Spread betting volunteers
Discussion
Right chaps, need some willing volunteers. Although I have the SH mob, they frankly are a bit bloody useless at actually doing anything, whereas you lot are rather enthusastic.
The guy who got me into this does currencies. He watches the GB/EU, GB/US and EU/US and reckons they are rather like Gold and Silver. When they make a determined move in one direction, it stays in that direction. The pt you bet on is also like 2 or 3 decimal pts, not the main full numbers. I dont have the time to monitor currencies and map out what they do, get a feel for them and learn to know them.
This is where you lot of monkeys come in. My man says he is making £3-4k/month from currencies, so its a profitable bash. I need 1 or 2 of you to monitor this stuff and learn what they do. Some of you have been pretty eager to play in IG, so I figure at least a cpl of you saddos will be up for it
Currencies run all day and close at 8pm. We need to know what they do, what their trends are, how reliable they are, etc, etc.
The guy who got me into this does currencies. He watches the GB/EU, GB/US and EU/US and reckons they are rather like Gold and Silver. When they make a determined move in one direction, it stays in that direction. The pt you bet on is also like 2 or 3 decimal pts, not the main full numbers. I dont have the time to monitor currencies and map out what they do, get a feel for them and learn to know them.
This is where you lot of monkeys come in. My man says he is making £3-4k/month from currencies, so its a profitable bash. I need 1 or 2 of you to monitor this stuff and learn what they do. Some of you have been pretty eager to play in IG, so I figure at least a cpl of you saddos will be up for it
Currencies run all day and close at 8pm. We need to know what they do, what their trends are, how reliable they are, etc, etc.DJC said:
alltorque said:
Can they be monitored on IG? What website is best to look at this?
Er...IG? They are binaries on IG under FX, then ladders and then Up/Down.
Haha, you are a cheeky so and so aren't ya?
ETA - I'll try and have a look tonight - sounds promising!
Edited by alltorque on Thursday 17th May 09:57
me, silver is giving me a heart attack here!
Kinky said:
DJC said:
Although I have the SH mob, they frankly are a bit bloody useless at actually doing anything, whereas you lot are rather enthusastic.
DJ - that's not a particularly fair statement to make.
K
I agree!
Everyday I have been having a crack at this to understand it so as I can actually attempt to help you out. I have offered on more than one occasion to help you out in the shareheads forum after havent learnt more about the market trends but I havent received a reply back yet.
Robatr0n said:
Kinky said:
DJC said:
Although I have the SH mob, they frankly are a bit bloody useless at actually doing anything, whereas you lot are rather enthusastic.
DJ - that's not a particularly fair statement to make.
K
I agree!
Everyday I have been having a crack at this to understand it so as I can actually attempt to help you out. I have offered on more than one occasion to help you out in the shareheads forum after havent learnt more about the market trends but I havent received a reply back yet.
Yep you have. One person and Ive been watching your posts and watching you learn.
One person from what I can gather and Im not sure if trooperiz is another. So maybe 2.
So actually Kinky, no, I wasnt being unfair.
plasticpig said:
Is there anyway of getting historic data? It would be a good idea to model the fluctuations over a couple of years and see how it performs.
There *may* be ways and means...
I have access to rather a lot of this kind of data, and though currencies aren't 'my' area, the concept is more or less the same. Sadly I'm too busy tomorrow and off next week, but it strikes me as something worthwhile I could do on the Bank Holiday or after.
The one caution I would make is that the FX markets are 24-hour, so the rather arbitrary 'close' time of 2000 (for the binary) might be an issue. FWIW I'd say that if a pattern exists, it will be on certain time periods each day - say for instance 9am to noon UK: if it's up at 10.30 it will (@90%+) be up further at 12. With that kind of pattern you can close things yourself...
you would do yourself a favour, and save yourself a lot of money by taking a couple of days out to read this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fooled_b
your strategy so far is no different to writing insurance or selling out of the money puts. Underwriting low probability events works 98% of the time, looks clever with a small sample size, but you WILL get carried out sooner or later. Unless you can prove that the market is pricing the premium on these events absurdly high, and it is correct to sell it, by the time you have covered the inherent costs, bid-offer spread and your own time there will be no free lunch left.
I've read nothing so far that convinces me you have any competitive advantage and there seem plenty of others on here who have far more experience of trading financial markets and sporting events than yourself.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fooled_b
your strategy so far is no different to writing insurance or selling out of the money puts. Underwriting low probability events works 98% of the time, looks clever with a small sample size, but you WILL get carried out sooner or later. Unless you can prove that the market is pricing the premium on these events absurdly high, and it is correct to sell it, by the time you have covered the inherent costs, bid-offer spread and your own time there will be no free lunch left.
I've read nothing so far that convinces me you have any competitive advantage and there seem plenty of others on here who have far more experience of trading financial markets and sporting events than yourself.
TheArb - I couldn't have put it better myself. These stupid bets never refer to 'VALUE' such as the underlying volatility or implied against historical.
I am absolutely pissing myself at the notion you can pay 95 on a binary and make 5 ticks for no real risk. Paying 95 suggests that the market only has a 5% risk of moving in the opposite direction. If the theoretical value of it moving the other way was 7% you would be locking on a loss long term.
There are some boys going to do their nuts big style on this thread.
I am absolutely pissing myself at the notion you can pay 95 on a binary and make 5 ticks for no real risk. Paying 95 suggests that the market only has a 5% risk of moving in the opposite direction. If the theoretical value of it moving the other way was 7% you would be locking on a loss long term.
There are some boys going to do their nuts big style on this thread.
jonathanf said:
TheArb - I couldn't have put it better myself. These stupid bets never refer to 'VALUE' such as the underlying volatility or implied against historical.
I am absolutely pissing myself at the notion you can pay 95 on a binary and make 5 ticks for no real risk. Paying 95 suggests that the market only has a 5% risk of moving in the opposite direction. If the theoretical value of it moving the other way was 7% you would be locking on a loss long term.
There are some boys going to do their nuts big style on this thread.
I am absolutely pissing myself at the notion you can pay 95 on a binary and make 5 ticks for no real risk. Paying 95 suggests that the market only has a 5% risk of moving in the opposite direction. If the theoretical value of it moving the other way was 7% you would be locking on a loss long term.
There are some boys going to do their nuts big style on this thread.
I agree - I've been saying all along that I thought his approach was a little suspect. However, if you view it as gambling and just 'bet' with some pocket money you're prepared to lose then it can be a great laugh.... (he says wiping the sweat away from his fevered brow)
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