Worthless Statistics

[tonyrec]

I feel that most occasions (not every) Statistics are being, or are open to abuse to suit whatever cause they are being aimed at.

A first hand example that i can think about is when i was a young Pc on Division.

This relates to Statistics for Burglaries in the area.

For the first few months of the year,if a Burglar broke into an old Victorian type house with several floors and had been turned into at least 6 seperate flats (as is often the case now)and he proceeded to Burgle each and every flat inside then this would have been classified as 6 seperate Burglaries.

HOWEVER

Towards then end of the year when Statistics for Burglary were going through the roof then the same example would have been classified as one Burglary (with 6 victims)in order to get a reduction in the overall figures.

This example can and is regulary applied everyday in a variety of situations (outside the Police Service)but i know that im preaching to the converted here in relation to Statistics.

The down side of this is that the true Statistics given for whatever example are often received with a large amount of cynacism as a result of these misleading figures.

What are your comments?? (remember to chill out before replying)

[pmanson]

[ChillModeOn]

Its a bit like Hospital waiting lists. My Dad's been waiting 18 months for a hernia op. He's gets a date for it and then receives a letter saying they've changed the hospital from Stoke Mandeville to High Wycombe and they didn't know when the op would take place.

[/ChillModeOff]

[plotloss]

We need an office for national statistics like they have in the US.

Basically if any figures are published they are ratified by this office so that one particular party cannot spin the figures or go throught that seasonally adjusted rubbish.

We need a public declaration of how statistics are to be compiled and then we need an office with a damned big stick who are nothing to do with any government that ensure all figures are fairly represented.

[pesty]

Tony to be honest we know this goes on and I'm happy to see that some policemen realise this and are annoyed and alarmed as we are.

I'm sure you understand that this makes alot of honest civilians very angry and Disillusioned (damn this web site needs spell check) which only makes your job harder.
when I and every person I know has been a victim of crime in fact multiple crimes it doesnt help when politicians come on Tv and say were imagining it

problem is what do we do about it? The only thing I can think of is to vote for the Cheif of police for each region and then it might get better.

edited for spelling after going on word



>> Edited by pesty on Thursday 19th June 10:06

[m-five]

plotloss said:

We need an office for national statistics like they have in the US. Basically if any figures are published they are ratified by this office so that one particular party cannot spin the figures or go throught that seasonally adjusted rubbish. We need a public declaration of how statistics are to be compiled and then we need an office with a damned big stick who are nothing to do with any government that ensure all figures are fairly represented.

We have one . . . its called the Office for National Statistics (or ONS) and it is in London, Newport, Southport and Fareham.

www.statistics.gov.uk

[plotloss]

So, why dont they use it then?

[ashes]

I used to work for the Jobcentre Head Office and had dealings with the monthly unemployment stats. Once the figures were produced, they went through 47 different programs to 'adjust' the figures. Strangely the figures always went down.

My brother-in-law is waiting for an ECG for his heart. He is currently on the waiting list to get on the waiting list (i kid you not)

My neighbour was due a hip operation after a three year wait. He was called in to see the surgeon and expected to get a date for surgery. Instead he and two other patients were told they no longer needed the op. He can hardly walk..... (the waiting list target was met for that hospital)

Still mustn't complain

[swilly]

The problem arises from the public and political pressure on police forces to perform, whilst not necessarily having the resources or means to do so.

The public generally imho do not do much to assist the police, until they are the victims of crime themselves.

The politicising of the police force and its remit has diverted the priority from investigating and preventing crime and upholding the law to demonstrating to the politicians and the public that they are performing.
Thus you get the switch of resources into area of crime that are easy to deal with and provide nice statistics such as speeding etc etc whilst difficult areas such as theft and burglary get ignored.
After all if a crime isn't allowed to be reported or recorded then it doesn;t show up on the statistics.

I would much rather not hearing about performance targets and statistics but being able to walk down the street at night without fear, or having my car nicked or house robbed.

It is governments obsession with statistics and measuring performance to try and convince the electorate that it is doing a good job that is destroying our services and preventing the polics from doing what they joined up to do.

[pbrettle]

plotloss said:

So, why dont they use it then?

We do for the obvious stuff like census information and detailed statistics on population. However, there is little that they do for the politically 'sensitive' ones... like anything to do with the Police etc...

Shame really, but as Tonyrec says, most stuff is manipulated to suit a purpose..

Cheers,

Paul

[plotloss]

Thats what I mean, their remit should include the politically sensitive bits so that we the public can see the actual picture not that of Labourian Pinko-vision.

[Size Nine Elm]

swilly said:

The problem arises from the public and political pressure on police forces to perform, whilst not necessarily having the resources or means to do so. The public generally imho do not do much to assist the police, until they are the victims of crime themselves. The politicising of the police force and its remit has diverted the priority from investigating and preventing crime and upholding the law to demonstrating to the politicians and the public that they are performing. Thus you get the switch of resources into area of crime that are easy to deal with and provide nice statistics such as speeding etc etc whilst difficult areas such as theft and burglary get ignored. After all if a crime isn't allowed to be reported or recorded then it doesn;t show up on the statistics. I would much rather not hearing about performance targets and statistics but being able to walk down the street at night without fear, or having my car nicked or house robbed. It is governments obsession with statistics and measuring performance to try and convince the electorate that it is doing a good job that is destroying our services and preventing the polics from doing what they joined up to do.

Its a classic behaviour in almost any circumstance - if you start measuring any aspect of performance, behaviour changes to optimise the measure, rather than the performance.

Typical is call centre operative performance. Give them a target number of calls per hour to deal with, and the behaviour becomes one of dealing with a customer, and getting them off the line, as fast as possible, instead of dealing with their problem. This results in poorer customer service, which ironically is the whole point of the call centre.

We've had the police, health service, and educational service doing their job for years. Generally, they know whats important and focus attention on it. But put these 'performance targets' in place, and the whole thing skews to delivering on the targets instead of the core function, and real world performance decreases.

Thanks, Tony.

[swilly]

So the answer is a simple one. Scrap external performance montitoring, replace it with internal monitoring to allow the services to see themselves were they are performing and where improvements are needed.

Allow the professional to do a professional job.

[pesty]

er no actualy keep the targets we nned to see how these services are performing.

just record 6 breakins as 6 and not 1 its not hard the problem may be resourses but until accountants stop being able to fiddle the numbers we will never be able to prove it.

the statistics arnt the problem its the spin docters abusing them for their own ends.

[swilly]

pesty said:

er no actualy keep the targets we nned to see how these services are performing. just record 6 breakins as 6 and not 1 its not hard the problem may be resourses but until accountants stop being able to fiddle the numbers we will never be able to prove it. the statistics arnt the problem its the spin docters abusing them for their own ends.

Do you know how the services are performing though? or do you just get the latest update from the press.
Do the performance indicators cover all the areas of operation and show how the service as a whole is performing or are they chosen to show a particular side of things.
The governemnt gave up on NHS waiting list targets because they admitted waiting lists were just being manipulated and treatment was being prioritised for those that could be dealt with quickly as opposed to those that's conditions dictated speedy treatment was required.

Perfomance targets are only of use when they are met. They are abandoned or manipulated when they are not met and thus are self defeating

[angusfaldo]

Statistics. Pah.

And to prove the point - most normally developed (physically) people have more than the average number of legs.

That's a useful statistic!

[deltaf]

Nice one Tonyrec! respectamundo!

[hertsbiker]

excellent post that man! think we've chilled, and you've just found yourself on the same side...

[5ltr-chim]

Don't forget - the greater the number of crimes the greater the chances of resources being allocated to deal with it. i.e if a road has 50 robberies every week it's got more chance of a patrol car once in a blue moon than if it has 1 per year.

This is (at least in principal) the basis of a camera being put in the box. i.e. the more injury accidents in the last 3 years the greater the chances of the box being live.

So the point I'm making is report any and every crime/potential crime/perceived danger and you might get an officer in the area occasionally. If the figures are high enough they might (unlikely though) take them out of the Scamera vans occasionally.