World War III - is it happening?
Discussion
This is a bit of a thread opener which I’m conscious has a couple of parallel threads (Iran/zealots invasion of Israel) etc but in this particular case I’m more intrigued about the escalation of the conflict and the impact on world affairs.
We now have multiple regional countries exchanging missiles.
Right now transcontinental conflict is asymmetric (attacks on US and UK Jewish schools by Iranian agents) but I am intrigued how this possibly escalates (or not).
And then we have the shadow conflict, where states like Russia and China are effectively propping up the Iranian regime, and there is a wider ‘real’ conflict which isn’t gradually hardening up, with real likely escalation points in Taiwan for a wider expansion of conflict.
Remember WW1 and WW2 started as regional conflicts but it gradually escalated. Are we witnessing the same now?
We now have multiple regional countries exchanging missiles.
Right now transcontinental conflict is asymmetric (attacks on US and UK Jewish schools by Iranian agents) but I am intrigued how this possibly escalates (or not).
And then we have the shadow conflict, where states like Russia and China are effectively propping up the Iranian regime, and there is a wider ‘real’ conflict which isn’t gradually hardening up, with real likely escalation points in Taiwan for a wider expansion of conflict.
Remember WW1 and WW2 started as regional conflicts but it gradually escalated. Are we witnessing the same now?
I hope not.
But it doesn't take much imagination to forsee a situation where China takes back Taiwan, and Russia, Iran, China, DPRK unite.
Since the end of WW2 the US were happy to take the leading NATO role - Dollar hegemony and erosion of European (mostly British) military power was the aim. A bit rich to bemoan lack of European military capabilities now.
But it doesn't take much imagination to forsee a situation where China takes back Taiwan, and Russia, Iran, China, DPRK unite.
Since the end of WW2 the US were happy to take the leading NATO role - Dollar hegemony and erosion of European (mostly British) military power was the aim. A bit rich to bemoan lack of European military capabilities now.
There are many who think that WWIII started a while ago, except it's not a conventional war in the sense of what the previous two world wars looked like.
Even allowing for the logic of asymmetry, I'm not convinced that WWIII has already started, but I do think that the pieces have been falling into place and continue to do so with the US/Israel/Iran conflict having the potential to create a considerable domino effect.
Even allowing for the logic of asymmetry, I'm not convinced that WWIII has already started, but I do think that the pieces have been falling into place and continue to do so with the US/Israel/Iran conflict having the potential to create a considerable domino effect.
I still think an actual world war 3 breaking out is unlikely, but I will admit the current regional conflicts and wars have created global instability with all the foundations in place for the situation to escalate.
Pakistan have reignited their war against Afghanistan and the Thailand Cambodia conflict could flare up again. Currently there are wars/conflicts in Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia.
China invading Taiwan would really escalate the situation though IMO, and if the Communist dictators heavily back Iran then things look rather bleak. Particularly if they can maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Pakistan have reignited their war against Afghanistan and the Thailand Cambodia conflict could flare up again. Currently there are wars/conflicts in Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia.
China invading Taiwan would really escalate the situation though IMO, and if the Communist dictators heavily back Iran then things look rather bleak. Particularly if they can maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz.
trickywoo said:
If tanker traffic through Hormuz isn t normalised soon the Chinese will get involved and that s when things could potentially escalate dramatically.
Chinese involvement would surely be to phone up Iran and say 'Open up the Straits.'. In the unlikely event Iran said 'no' China would essentially be on America's/Our side.BikeBikeBIke said:
Chinese involvement would surely be to phone up Iran and say 'Open up the Straits.'. In the unlikely event Iran said 'no' China would essentially be on America's/Our side.
You don't think the Chinese would see it as a great opportunity to put a carrier group in there?BikeBikeBIke said:
trickywoo said:
If tanker traffic through Hormuz isn t normalised soon the Chinese will get involved and that s when things could potentially escalate dramatically.
Chinese involvement would surely be to phone up Iran and say 'Open up the Straits.'. In the unlikely event Iran said 'no' China would essentially be on America's/Our side.Terminator X said:
Social media / news scaremongering imho. Keep em scared etc just the next thing in a very long line of "scary stuff". Give it a few months and it will be something else equally as "sinister".
TX.
Not much mention of Iran this morning on LBC.TX.
Now we are all going to die of meningitis.
Awful about the 2 young people in Kent that have died, and I hope the others get better but.....
the press are acting as if Covid Mk1 is back.
Ridgemont said:
Remember WW1 and WW2 started as regional conflicts but it gradually escalated. Are we witnessing the same now?
WW1 started as a consequence of Arch Duke Ferdinand being assassinated.WW2 started as a consequence of Germany invading Poland (I hope I have got that right as I was quite young at the time.)
Would you describe those as regional conflicts?
trickywoo said:
BikeBikeBIke said:
Chinese involvement would surely be to phone up Iran and say 'Open up the Straits.'. In the unlikely event Iran said 'no' China would essentially be on America's/Our side.
You don't think the Chinese would see it as a great opportunity to put a carrier group in there?2. If America can't open the straits adversarial, what would make China think they can? Their navy is vastly more inexperienced than the US, for all the US Navy & Pentagon's faults.
3. Don't interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake. Currently the US are removing military strength from Taiwan & South Korea, and are not releasing weapons systems to "allies" to backfill what has been sent to Ukraine. Both of these are to China's strategic advantage & their long term goals. China showing overt military force in the Middle East is likely to put the wind up the US in AsiaPAC and would see the return of at least some of the US Military Strength to the Far East.
To the wider point of is this the start of WWIII, I think you have a number of regional conflicts that read like act 3 of a Clancy novel, but I think Europe's decision not to come to the party Trump started is a smart move. I think these regional conflicts will rumble on until the prize fighters involved run out of puff for the fight, but there will be a lot more blood to be spilt yet.
I do think that what we have seen is the fracturing of the post WWII global order & institutions and it will be a generation at least before something similar is in place. This does probably mean Israel wipes Palestine off the map, literally, and the US takes Cuba in the mean time.
The upside of the Iran conflict is, I think, that the US power brokers have seen though Trump and any idea he will get a third term in someway is for the birds, I just don't think the people behind Project 25 will stand for the economic consequences of his actions, and that's before the AI bubble bursts and / or mass unemployment caused by AI hits home economically. I also think European populations and politicians have realised just how dangerous the reliance on the US in NATO has been and we will likely see the restrengthening of European military powers, and a move away from reliance on US Tech. Just don't ask me how we pay for it.
China are everywhere these days. Back home their cities are pretty high tech and it's been an amazing vision to watch after having visited back in the early 80s when all I saw was mud, bicycles and tractors pulling trailers full of passengers.
These areas are now the cities of Shenzhen and Zhuhai.
They'd be utter fools to start a war as they have virtually colonized the world already.
These areas are now the cities of Shenzhen and Zhuhai.
They'd be utter fools to start a war as they have virtually colonized the world already.
The Mad Monk said:
Ridgemont said:
Remember WW1 and WW2 started as regional conflicts but it gradually escalated. Are we witnessing the same now?
WW1 started as a consequence of Arch Duke Ferdinand being assassinated.WW2 started as a consequence of Germany invading Poland (I hope I have got that right as I was quite young at the time.)
Would you describe those as regional conflicts?
1937 - Japan invades China
1938 - Germany annexes Austria and the Sudetenland
1939 - Germany annexes the rest of Czechoslovakia
There was also Japanese-Soviet border conflicts, and the Italian invasion of Ethiopia in the 1930's.
You could also argue the invasion of Poland started as just a regional conflict, at what point does it become a World War? The invasion of France? The invasion of the Soviet Union? Or is it only when the US joined that it became truely global?
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