EV Tipping point
Discussion
So when will the stock of cars in the UK be more EV than ICE?
Not new stuff in showrooms but registered vehicles in the UK as a whole.
Depending on how you classify hybrid vehicles may skew the figures.
Not a dig at ICE or EV just wondering.
I’m thinking as range and charging capacity increase with advances in technology an EV will be the practical choice.
Not new stuff in showrooms but registered vehicles in the UK as a whole.
Depending on how you classify hybrid vehicles may skew the figures.
Not a dig at ICE or EV just wondering.
I’m thinking as range and charging capacity increase with advances in technology an EV will be the practical choice.
mobile chicane22 said:
So when will the stock of cars in the UK be more EV than ICE?
Not new stuff in showrooms but registered vehicles in the UK as a whole.
Depending on how you classify hybrid vehicles may skew the figures.
Not a dig at ICE or EV just wondering.
I m thinking as range and charging capacity increase with advances in technology an EV will be the practical choice.
Good current data point: EVs are around one in 22 of all cars on the road in the UK right now, so the parc is still overwhelmingly ICE/hybrid. Just over two million EVs are currently registered on UK roads, which is a small slice of the ~35m+ car parc.Not new stuff in showrooms but registered vehicles in the UK as a whole.
Depending on how you classify hybrid vehicles may skew the figures.
Not a dig at ICE or EV just wondering.
I m thinking as range and charging capacity increase with advances in technology an EV will be the practical choice.
On the mandate point, you're broadly right about the direction of travel. The UK government has launched a review to potentially relax EV sales targets from 2027 onward, and the SMMT says BEVs are likely to reach only around 27.5% of the market this year, well short of the 33% target, with the shortfall being plugged by heavy discounting and fiscal support that's hurting manufacturer margins and residual values.
The targets have been missed every year so far and the gap keeps widening rather than closing, so relaxation isn't really in doubt at this point, it's more a question of by how much. The endpoint (2030 phase-out of new pure ICE, 2035 zero-emissions deadline) is still nominally in place, but the annual percentages that were meant to get there are proving unrealistic given real-world demand, so expect them to keep getting watered down.
Worth noting this isn't a UK-only story. The EU has already softened its own CO2 targets, giving manufacturers a three-year averaging window (2025-2027) instead of hard annual targets after industry warned of billions in fines. The US has gone much further in the other direction: the federal EV tax credit has been killed off, Biden-era tailpipe emissions standards are being unwound, and California's ability to set its own stricter rules has been revoked, so US policy is now actively unfavourable to EVs rather than just softening a push. Given that backdrop, it's not hard to imagine a future UK government further right than the current one, Reform being the obvious example, going down a similar road to the US and scrapping the ZEV mandate altogether rather than just easing it.
On your actual question, stock crossing 50% EV: at ~1-in-22 today and a car parc that turns over slowly (average car on UK roads is around 8-9 years old), even a fairly aggressive sales mix wouldn't flip the total registered fleet to majority-EV until well into the 2050s, and later still if targets keep getting eased.
Ch0nky said:
Good current data point: EVs are around one in 22 of all cars on the road in the UK right now, so the parc is still overwhelmingly ICE/hybrid. Just over two million EVs are currently registered on UK roads, which is a small slice of the ~35m+ car parc.
On the mandate point, you're broadly right about the direction of travel. The UK government has launched a review to potentially relax EV sales targets from 2027 onward, and the SMMT says BEVs are likely to reach only around 27.5% of the market this year, well short of the 33% target, with the shortfall being plugged by heavy discounting and fiscal support that's hurting manufacturer margins and residual values.
The targets have been missed every year so far and the gap keeps widening rather than closing, so relaxation isn't really in doubt at this point, it's more a question of by how much. The endpoint (2030 phase-out of new pure ICE, 2035 zero-emissions deadline) is still nominally in place, but the annual percentages that were meant to get there are proving unrealistic given real-world demand, so expect them to keep getting watered down.
Worth noting this isn't a UK-only story. The EU has already softened its own CO2 targets, giving manufacturers a three-year averaging window (2025-2027) instead of hard annual targets after industry warned of billions in fines. The US has gone much further in the other direction: the federal EV tax credit has been killed off, Biden-era tailpipe emissions standards are being unwound, and California's ability to set its own stricter rules has been revoked, so US policy is now actively unfavourable to EVs rather than just softening a push. Given that backdrop, it's not hard to imagine a future UK government further right than the current one, Reform being the obvious example, going down a similar road to the US and scrapping the ZEV mandate altogether rather than just easing it.
On your actual question, stock crossing 50% EV: at ~1-in-22 today and a car parc that turns over slowly (average car on UK roads is around 8-9 years old), even a fairly aggressive sales mix wouldn't flip the total registered fleet to majority-EV until well into the 2050s, and later still if targets keep getting eased.
Thanks Claude.On the mandate point, you're broadly right about the direction of travel. The UK government has launched a review to potentially relax EV sales targets from 2027 onward, and the SMMT says BEVs are likely to reach only around 27.5% of the market this year, well short of the 33% target, with the shortfall being plugged by heavy discounting and fiscal support that's hurting manufacturer margins and residual values.
The targets have been missed every year so far and the gap keeps widening rather than closing, so relaxation isn't really in doubt at this point, it's more a question of by how much. The endpoint (2030 phase-out of new pure ICE, 2035 zero-emissions deadline) is still nominally in place, but the annual percentages that were meant to get there are proving unrealistic given real-world demand, so expect them to keep getting watered down.
Worth noting this isn't a UK-only story. The EU has already softened its own CO2 targets, giving manufacturers a three-year averaging window (2025-2027) instead of hard annual targets after industry warned of billions in fines. The US has gone much further in the other direction: the federal EV tax credit has been killed off, Biden-era tailpipe emissions standards are being unwound, and California's ability to set its own stricter rules has been revoked, so US policy is now actively unfavourable to EVs rather than just softening a push. Given that backdrop, it's not hard to imagine a future UK government further right than the current one, Reform being the obvious example, going down a similar road to the US and scrapping the ZEV mandate altogether rather than just easing it.
On your actual question, stock crossing 50% EV: at ~1-in-22 today and a car parc that turns over slowly (average car on UK roads is around 8-9 years old), even a fairly aggressive sales mix wouldn't flip the total registered fleet to majority-EV until well into the 2050s, and later still if targets keep getting eased.
king arthur said:
Ch0nky said:
Good current data point: EVs are around one in 22 of all cars on the road in the UK right now, so the parc is still overwhelmingly ICE/hybrid. Just over two million EVs are currently registered on UK roads, which is a small slice of the ~35m+ car parc.
On the mandate point, you're broadly right about the direction of travel. The UK government has launched a review to potentially relax EV sales targets from 2027 onward, and the SMMT says BEVs are likely to reach only around 27.5% of the market this year, well short of the 33% target, with the shortfall being plugged by heavy discounting and fiscal support that's hurting manufacturer margins and residual values.
The targets have been missed every year so far and the gap keeps widening rather than closing, so relaxation isn't really in doubt at this point, it's more a question of by how much. The endpoint (2030 phase-out of new pure ICE, 2035 zero-emissions deadline) is still nominally in place, but the annual percentages that were meant to get there are proving unrealistic given real-world demand, so expect them to keep getting watered down.
Worth noting this isn't a UK-only story. The EU has already softened its own CO2 targets, giving manufacturers a three-year averaging window (2025-2027) instead of hard annual targets after industry warned of billions in fines. The US has gone much further in the other direction: the federal EV tax credit has been killed off, Biden-era tailpipe emissions standards are being unwound, and California's ability to set its own stricter rules has been revoked, so US policy is now actively unfavourable to EVs rather than just softening a push. Given that backdrop, it's not hard to imagine a future UK government further right than the current one, Reform being the obvious example, going down a similar road to the US and scrapping the ZEV mandate altogether rather than just easing it.
On your actual question, stock crossing 50% EV: at ~1-in-22 today and a car parc that turns over slowly (average car on UK roads is around 8-9 years old), even a fairly aggressive sales mix wouldn't flip the total registered fleet to majority-EV until well into the 2050s, and later still if targets keep getting eased.
Thanks Claude.On the mandate point, you're broadly right about the direction of travel. The UK government has launched a review to potentially relax EV sales targets from 2027 onward, and the SMMT says BEVs are likely to reach only around 27.5% of the market this year, well short of the 33% target, with the shortfall being plugged by heavy discounting and fiscal support that's hurting manufacturer margins and residual values.
The targets have been missed every year so far and the gap keeps widening rather than closing, so relaxation isn't really in doubt at this point, it's more a question of by how much. The endpoint (2030 phase-out of new pure ICE, 2035 zero-emissions deadline) is still nominally in place, but the annual percentages that were meant to get there are proving unrealistic given real-world demand, so expect them to keep getting watered down.
Worth noting this isn't a UK-only story. The EU has already softened its own CO2 targets, giving manufacturers a three-year averaging window (2025-2027) instead of hard annual targets after industry warned of billions in fines. The US has gone much further in the other direction: the federal EV tax credit has been killed off, Biden-era tailpipe emissions standards are being unwound, and California's ability to set its own stricter rules has been revoked, so US policy is now actively unfavourable to EVs rather than just softening a push. Given that backdrop, it's not hard to imagine a future UK government further right than the current one, Reform being the obvious example, going down a similar road to the US and scrapping the ZEV mandate altogether rather than just easing it.
On your actual question, stock crossing 50% EV: at ~1-in-22 today and a car parc that turns over slowly (average car on UK roads is around 8-9 years old), even a fairly aggressive sales mix wouldn't flip the total registered fleet to majority-EV until well into the 2050s, and later still if targets keep getting eased.
Billy Eyelash said:
With Geely announcing the roll out of solid state batteries next year, and the corresponding increase in range, EV sales will begin to rise more rapidly. A potential future step change in EV technology is what put a lot of people off buying today, This may be it.
If I had a pound for every time I've heard that, I'd be reading this from my Chiron.Frimley111R said:
If I had a pound for every time I've heard that, I'd be reading this from my Chiron.
Millions of minds are going all out on this area. The prize is absolutely humongous. As for the original question, cars on the road are getting older, people are getting poorer.
I think we'll be surprised at how long it takes. It's going to be a while indeed.
If we are talking about them being more than 50% of the total population of cars I cant see that happening until the 2050s assuming current mandates are adhered to. If there is any softening of that then I think it could go even further beyond. Failing a draconian ban on non-electric cars I cant see it being any earlier. This is why I have always said that im not clear on why anyone born before 1975 is remotely bothered especially to the point where people get so stressed and upset. Many of us are already hanging on to cars longer because of the explosion of screens and nannying systems that I think, certainly in the PH age demographic, that will just increase until there is a forced hand.
craigjm said:
If we are talking about them being more than 50% of the total population of cars I cant see that happening until the 2050s assuming current mandates are adhered to. If there is any softening of that then I think it could go even further beyond. Failing a draconian ban on non-electric cars I cant see it being any earlier. This is why I have always said that im not clear on why anyone born before 1975 is remotely bothered especially to the point where people get so stressed and upset. Many of us are already hanging on to cars longer because of the explosion of screens and nannying systems that I think, certainly in the PH age demographic, that will just increase until there is a forced hand.
I had a banner pop up on PH advertising some cars, one of which was a 4 year old petrol Skoda Octavia 60something thousand miles for around £10k and thought that would make a good family car for someone. £10k with a part ex deposit would mean monthlies of £200-250 and with most people doing 6-8k a year, fuel isn't massive and you don't need a driveway for charging.
GT9 said:
Uncle boshy said:
Current expectations are somewhere between 2034 and 2036 for evs to hit 50% of cars in the road in the uk
This is more realistic that the earlier Reform-heavy newbie post 
t.vikingaero said:
I had a banner pop up on PH advertising some cars, one of which was a 4 year old petrol Skoda Octavia 60something thousand miles for around £10k and thought that would make a good family car for someone. £10k with a part ex deposit would mean monthlies of £200-250 and with most people doing 6-8k a year, fuel isn't massive and you don't need a driveway for charging.
Or, looking at it another way.... 6000 miles per year at 17p/mile (approx current prices) is just over £1k in fuel.
6000 miles in an electric at 4p/mile is £250.
So a saving of £750 and they don't even need to visit a fuel station to fill up.
Throughout history there is one common theme - economics always wins. To begin with the economics were complex as the upfront cost was higher, but if you have an ICE car and an EV at the same price point then the vast majority of people will go with the EV. The average car in the UK does 7000 miles per year, the average journey length is 6 miles. Range really isn't an issue for 99% of the people 99% of the time...
Condi said:
vikingaero said:
I had a banner pop up on PH advertising some cars, one of which was a 4 year old petrol Skoda Octavia 60something thousand miles for around £10k and thought that would make a good family car for someone. £10k with a part ex deposit would mean monthlies of £200-250 and with most people doing 6-8k a year, fuel isn't massive and you don't need a driveway for charging.
Or, looking at it another way.... 6000 miles per year at 17p/mile (approx current prices) is just over £1k in fuel.
6000 miles in an electric at 4p/mile is £250.
So a saving of £750 and they don't even need to visit a fuel station to fill up.
Throughout history there is one common theme - economics always wins. To begin with the economics were complex as the upfront cost was higher, but if you have an ICE car and an EV at the same price point then the vast majority of people will go with the EV. The average car in the UK does 7000 miles per year, the average journey length is 6 miles. Range really isn't an issue for 99% of the people 99% of the time...
Do you have a driveway to charge on?
Have you factored in £800-£1200 for an EV charger?
I'm not 100% sure of the price of a 4 year old EV, but I'm guessing on slightly to a lot more than the £10k Octavia.
vikingaero said:
And the killer is:
Do you have a driveway to charge on?
.
I have edited the post to quoteDo you have a driveway to charge on?
.
This is always going to be a big sticking point for he EV roll out, even IF everyone with a driveway suddenly swapped to EV ownership, the solution to those without still hasn't really been taken care of, without having to go to a fuel station anyway (which a lot of EV owners seem to suddenly have a big issue with despite using them for decades in many cases).
Anecdotally my neighbour has an EV (ID.3) as a company car and has a driveway but still doesn't have a home charger (maybe because the house is rented but I haven't asked) but he basically has to drive to a local leisure centre and walks back leaving his car on charge, he tells me regularly he doesn't like it but it forced onto him by his employer.
Edited by Jamescrs on Friday 21st August 14:11
Jamescrs said:
vikingaero said:
And the killer is:
Do you have a driveway to charge on?
.
I have edited the post to quoteDo you have a driveway to charge on?
.
This is always going to be a big sticking point for he EV roll out, even IF everyone with a driveway suddenly swapped to EV ownership, the solution to those without still hasn't really been taken care of, without having to go to a fuel station anyway (which a lot of EV owners seem to suddenly have a big issue with despite using them for decades in many cases).
Condi said:
vikingaero said:
I had a banner pop up on PH advertising some cars, one of which was a 4 year old petrol Skoda Octavia 60something thousand miles for around £10k and thought that would make a good family car for someone. £10k with a part ex deposit would mean monthlies of £200-250 and with most people doing 6-8k a year, fuel isn't massive and you don't need a driveway for charging.
Or, looking at it another way.... 6000 miles per year at 17p/mile (approx current prices) is just over £1k in fuel.
6000 miles in an electric at 4p/mile is £250.
So a saving of £750 and they don't even need to visit a fuel station to fill up.
Throughout history there is one common theme - economics always wins. To begin with the economics were complex as the upfront cost was higher, but if you have an ICE car and an EV at the same price point then the vast majority of people will go with the EV. The average car in the UK does 7000 miles per year, the average journey length is 6 miles. Range really isn't an issue for 99% of the people 99% of the time...
So you have those economic today, but that not winning. It's more 3 in 10 being forced in. Now air fryers are flying off the shelves with no help from government.
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