make cars better able to diagnose, and potentially fix issues but electronics are also, increasingly, the point of failure.
Sebring440 said:
Tim Cognito said:
It seems to be a common belief that peak reliability was attained in the 00's,
Never heard that before. Source?I had a look and was able to find some data.
If you are defining reliability as avoiding breakdowns, as opposed to requiring maintenance, then we have a good source of data in the form of ADAC, essentially the German equivalent of the RAC/AA. Each year they publish data on the number of breakdowns per 1000 cars they cover for each make and model, broken down by year of manufacture.
The data for 2005 can be found here:
https://www.autosieger.de/images/articles/adac_pan...
And for 2025
https://www.adac.de/rund-ums-fahrzeug/unfall-schad...
If you look at the data for cars made in 2020 to 2022, vs cars made in 2000 to 2003, the modern cars are actually less likely to break down. Regardless of internet gossip, at least in terms of breakdowns requiring roadside assistance, peak reliability wasn't in the early 00s, it is right now. I will, however, concede that modern cars probably require more expensive maintenance in order to achieve that. So it depends what we are calling "reliability"
As for your initial question, how reliable could engineers make a car? If they didn't have to compromise on anything like cost, usability or mass production, they could make it go as long as you wanted. The world is full of specialist machinery that runs for decades with no breakdowns and virtually no maintainance.
If you are defining reliability as avoiding breakdowns, as opposed to requiring maintenance, then we have a good source of data in the form of ADAC, essentially the German equivalent of the RAC/AA. Each year they publish data on the number of breakdowns per 1000 cars they cover for each make and model, broken down by year of manufacture.
The data for 2005 can be found here:
https://www.autosieger.de/images/articles/adac_pan...
And for 2025
https://www.adac.de/rund-ums-fahrzeug/unfall-schad...
If you look at the data for cars made in 2020 to 2022, vs cars made in 2000 to 2003, the modern cars are actually less likely to break down. Regardless of internet gossip, at least in terms of breakdowns requiring roadside assistance, peak reliability wasn't in the early 00s, it is right now. I will, however, concede that modern cars probably require more expensive maintenance in order to achieve that. So it depends what we are calling "reliability"
As for your initial question, how reliable could engineers make a car? If they didn't have to compromise on anything like cost, usability or mass production, they could make it go as long as you wanted. The world is full of specialist machinery that runs for decades with no breakdowns and virtually no maintainance.
Edited by ajm_ph on Friday 26th December 22:02
I've had my 2015 BMW 428i since July 2021. Sure I've spent on tyres, maintenance etc but the only failure I've had in four and a half years is a faulty headlight level sensor. It has never failed to proceed, never left me stranded and always started and stopped when I've wanted it to. The part was £89. It's been the most reliable car I've had since a T-Reg Nissan Almera my parents gave me when i needed a car and they got offered £200 on trade in for it.
I dont think 2000s cars re more reliable than what we have now. I think EV will be a further leap in reliability as they contain significantly less mechanical parts.
I think 2000s are peak car. Modern enough to be reliable and useable. No canbus or BCM which means most can be fixed with basic hand tools and a cheap code reader.
In regards to how reliable it’s possible to make something. As I often get asked this in my line of work ai generally reply with the following.
A mechanical system will never bee 100% reliable. But you can get to 99.9%. The problem is you would never sell any. The costs would be horrific. It would be 3x the size as you need to factor in redundancy ect.
It’s why planes cost millions and still fall out the sky. If they cost billions there'd be less falling out the sky but your flight would cost 10s of thousands and not £100.
I think 2000s are peak car. Modern enough to be reliable and useable. No canbus or BCM which means most can be fixed with basic hand tools and a cheap code reader.
In regards to how reliable it’s possible to make something. As I often get asked this in my line of work ai generally reply with the following.
A mechanical system will never bee 100% reliable. But you can get to 99.9%. The problem is you would never sell any. The costs would be horrific. It would be 3x the size as you need to factor in redundancy ect.
It’s why planes cost millions and still fall out the sky. If they cost billions there'd be less falling out the sky but your flight would cost 10s of thousands and not £100.
MissChief said:
I've had my 2015 BMW 428i since July 2021. Sure I've spent on tyres, maintenance etc but the only failure I've had in four and a half years is a faulty headlight level sensor. It has never failed to proceed, never left me stranded and always started and stopped when I've wanted it to. The part was £89. It's been the most reliable car I've had since a T-Reg Nissan Almera my parents gave me when i needed a car and they got offered £200 on trade in for it.
My business is actually very involved with BMW, so I know them well. Your 428i will have the N20 engine in it, now it’s not an inherently ‘unreliable’ engine, but it’s not a robust one either. Providing you don’t abuse them(let them warm up and cool down properly), service them regularly with the correct grade oil and maintain them well, they can be a reliable lump. The problem is that many don’t do this, most of the time it’s not even the fault of the owner as even those who have them serviced regularly are taking them to garages that don’t use the correct grade oil(LL04) which causes chain stretch and other issues.
If we look at an earlier engine like the M52, its worlds apart, they were a bigger N/A and less efficient engine, but they generally outlasted the rest of the car, they could be used and abused with little issue, hell you could drive them with no coolant and overheating for up to 10 minutes without blowing a headgasket.
The late ‘90s/early 00’s BMWs was a real peak, I always remember a good chat I had with a chap who was very high up in BMW EMEA a few years ago, BMW couldn’t afford to produce a car like the E39 now as it would just cost too much and today’s consumer wouldn’t pay for. Back then, they were producing over engineered cars for people who on average were forking out £40k+ of their own money. Today, they are producing cars that are being sold for £250+ a month, expectations are lower with little need to produce cars that have long term reliability. This isn’t just the fault of BMWs accountants though, much of it is due to ‘efficiency’ regulations, they’d love to use the M52 again, but EU regulations prohibit it.
On a separate note, I don’t think anything will ever beat the reliability of a 90’s Honda engine, those things were indestructible, I had a few of them in my teens and they were just something else.
My first when I was 17 was a ‘95 1.5 Civic, I completely abused that car, I thrashed it everywhere, never gave it an oil change(I just topped it up with oil if the low oil light came on) and it never missed a beat. It kept going strong after I sold it and it was only rust that killed the car off…….not the engine though, that ended up going into another friends classic Mini and went for many more years, hell it’s probably still going strong now
My first when I was 17 was a ‘95 1.5 Civic, I completely abused that car, I thrashed it everywhere, never gave it an oil change(I just topped it up with oil if the low oil light came on) and it never missed a beat. It kept going strong after I sold it and it was only rust that killed the car off…….not the engine though, that ended up going into another friends classic Mini and went for many more years, hell it’s probably still going strong now
Huntsman said:
Early Honda Jazz with manual gearbox never went wrong.
In reality with that car Honda got to a point where the risk of breakdown was not significant.
Just sold the mother in laws 2006 manual Jazz owned from new. The only issues it ever had was a sticky brake caliper and a leak through the rear hatchback solved with screwfix all weather sealant.In reality with that car Honda got to a point where the risk of breakdown was not significant.
Thats nearly 20 years, I feel our current mixed fleet combo of BMW F30 and F56 Minis will reach their zenith at a fast approaching decade old although touch wood no issues yet. I feel that's a decent run mind although expect the B58 to run on indefinitely.
My old Lexus IS200 has just fallen off the rader at 23 years old!
From what I can gather, engineering and rust protection has perpetually improved but the benefit has been eroded by ever more complicated tech introducing new forms of fragility.
My 1999 E36 BMW 318is was pretty much bulletproof. M44 engine, which was produced from 1996 onwards. Very reliable. Not too much tech. The car was rendered unaconomical to maintain by rust after 25 years but mechanically and electrically it was still impeccable.
Currently running an E87 BMW 120d which will be 21 years old in February. Again, bulletproof and also rust free, apart from the first signs on the subframe at the last MOT. I suspect a newer one with a DPF would tell a different story.
My 1999 E36 BMW 318is was pretty much bulletproof. M44 engine, which was produced from 1996 onwards. Very reliable. Not too much tech. The car was rendered unaconomical to maintain by rust after 25 years but mechanically and electrically it was still impeccable.
Currently running an E87 BMW 120d which will be 21 years old in February. Again, bulletproof and also rust free, apart from the first signs on the subframe at the last MOT. I suspect a newer one with a DPF would tell a different story.
I presume the thing is that when modern cars go wrong, dodgy parts supply and complexity means you might be in for rather the wait vs popping a new bit on and rolling away.
Someone I know had their brand new Audi Q something off the road for 3 months of the first 5 months of ownership.
And the prospect of running something current when it's 10-15 years old is looking like a major non starter to me.
Someone I know had their brand new Audi Q something off the road for 3 months of the first 5 months of ownership.
And the prospect of running something current when it's 10-15 years old is looking like a major non starter to me.
MitchT said:
From what I can gather, engineering and rust protection has perpetually improved but the benefit has been eroded by ever more complicated tech introducing new forms of fragility....
This is simply not true as the data provided by ajm_ph clearly shows...And as others have pointed out, EVs are going to improve things even more, with less moving parts.
I have a 2003 BMW and although it's not let me down in the 2 years I have had it, it does need a few things fixing.
S366 said:
MissChief said:
I've had my 2015 BMW 428i since July 2021. Sure I've spent on tyres, maintenance etc but the only failure I've had in four and a half years is a faulty headlight level sensor. It has never failed to proceed, never left me stranded and always started and stopped when I've wanted it to. The part was £89. It's been the most reliable car I've had since a T-Reg Nissan Almera my parents gave me when i needed a car and they got offered £200 on trade in for it.
My business is actually very involved with BMW, so I know them well. Your 428i will have the N20 engine in it, now it s not an inherently unreliable engine, but it s not a robust one either. Providing you don t abuse them(let them warm up and cool down properly), service them regularly with the correct grade oil and maintain them well, they can be a reliable lump. The problem is that many don t do this, most of the time it s not even the fault of the owner as even those who have them serviced regularly are taking them to garages that don t use the correct grade oil(LL04) which causes chain stretch and other issues.
If we look at an earlier engine like the M52, its worlds apart, they were a bigger N/A and less efficient engine, but they generally outlasted the rest of the car, they could be used and abused with little issue, hell you could drive them with no coolant and overheating for up to 10 minutes without blowing a headgasket.
The late 90s/early 00 s BMWs was a real peak, I always remember a good chat I had with a chap who was very high up in BMW EMEA a few years ago, BMW couldn t afford to produce a car like the E39 now as it would just cost too much and today s consumer wouldn t pay for. Back then, they were producing over engineered cars for people who on average were forking out £40k+ of their own money. Today, they are producing cars that are being sold for £250+ a month, expectations are lower with little need to produce cars that have long term reliability. This isn t just the fault of BMWs accountants though, much of it is due to efficiency regulations, they d love to use the M52 again, but EU regulations prohibit it.
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