The good news about bird flu
Discussion
The good news about bird flu? There's a clue in the title - it's BIRD flu. Not human flu. What is happening is a pandemic in birds, and it will behave just as a human flu pandemic, and spread right around the world, possibly in a second and more intense wave next year, then disappear as the general bird population develops "herd" and individual immunity.
Unfortunately, as usual the media is determined to scare the public, by making the false assumption that because there have been a few deaths in poultry workers etc, that somehow there will be a miraculous transmutation of bird flu into an instant human flu pandemic. The link has been shortened from -
"Bird flu -> close and repeated contact with infected animals -> deaths in susceptible individuals -> No evidence of human to human transmission"
to
"Bird flu -> human pandemic with millions of dead"
There is a slight danger of the virus mutating to a form that can be transmitted between humans, but we are in a "between" year for human flu epidemics - Influenza B is rife at the moment, but in a strain that is causing colds and sniffles, with very little morbidity, and so it is unlikely that there will be a cross-pollination with H5N1. Still when did the media allow the facts to get in the way of a good story?
Unfortunately, as usual the media is determined to scare the public, by making the false assumption that because there have been a few deaths in poultry workers etc, that somehow there will be a miraculous transmutation of bird flu into an instant human flu pandemic. The link has been shortened from -
"Bird flu -> close and repeated contact with infected animals -> deaths in susceptible individuals -> No evidence of human to human transmission"
to
"Bird flu -> human pandemic with millions of dead"
There is a slight danger of the virus mutating to a form that can be transmitted between humans, but we are in a "between" year for human flu epidemics - Influenza B is rife at the moment, but in a strain that is causing colds and sniffles, with very little morbidity, and so it is unlikely that there will be a cross-pollination with H5N1. Still when did the media allow the facts to get in the way of a good story?
nubbin said:
The good news about bird flu? There's a clue in the title - it's BIRD flu. Not human flu. What is happening is a pandemic in birds, and it will behave just as a human flu pandemic, and spread right around the world, possibly in a second and more intense wave next year, then disappear as the general bird population develops "herd" and individual immunity.
Unfortunately, as usual the media is determined to scare the public, by making the false assumption that because there have been a few deaths in poultry workers etc, that somehow there will be a miraculous transmutation of bird flu into an instant human flu pandemic. The link has been shortened from -
"Bird flu -> close and repeated contact with infected animals -> deaths in susceptible individuals -> No evidence of human to human transmission"
to
"Bird flu -> human pandemic with millions of dead"
There is a slight danger of the virus mutating to a form that can be transmitted between humans, but we are in a "between" year for human flu epidemics - Influenza B is rife at the moment, but in a strain that is causing colds and sniffles, with very little morbidity, and so it is unlikely that there will be a cross-pollination with H5N1. Still when did the media allow the facts to get in the way of a good story?
nubbin. Errr, I was being tongue in cheak. I was merely alluding to the fact that as Defra was in charge it would all go swimmingly well (Remember Foot & Mouth? etc etc). As you were.
diddyman said:
Errr, I was being tongue in cheak. I was merely alluding to the fact that as Defra was in charge it would all go swimmingly well (Remember Foot & Mouth? etc etc). As you were.
I know - I just can't help myself sometimes - no-one listens to my ranting at home, so I have to let off steam somewhere
ultimasimon said:
So are you saying that there is not a large risk of humans getting infected?
At the moment we do not have bird flu in GB, but we may well get it too. The question is not will we catch it from humans, but what is the perecentage chance of catching it from infected animals in the UK?
None. It is an avian strain, and would need to mix with a human version, or mutate into a version capable of infecting humans, for us average Joes to catch it, and a sweeping pandemic to blast the country.
Having said that, the DoH contingency plan has a working assumption of a MINIMUM 50,000 deaths in the U.K. and up to 2 million should H5N1 cross the species divide
nubbin said:
Errr, I was being tongue in cheak. I was merely alluding to the fact that as Defra was in charge it would all go swimmingly well (Remember Foot & Mouth? etc etc). As you were.
I know - I just can't help myself sometimes - no-one listens to my ranting at home, so I have to let off steam somewhere
I'll let you of! Just don't do it again!
(In my house I am outnumbered 3:1 by wimmin. I NEVER get a word in edgeways. So I sympathise.)
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