Lottery probability - simple question

[zadumbreion]

In order to try and explain to a colleague how unlikely it would be for his numbers to come up, I said that it was just as likely that the winning numbers would be "1,2,3,4,5,6" (which somehow sounds a lost less likely - it would make the news everywhere)

That's right, isn't it?

[NickXX]

Yes

[Gregor Marshall]

In theory, mathematically and probability yes, just as likely.

In reality who knows.............

[robbieduncan]

The numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6 are just as likely to come out as any other set of 6 numbers as long as you are not specifying the sequence the numbers are drawn in. By this I mean that if the numbers were drawn 6,2,3,1,5,4 that would be fine. The chances of any six number set being drawn in a specific order are much lower than than the chances of the same six number set being drawn in any order.

[NWTony]

It is right but it depends on the lottery machine picking entirely random numbers, if you had a computer powerful enough and knew all the variables the numbers would be predictable from the action of the machine. Didn't someone devise something to predict the outcome of the spin of a roulette wheel and then get banned from casinos?

Anyway in theory, if the machine is random, then 1 through 6 is just as likely as any other combination. If it ever came up I reckon the jackpot would be shared by alot of smart arses though

[marshalla]

http://plus.maths.org/issue29/features/haigh/index.html 

[snowy]

Don't pick the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6 as you would share the jack pot with about 10000 other people

[cronk-flakes]

snowy said:

Don't pick the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6 as you would share the jack pot with about 10000 other people

Better than not sharing it at all

[Chrispy Porker]

Slightly O/T

But were I on Deal or No Deal I would simply pick my boxes from left to right.

You have just as much chance as those who pick 'lucky numbers'

Surely?

[2 sMoKiN bArReLs]

Chrispy Porker said:

Slightly O/T

But were I on Deal or No Deal I would simply pick my boxes from left to right.

You have just as much chance as those who pick 'lucky numbers'

Surely?

Yes, but it'd be even duller.

and don't call me Shirley

[Budaholic]

snowy said:

Don't pick the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6 as you would share the jack pot with about 10000 other people

I wonder, should I start doing 2,3,4,5,6,7 instead then?

[GTIR]

2 sMoKiN bArReLs said:

Chrispy Porker said:

Slightly O/T

But were I on Deal or No Deal I would simply pick my boxes from left to right.

You have just as much chance as those who pick 'lucky numbers'

Surely?

Yes, but it'd be even duller.

and don't call me Shirley

00

Roger

[Chrispy Porker]

2 sMoKiN bArReLs said:

Chrispy Porker said:

Slightly O/T

But were I on Deal or No Deal I would simply pick my boxes from left to right.

You have just as much chance as those who pick 'lucky numbers'

Surely?

Yes, but it'd be even duller.

and don't call me Shirley

I enjoy watching daft greedy people not knowing a good offer when they see one.

[shadowninja]

Budaholic said:

snowy said:

Don't pick the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6 as you would share the jack pot with about 10000 other people

I wonder, should I start doing 2,3,4,5,6,7 instead then?

No, because the 10000 others who think they are smarter would do that. In fact, the 10000 who did do 1,2,3,4,5,6 and thought, "Hang on, everyone else will do that so I'll use 7 insteard..." as a double bluff mean that you should actually choose 1,2,3,4,5,6 because nobody is dumb enough to use these numbers. A triple bluff, if you will.

[tvrtim]

robbieduncan, Sorry to be pedantic but I think you should have said Higher rather than Lower in your above post.

[zadumbreion]

Funny though, isn't it - I bet if the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6 DID come up, it would be a big news story. Somehow it just seems a lot less likely than any other arbitary choice of numbers.

Odd.

[Bing o]

zadumbreion said:

Funny though, isn't it - I bet if the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6 DID come up, it would be a big news story. Somehow it just seems a lot less likely than any other arbitary choice of numbers.

Odd.

It is no more or less likely, but it would be more newsworthy...

[shadowninja]

Bing o said:

zadumbreion said:

Funny though, isn't it - I bet if the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6 DID come up, it would be a big news story. Somehow it just seems a lot less likely than any other arbitary choice of numbers.

Odd.

It is no more or less likely, but it would be more newsworthy...

Cos people is stoopid.

[bimsb6]

Budaholic said:

snowy said:

Don't pick the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6 as you would share the jack pot with about 10000 other people

I wonder, should I start doing 2,3,4,5,6,7 instead then?

no because you would have 1 number missing .or is that number 1 missing

[mrmaggit]

More to the point, what about the lottery in Japan, six numbers came out, nobody won, next week, same numbers came out, again, nobody won!