I'm not a gambling man, but... (996 engine failures again)
Discussion
I'm not a gambling man but as someone who does not want high expenditure as a result of a major failure on my P&J I'm considering betting £895 with my OPC that my Yr2000 996 will fail in an expensive way.
The reason I am considering this is that it is suggested that by owning a 996 of a certain mileage I am exposing myself to heightened risk of failure in the following areas, all of which require a large cash injection (parts & labour) to put right - no news to you seasoned lot I know, especially those of you in the business dealling with these first hand:
- Cylinder Cracks
- Intermediate Shaft Failure
- Crankshaft Failure
Note I am not considering minor failures in the probability as relatively these are affordable, frequent and not necessarily what I want to safe-guard against with the warranty.
The question is will I cash in - is this a good bet, a 'sure-thing'?
Lets say there are 8,000 (seems like a good number) 996's sold every year from '98-'04 in the UK, giving 56,000 cars in total or 0.1% of the total number of cars in the UK (30M) as a passing, irrelevant but mildly interesting fact.
Of those, 25% (arbitrary, seems fair) have been written off or have had engine replacements leaving 42,000 cars (including 3.6 which I understand are likely to develop same issues as 3.4 as time goes on).
If all of those cars are doing 12k miles per year, then 18,000 cars are in the high-risk category this year along with mine (suggested by Baz Hartech in his doc 'Boxster and 996 Engine Rebuilds, Repairs or Replacements' - high risk as between 50-70k miles).
The question is what is the % chance I will cash in - how many of those 18,000 cars will fail this year?
Taking some arbitrary %'s and looking at what this means to the 33 OPCs in the UK:
(1) 20% - means the OPCs are dealing with 3600 failures, or 109 cars per dealership, 10 per month
(2) 10% - means they are dealing with 1800 cars, or 54 cars per dealership, 5 per month
(3) 5% - means 900 cars, or 25 cars per dealership, 3 per month
(4) 1% means 180 cars, or 6 cars for every dealership, 1 every 2 months
So what feels realistic to you?
It's (4) for me based on nothing but common sense that anything more in a year will give Porsche some unwanted attention and no doubt class actions that we would have heard about by now as the press and Clarkson got their teeth in.
So taking this very crude breakdown and what feels right to me there is a 1% chance of me cashing in on the OPC warranty in a big way - not a great incentive to part with my hard earned money.
So if you're still awake what do you think - do I have a point but way off the mark, do I need to resit my 11-Plus and get out more, do any of you have any better figures, or is the OPC Warranty as bad a bet as it looks to me given the chance of a major failure?
The reason I am considering this is that it is suggested that by owning a 996 of a certain mileage I am exposing myself to heightened risk of failure in the following areas, all of which require a large cash injection (parts & labour) to put right - no news to you seasoned lot I know, especially those of you in the business dealling with these first hand:
- Cylinder Cracks
- Intermediate Shaft Failure
- Crankshaft Failure
Note I am not considering minor failures in the probability as relatively these are affordable, frequent and not necessarily what I want to safe-guard against with the warranty.
The question is will I cash in - is this a good bet, a 'sure-thing'?
Lets say there are 8,000 (seems like a good number) 996's sold every year from '98-'04 in the UK, giving 56,000 cars in total or 0.1% of the total number of cars in the UK (30M) as a passing, irrelevant but mildly interesting fact.
Of those, 25% (arbitrary, seems fair) have been written off or have had engine replacements leaving 42,000 cars (including 3.6 which I understand are likely to develop same issues as 3.4 as time goes on).
If all of those cars are doing 12k miles per year, then 18,000 cars are in the high-risk category this year along with mine (suggested by Baz Hartech in his doc 'Boxster and 996 Engine Rebuilds, Repairs or Replacements' - high risk as between 50-70k miles).
The question is what is the % chance I will cash in - how many of those 18,000 cars will fail this year?
Taking some arbitrary %'s and looking at what this means to the 33 OPCs in the UK:
(1) 20% - means the OPCs are dealing with 3600 failures, or 109 cars per dealership, 10 per month
(2) 10% - means they are dealing with 1800 cars, or 54 cars per dealership, 5 per month
(3) 5% - means 900 cars, or 25 cars per dealership, 3 per month
(4) 1% means 180 cars, or 6 cars for every dealership, 1 every 2 months
So what feels realistic to you?
It's (4) for me based on nothing but common sense that anything more in a year will give Porsche some unwanted attention and no doubt class actions that we would have heard about by now as the press and Clarkson got their teeth in.
So taking this very crude breakdown and what feels right to me there is a 1% chance of me cashing in on the OPC warranty in a big way - not a great incentive to part with my hard earned money.
So if you're still awake what do you think - do I have a point but way off the mark, do I need to resit my 11-Plus and get out more, do any of you have any better figures, or is the OPC Warranty as bad a bet as it looks to me given the chance of a major failure?
Edited by tracer.smart on Monday 19th February 20:03
Blimey mate do you sleep at night?
You sound like you may fill your pants if a mouse farts near your car and you confuse that with a blown head gasket.
Get the cover its 17 pounds a week! Give something else up..like horlicks or hot chocolate;
Peace of mind the great chiller outer..unless your a tight git in that case sell the car and get a push bike.
You sound like you may fill your pants if a mouse farts near your car and you confuse that with a blown head gasket.
Get the cover its 17 pounds a week! Give something else up..like horlicks or hot chocolate;
Peace of mind the great chiller outer..unless your a tight git in that case sell the car and get a push bike.
HONEYMON57ER said:
Don't forget that the cover will not be only
for that problem and there are many other
admitedley less expensive things that could
go wrong in any given year so this somewhat
lessens your gamble.
Yep, you could easily shell out a couple of grand on other failures that are not related to the engine. Also, remember that the warranty cost includes a recovery service, something you wou;d pay £100 to £200 for if it were a standalone policy.
it would be a no brainer for me.
pp
997gt3 said:
PP - so what are your thoughts on extending the warranty on a 997GT3 after year 2? Could anything seriously go wrong with a 2 - 3 year old car with say 10000 miles on it?
Sorry, I know nothing about 997GT3s other than I would love one. From a purely financial/risk point of view I would personally extend the warranty for as long as I could. It doesn't take many hours at an OPC at £100 plus per hour to recover the warranty cost.
pp
tracer-smart said:
do I need to get out more ?
As others have said, engine faults aren't the only possible issues that could afflict a 996.
A search on here will reveal other well known problems and in many instances the costs involved.
Two spring to mind straight away; split header tanks and leaking radiators.
Radiator replacement can cost ITRO £1000 ( obviously depending on how many are replaced)
I willingly admit to being deeply cynical of the Porsche warranty and what it covers, but to consider buying a car with known fundamental faults, when you can mitigate against a large financial loss by purchasing a warranty off the manufacturer (even when the previous warranty period has lapsed), would be pure folly IMO.
Just for the record my BMW warranty costs £600 PA for a car with very few known faults (and I have to pay £100 excess every time I claim against it)
On that basis I think the Porsche warranty is cheap in comparison.
Porsche make money out of the warranty, so therefore they spend less in payouts (and breakdown cover premium) per car covered than they charge for it.
If you intend to keep your car long term (and can afford to fund an unexpected large expense at short notice should one arise) then you should be better off covering the risk yourself. Long term you will only pick up the cost of the repairs (which you can also reduce by using a trusted independent) and not Porsche's profit on the warranty cover.
That said, it is very competitively priced. For example a BMW warranty renewal on a 60,000 mile plus M5 is £1,868 and there is an excess to pay with every claim.
The price of an OPC warranty went up on 1st November 2006 from £725 to £895 as they presumably have had to pay more out recently and the new fee reflects the risk better (could be they're just out to make more money though). Even so, given the labour rates concerned the cars must be pretty reliable that the cover can be provided at a profit for such a low price. Must be the cars aren't as susceptible to breakdown as everyone thinks. Either that or Porsche are being un-characteristically benevolent with the warranty price and are subsidising it..........
If you intend to keep your car long term (and can afford to fund an unexpected large expense at short notice should one arise) then you should be better off covering the risk yourself. Long term you will only pick up the cost of the repairs (which you can also reduce by using a trusted independent) and not Porsche's profit on the warranty cover.
That said, it is very competitively priced. For example a BMW warranty renewal on a 60,000 mile plus M5 is £1,868 and there is an excess to pay with every claim.
The price of an OPC warranty went up on 1st November 2006 from £725 to £895 as they presumably have had to pay more out recently and the new fee reflects the risk better (could be they're just out to make more money though). Even so, given the labour rates concerned the cars must be pretty reliable that the cover can be provided at a profit for such a low price. Must be the cars aren't as susceptible to breakdown as everyone thinks. Either that or Porsche are being un-characteristically benevolent with the warranty price and are subsidising it..........
Thanks guys - very much appreciate your responses, and sorry for trotting out this tired subject when so much has been discussed on other postings.
Yes I agree the cost is low when considered as a daily rate (but you pay £1051 INC vat upfront for all of it)
Yes I can see the value of the warranty to cover minor failures (though most of the common minor faults I have rectified already using the services of Camtune including replaced both front radiators)
Yes the Recovery/Assist service sounds good (but I have AA cover as part of my banking package for all Europe)
Yes in comparison the warranty is cheaper to other manufacturers and Porsche are probably subsidising
And yes I don't like to spend money on intangible 'peace of mind' but many do
So, what I can take from the discussion so far is that most who have the warranty and have responded have made a claim and benefitted from it, and as my assumption that the chances of me needing to claim on the major failure I want to protect against has not been challenged, it remains low.
So what does the warranty cover:
(1) INCLUDED
- Porsche Assist
- Labour and parts
- Any failure not resulting from misuse
(2) EXCLUDED
- Failure due to misuse
(3) OTHER CONSIDERATIONS
- Tied to expensive OPC servicing
- Porsche do not have a reputation for using misuse as a get-out clause (true?)
Anything else?
Yes I agree the cost is low when considered as a daily rate (but you pay £1051 INC vat upfront for all of it)
Yes I can see the value of the warranty to cover minor failures (though most of the common minor faults I have rectified already using the services of Camtune including replaced both front radiators)
Yes the Recovery/Assist service sounds good (but I have AA cover as part of my banking package for all Europe)
Yes in comparison the warranty is cheaper to other manufacturers and Porsche are probably subsidising
And yes I don't like to spend money on intangible 'peace of mind' but many do
So, what I can take from the discussion so far is that most who have the warranty and have responded have made a claim and benefitted from it, and as my assumption that the chances of me needing to claim on the major failure I want to protect against has not been challenged, it remains low.
So what does the warranty cover:
(1) INCLUDED
- Porsche Assist
- Labour and parts
- Any failure not resulting from misuse
(2) EXCLUDED
- Failure due to misuse
(3) OTHER CONSIDERATIONS
- Tied to expensive OPC servicing
- Porsche do not have a reputation for using misuse as a get-out clause (true?)
Anything else?
Edited by tracer.smart on Tuesday 20th February 10:56
[quote=thegoose]Porsche make money out of the warranty, so therefore they spend less in payouts (and breakdown cover premium) per car covered than they charge for it.
If you intend to keep your car long term (and can afford to fund an unexpected large expense at short notice should one arise) then you should be better off covering the risk yourself. Long term you will only pick up the cost of the repairs (which you can also reduce by using a trusted independent) and not Porsche's profit on the warranty cover.
[quote]
I agree that since Porsche make money out of it, on the balance of probabilites, you will not get your money back on a warranty. However, I think it is important that you try and prescibe some sort of value to (at the least) the peace of mind that it brings. In addition, the Porsche assist has proven very useful on several occasions.
All this factored in, for me, it's definitely worth it.
If you intend to keep your car long term (and can afford to fund an unexpected large expense at short notice should one arise) then you should be better off covering the risk yourself. Long term you will only pick up the cost of the repairs (which you can also reduce by using a trusted independent) and not Porsche's profit on the warranty cover.
[quote]
I agree that since Porsche make money out of it, on the balance of probabilites, you will not get your money back on a warranty. However, I think it is important that you try and prescibe some sort of value to (at the least) the peace of mind that it brings. In addition, the Porsche assist has proven very useful on several occasions.
All this factored in, for me, it's definitely worth it.
tracer.smart said:
(3) OTHER CONSIDERATIONS
- Tied to expensive OPC servicing
untrue, as long as the serviced items are genuine parts you can go to a indy without problems.
tracer.smart said:
- Porsche do not have a reputation for using misuse as a get-out clause (true?)
errmmm, not sure thats entirely true,
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