The end of the big SUV and Truck is nigh
Discussion
A US Court ruled last week that the Environmental protection Agency (EPA) must set emission laws for light trucks (like the Ford F-150) and SUVs. The State of Massachusetts had taken the EPA to court over the issue. Previously, the EPA had argued that it was up to the US Government to set laws on emissions, so with the US Government being friendly to the Carmakers since they like them to employ people and add to the national GDP, this meant that a status quo was reached. Well, that is no more. The EPA can now be sued by environmental lobbyists if they fail to introduce emission laws to restrict CO2 output for private vehicles.
This will open the floodgates, California mayor Arnie Schwarzenegger is trying to force through laws to restrict CO2 emissions in hius state, and this landmark ruling can only tip the balance in his favour.
This is really bad news for the US Big 3 of GM, Ford and Chrysler, who have come to rely on sales of SUVs and Trucks for the majority of their profits as with such ancient technology they hardly have to spend anything on R&D. So they've let development of smaller vehicles slide, and are noticeably behind Japanese and German manufacturers when it comes to all round quality. In Europe, they are having to compete as a budget option rather than head on with the top brands. If their main source of income is cut, these companies will be in big trouble - they already are in trouble right now - imagine the state of their bank accounts if they can't sell SUVs and trucks!
They basically have 1 model generation left (for 2009/2010 introuduction) after that, the next generation they develop (For 2015) will have to conform with new emission laws.
It's also bad news for sports and muscle car enthusiasts, as it won't be just SUVs and pick up trucks that get hit by this legislation.
GM have already announced that development of their RWD platform has been put on hold until specific emission legislation has been passed. They also said that the Camaro was unaffected - but the next big Cadillac and Buick may not be made depending on th results.
Looks like boxy front wheel drive monotony from here on in...
This will open the floodgates, California mayor Arnie Schwarzenegger is trying to force through laws to restrict CO2 emissions in hius state, and this landmark ruling can only tip the balance in his favour.
This is really bad news for the US Big 3 of GM, Ford and Chrysler, who have come to rely on sales of SUVs and Trucks for the majority of their profits as with such ancient technology they hardly have to spend anything on R&D. So they've let development of smaller vehicles slide, and are noticeably behind Japanese and German manufacturers when it comes to all round quality. In Europe, they are having to compete as a budget option rather than head on with the top brands. If their main source of income is cut, these companies will be in big trouble - they already are in trouble right now - imagine the state of their bank accounts if they can't sell SUVs and trucks!
They basically have 1 model generation left (for 2009/2010 introuduction) after that, the next generation they develop (For 2015) will have to conform with new emission laws.
It's also bad news for sports and muscle car enthusiasts, as it won't be just SUVs and pick up trucks that get hit by this legislation.
GM have already announced that development of their RWD platform has been put on hold until specific emission legislation has been passed. They also said that the Camaro was unaffected - but the next big Cadillac and Buick may not be made depending on th results.
Looks like boxy front wheel drive monotony from here on in...
Indeed, the Manufacturers only have themselves to blame.
Their management has for a long time underinvested in their products and thats why they are in trouble now in the face of quality products from the likes of Toyota, Honda and VAG, instead they've been living off the lucrative profits from awful SUVs and Trucks.
Most of GM, Ford and Chryslers US product line up are rubbish compared with the best European or Japanese cars.
The ruling on SUVs and Trucks will hit them hard, and may even bankrupt them.
I am only sorry about it because it may cost us such icons as the Camaro, Corvette, Mustang etc will be lost if these firms go under. I won't be sad to see the back of wasteful SUVs and Pick Ups that are just driven like a commuter vehicle, nor monstrosities like the Buick LeSabre or Pontiac Aztec.
If the big 3 manage to survive, there is no reason why muscle cars or sports cars shouldn't continue. A move toward renewable fuel like ethanol would work, as would lighter mass vehicles, hybrid motors, hydrogen generators etc etc. You could satill have a clean V8.
The argument over whether imposing some arbitrary limit on Co2 only will save the world is another matter. I mean, what about aircraft, oceans, houses, animals, and all the other gases that help warm the globe? Since CO2 levels follow global warming with an 800 year lag, there is a serious doubt over whether the use of private cars has really made much of a difference anyway.
Their management has for a long time underinvested in their products and thats why they are in trouble now in the face of quality products from the likes of Toyota, Honda and VAG, instead they've been living off the lucrative profits from awful SUVs and Trucks.
Most of GM, Ford and Chryslers US product line up are rubbish compared with the best European or Japanese cars.
The ruling on SUVs and Trucks will hit them hard, and may even bankrupt them.
I am only sorry about it because it may cost us such icons as the Camaro, Corvette, Mustang etc will be lost if these firms go under. I won't be sad to see the back of wasteful SUVs and Pick Ups that are just driven like a commuter vehicle, nor monstrosities like the Buick LeSabre or Pontiac Aztec.
If the big 3 manage to survive, there is no reason why muscle cars or sports cars shouldn't continue. A move toward renewable fuel like ethanol would work, as would lighter mass vehicles, hybrid motors, hydrogen generators etc etc. You could satill have a clean V8.
The argument over whether imposing some arbitrary limit on Co2 only will save the world is another matter. I mean, what about aircraft, oceans, houses, animals, and all the other gases that help warm the globe? Since CO2 levels follow global warming with an 800 year lag, there is a serious doubt over whether the use of private cars has really made much of a difference anyway.
grumbledoak said:
As I understand it, the ruling was not that the EPA must, but that it can, where previously the EPA had thought it was up to the government. What they do now is up to them.
The Green-slime are calling it a victory, nonetheless.
The Green-slime are calling it a victory, nonetheless.
Well it’ll be a victory of sorts if the EPA actually do it, but I doubt they’ll do anything worthwhile anyway. They’re up against powerful vested interests. They’ll probably demand that the average consumption rises from 24 to 25. We’ll see.
grumbledoak said:
As I understand it, the ruling was not that the EPA must, but that it can, where previously the EPA had thought it was up to the government. What they do now is up to them.
The Green-slime are calling it a victory, nonetheless.
The Green-slime are calling it a victory, nonetheless.
True about the ruling, but the EPA can now be sued if they do nothing, and the State of Massachusetts and also California will definately do so now the scales have tipped in their favour. Thats why they first had to prove it was the EPAs responsibility, because they want to force through CO2 legislation. So now they'll make the next step - to force them to do something.
The EPA may yet try and use the power of the automakers to introduce an easy target to meet, maybe getting tighter over a period of time, but it doesn't make any sense to do that really with the rest of the world already going in a more legislative direction, they'll just stay behind the curve but they may be able to survive at least.
It's a problem alot of manufacturers are facing in Europe too. Porsche are only getting into bed with VW so that their small but dirty output can easily be offset by large volumes of cleaner VW hatchbacks. The trouble with the American 3 is that they hardly produce any small vehicles for the local market in comparison to big ones, so have nothing much to fall back on. The smallest independant manufacturers making luxury or sports cars are the most at risk, Morgan, for example. Lets hope that SVA laws will provide the loophole needed for small scale production to exist outside of draconian and frankly ineffective CO2 laws.
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