EV depreciation, am I missing something?
Discussion
We have a six year old Model 3 Performance that we've owned for three years, paid £33k for it, and it's now worth £12,050 with 56,000 miles on the clock.
We bought it outright from savings and I've been paying myself back monthly ever since. Five months left and it's done.
For a while I've been telling myself to just stick it out, we'll own it soon, keep saving the payments, job done. That was until I started properly tracking the WBAC valuations.
Over the last six months it's lost an average of £560 per month (£580 over the last three years). On a six year old car. That's more than my monthly repayment.
The maths is pretty stark. Even once it's paid off and I'm saving £500 a month, the depreciation is likely still going to be £300/400+ per month. I'd essentially be treading water.
To be fair, when I look at total cost of ownership over three years, depreciation, fuel, servicing, it comes out roughly on par with the M340i I also considered at the time. So it's not a disaster in absolute terms. But the depreciation alone is staggering for a car of this age.
And it's not just the Tesla. I looked at a two year old Ioniq 6 Ultimate, £50k new, WBAC offering £19k at two years old. That's over £1,300 per month in depreciation. I thinks a new example, but I'm not confident that the curve will flatten from year two to year five.
I've made my decision, I'm getting rid of it. But the conclusion I keep arriving at is that the only way to escape this level of depreciation is to go back to ICE and accept higher fuel costs instead. Which feels like a backwards step, but the numbers don't lie. It seems the choice is higher depreciation + lower running costs = less equity at the end vs lower depreciation + higher running costs = more equity at the end. The EV route only seems to work if you physically save the difference in running costs in the bank, but I used the savings to pay for the car in less time.
Has anyone found an EV that actually holds its value at this point, or is this just the market we're in right now?
We bought it outright from savings and I've been paying myself back monthly ever since. Five months left and it's done.
For a while I've been telling myself to just stick it out, we'll own it soon, keep saving the payments, job done. That was until I started properly tracking the WBAC valuations.
Over the last six months it's lost an average of £560 per month (£580 over the last three years). On a six year old car. That's more than my monthly repayment.
The maths is pretty stark. Even once it's paid off and I'm saving £500 a month, the depreciation is likely still going to be £300/400+ per month. I'd essentially be treading water.
To be fair, when I look at total cost of ownership over three years, depreciation, fuel, servicing, it comes out roughly on par with the M340i I also considered at the time. So it's not a disaster in absolute terms. But the depreciation alone is staggering for a car of this age.
And it's not just the Tesla. I looked at a two year old Ioniq 6 Ultimate, £50k new, WBAC offering £19k at two years old. That's over £1,300 per month in depreciation. I thinks a new example, but I'm not confident that the curve will flatten from year two to year five.
I've made my decision, I'm getting rid of it. But the conclusion I keep arriving at is that the only way to escape this level of depreciation is to go back to ICE and accept higher fuel costs instead. Which feels like a backwards step, but the numbers don't lie. It seems the choice is higher depreciation + lower running costs = less equity at the end vs lower depreciation + higher running costs = more equity at the end. The EV route only seems to work if you physically save the difference in running costs in the bank, but I used the savings to pay for the car in less time.
Has anyone found an EV that actually holds its value at this point, or is this just the market we're in right now?
I know someone who bought a Tesla, not sure which model, new in 2018 for around £125k. He just bought a new Tesla & only got £16k trade in!!!!
Over £100k/90% over 8 years seems ridiculous to me. Then there's the insurance which I understand was way more than for ICE, & eye watering tyre costs....
Over £100k/90% over 8 years seems ridiculous to me. Then there's the insurance which I understand was way more than for ICE, & eye watering tyre costs....
TheBinarySheep said:
We have a six year old Model 3 Performance that we've owned for three years, paid £33k for it, and it's now worth £12,050 with 56,000 miles on the clock.
We bought it outright from savings and I've been paying myself back monthly ever since. Five months left and it's done.
It doesn't matter which car you buy the first few years always has savage deprication. If you owe it outright what's the rationale for selling? We bought it outright from savings and I've been paying myself back monthly ever since. Five months left and it's done.
Ours is 9 years old this year, yes there is still deprication but it's essentially flattened. Swapping our now for any new car is essentially going back to the start of the cycle.
I'm going to just keeps our as long as it'll keep on running.
Depreciation relative to 'list price' tends to be coloured by list price being a work of fiction.
Some depreciation is a 'step function' as a car leaves the forecourt.
That's perhaps more usefully considered as the trade's buy/sell spread.
Nearly all cars depreciate a lot.
From expensive when new, through 'quite expensive' when a few years old through to nearly worthless at 10/15/20 years old.
EVs are a bit of a special case, because their new prices have fallen, and they've gone from being rare and expensive to being fairly freely available used.
So the past few years may not be the future pattern?
There is also the matter of incentives, encouraging people to buy new ones, which may help depress the value of used ones?
Also in the scheme of things, petrol has been pretty cheap over the last few years compared to 4 years ago? That may change?
When diesel was touching £2 a litre, I started to consider my car expensive to run. Now in real terms £1.45 a litre was not painful.
There's also the fact that a car in warranty is a fundamentally more valuable thing than a car with no warranty.
A lot of ordinary people understand the value in paying x-amount a month for motoring with limited risk.
Then there is perhaps a factor that a Tesla is now only slightly more fashionable than an Austin Montego.
It's a brand and image from a past decade. The rest of the world has caught up, Tesla is just white goods taxis made in China now.
A few years ago, I had a little theory that eVs would depreciate differently from IC cars.
While IC cars tend to lose money exponentially until they are worth £500 with 6 months MOT, I thought EVs would have a plateau in value, anything capable of fulfilling basic needs as a city runaboout would always be worth the £2000 it could save someone in petrol.
Until suddenly it was worth more to be recycled.
Not sure how that's going, some autumnal leaves are under £2k now, but you can see the range dropping off.
Some depreciation is a 'step function' as a car leaves the forecourt.
That's perhaps more usefully considered as the trade's buy/sell spread.
Nearly all cars depreciate a lot.
From expensive when new, through 'quite expensive' when a few years old through to nearly worthless at 10/15/20 years old.
EVs are a bit of a special case, because their new prices have fallen, and they've gone from being rare and expensive to being fairly freely available used.
So the past few years may not be the future pattern?
There is also the matter of incentives, encouraging people to buy new ones, which may help depress the value of used ones?
Also in the scheme of things, petrol has been pretty cheap over the last few years compared to 4 years ago? That may change?
When diesel was touching £2 a litre, I started to consider my car expensive to run. Now in real terms £1.45 a litre was not painful.
There's also the fact that a car in warranty is a fundamentally more valuable thing than a car with no warranty.
A lot of ordinary people understand the value in paying x-amount a month for motoring with limited risk.
Then there is perhaps a factor that a Tesla is now only slightly more fashionable than an Austin Montego.
It's a brand and image from a past decade. The rest of the world has caught up, Tesla is just white goods taxis made in China now.
A few years ago, I had a little theory that eVs would depreciate differently from IC cars.
While IC cars tend to lose money exponentially until they are worth £500 with 6 months MOT, I thought EVs would have a plateau in value, anything capable of fulfilling basic needs as a city runaboout would always be worth the £2000 it could save someone in petrol.
Until suddenly it was worth more to be recycled.
Not sure how that's going, some autumnal leaves are under £2k now, but you can see the range dropping off.
gangzoom said:
If you owe it outright what's the rationale for selling?
[Img]https://cms.webuyanycar.com/globalassets/images/1-series.png[/thumb]
Owning it outright doesn't stop it depreciating. If the car is losing £560 a month in value, and I can only save £500 a month once payments stop, I'm going backwards in real terms regardless of whether there's finance on it or not.[Img]https://cms.webuyanycar.com/globalassets/images/1-series.png[/thumb]
Historically, I've bought cars at 2-3 year old, financed them over 5 years, and changed at around 3 years when I have some equity. There's always the same pattern, high depreciation initially which slows down as the car ages. In the case of our Tesla, the depreciation isn't slowing as much as I'm used to.
I could keep the car, but I'd be driving a six year old car, no doubt have to start spending money on it to keep it going and all while it's losing a stupid amount of it's value every month.
MediumBuild said:
You re not going to find a 6 year old car with that level of performance for £12k so what s the driver for selling if it s still doing the job?
A few things. I'm bored with it. Lost interest. I've driven vans with less rattles and knocks. It's getting to that age where I think it's going to start to need some money ploughing into it to. i.e. door cards or worn, leather coming off the steering wheel, suspension feel's loose (spent £1000 replacing all of the control arms only 13 month ago as well).Is right now the time to be going from EV to
ICE? I’d be waiting for the ketfuffle in the Middle East to play out before making a decision.
EVs are a different beast in the used market - particularly once the manufacturers warranty has expired. Limited availability of low-cost / non-dealer maintenance, and the uncertainty of owning new(ish) technology as it ages drives buyers towards the known risks of used ICE cars. Added to that, buyers on a budget are less likely to be able to charge at home.
But you have answered your own question - “why does nobody want to pay a high price for the car that I want to unload due to its high depreciation and the perceived risk of upcoming bills?”
ICE? I’d be waiting for the ketfuffle in the Middle East to play out before making a decision.
EVs are a different beast in the used market - particularly once the manufacturers warranty has expired. Limited availability of low-cost / non-dealer maintenance, and the uncertainty of owning new(ish) technology as it ages drives buyers towards the known risks of used ICE cars. Added to that, buyers on a budget are less likely to be able to charge at home.
But you have answered your own question - “why does nobody want to pay a high price for the car that I want to unload due to its high depreciation and the perceived risk of upcoming bills?”
MediumBuild said:
Just picked from a car for sale - 2020 M3P with 61k showing.
Motorway valuing it at a fair bit more and on an upwards trajectory with an overall loss of £909 over the last 6 months.
and almost static over the last 3
Interesting. Motorway valuing it at a fair bit more and on an upwards trajectory with an overall loss of £909 over the last 6 months.
and almost static over the last 3
The price I got from WBAC in September 2025 was £15,500. January 2026 it was £14,850, February £13,420, and March £12,090.
According to Motorway, they've estimated it's value at £15,575. That a massive difference vs WBAC. I wonder how likely is it you get near that price when you come to sell.
I've also tried Cinch and Arnold Clark, both coming in around £13,750. So the average across all valuations is £13,828. So whilst not as bad as I was expecting, the depreciation over the last 6 month based on the Motorway valuations is still £420 a month, which still feels like a lot for a 6 year old car.
Edited by TheBinarySheep on Saturday 21st March 16:46
TheBinarySheep said:
Interesting.
The price I got from WBAC in September 2025 was £15,500. January 2026 it was £14,850, February £13,420, and March £12,090.
According to Motorway, they've estimated it's value at £15,575. That a massive difference vs WBAC. I wonder how likely is it you get near that price when you come to sell.
I guess much will depend on the condition of yours. I used Motorway for my old M2 and the dealer gave me what the valuation was (also £2730 more than WBAC - remember they are sold into auction by BCA so you're selling to them at the opening auction price but they work because it's easy and they'll usually try and get you down when you get there anyway). I appreciate that an M2 appeals to a certain dealer after that type of car and prices are solid on those now. Might be worth seeing what someone like RSymons would value yours at.The price I got from WBAC in September 2025 was £15,500. January 2026 it was £14,850, February £13,420, and March £12,090.
According to Motorway, they've estimated it's value at £15,575. That a massive difference vs WBAC. I wonder how likely is it you get near that price when you come to sell.
Edited by TheBinarySheep on Saturday 21st March 16:37
FWIW I had to spend close to a grand on control arms and bushes on my 340i which was only showing 29k at the time.
TheBinarySheep said:
Interesting.
The price I got from WBAC in September 2025 was £15,500. January 2026 it was £14,850, February £13,420, and March £12,090.
According to Motorway, they've estimated it's value at £15,575. That a massive difference vs WBAC. I wonder how likely is it you get near that price when you come to sell.
I've also tried Cinch and Arnold Clark, both coming in around £13,750. So the average across all valuations is £13,828. So whilst not as bad as I was expecting, the depreciation over the last 6 month based on the Motorway valuations is still £420 a month, which still feels like a lot for a 6 year old car.
I've sold two cars through Motorway and both got or exceeded (by £500) the value quoted. The value quoted was £2-£4k more than anywhere else would offer too. As long as you are upfront about any damage and dings there is no reason for them to knock you down. I would definitely use them again.The price I got from WBAC in September 2025 was £15,500. January 2026 it was £14,850, February £13,420, and March £12,090.
According to Motorway, they've estimated it's value at £15,575. That a massive difference vs WBAC. I wonder how likely is it you get near that price when you come to sell.
I've also tried Cinch and Arnold Clark, both coming in around £13,750. So the average across all valuations is £13,828. So whilst not as bad as I was expecting, the depreciation over the last 6 month based on the Motorway valuations is still £420 a month, which still feels like a lot for a 6 year old car.
Edited by TheBinarySheep on Saturday 21st March 16:46
From the other side I bought a C63 estate in August last year from a dealer and he said they buy all of thier cars through Motorway. They said they get better quality stock and are able to view the car and speak with the owner to get a good feeling on the car too. For them they said it's worth paying the premium to reduce the risk of a trouble car coming back to you down the line.
I'm still very surprised at how much the Tesla has depreciated in that time. Yes all cars lose a fair chunk and currently EV's even more so, but I would have thought you buying in when you did would have saved a good bit of that pain. I actually have a Renault 5 arriving imminently. It should have been this Monday but delays at the port have pushed it back. That will be cheap enough that even with some fairly heavy depreciation I will more than save this through petrol savings (20k per year) and my car allowance covers almost the whole cost too. Free car with some man maths...
TheBinarySheep said:
A few things. I'm bored with it. Lost interest. I've driven vans with less rattles and knocks. It's getting to that age where I think it's going to start to need some money ploughing into it to. i.e. door cards or worn, leather coming off the steering wheel, suspension feel's loose (spent £1000 replacing all of the control arms only 13 month ago as well).
Sounds like your are using man maths to justify an unnecessary change. Unless you really see something that adds something different, keeping the Model 3 is by far the most sensible thing to do. For bordem I'm not sure any new EV will offer anything that different
Useful to share, all cars have price floors where the ropiest ones set the limit, any good Tesla less than 100k miles in 10k plus in classified. So if you can hold onto it you have very cheap motoring now. With perceived hard sell motorway etc build in a fair margin I'd assume
My tuppence is EVs are still newish so new no-one is sure what the future depreciation graph looks like, there is oversupply but if you have a battery soh say above 85% that's a lot of car for the money that could give another 5+ years motoring with 200+ miles range
I'm looking at 3 yr EVs in the 20-25k bracket, half new price so if I get 4 years and 8-10k back then I'm happy. ICE more predictable but still depreciate!
My tuppence is EVs are still newish so new no-one is sure what the future depreciation graph looks like, there is oversupply but if you have a battery soh say above 85% that's a lot of car for the money that could give another 5+ years motoring with 200+ miles range
I'm looking at 3 yr EVs in the 20-25k bracket, half new price so if I get 4 years and 8-10k back then I'm happy. ICE more predictable but still depreciate!
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