Would you risk a start up...now?
Would you risk a start up...now?
Author
Discussion

paulpsz008

Original Poster:

463 posts

239 months

Thursday 1st May 2008
quotequote all
I know thats a bit of a vague question and theres too many factors to consider, but is/would anyone risk a start up in the current climate?

Got an idea, intial plans look good even on conservative numbers?

But is now the time to go for it?

P.S. would be my first venture too!

CHIEF

2,270 posts

313 months

Thursday 1st May 2008
quotequote all
Listen i'm no expert - bloody hell far from it but i've been in our company business for 15 years now and we're in one of the hardest industries - manufacturing.

I can tell you this, obviously you need to be sure about your idea is viable, its no good just trying to convince yourself, ask friends family but at the end of the day go with your intuition.

secondly, i might be telling you how to suck eggs here but keep control of costs as much as possible, keep your outgoings as low as possible, i.e. small premises or work from home, buy at the right price and as a result you can be competative.

A friend of my old fellas is worth 700 million and used to own quicksave and the chain of Total Fitness gyms, my dad asked him what his secret was. he replied 'always give value for money' he's as tight as a ducks a**e but as a result all the money is straight on the bottom line.

I've seen so many business go pop because the bosses get an ego and start going daft with ostentasious, flash cars, oak panelled offices, basically unessacaery spending.

You get my drift.

but bugger it give it a go trust your instincts

Edited by CHIEF on Thursday 1st May 22:15

rpguk

4,520 posts

315 months

Thursday 1st May 2008
quotequote all
Depends what market it's in really and if you're after capital. An economic downturn isn't bad news for everyone.


shadowninja

80,145 posts

313 months

Thursday 1st May 2008
quotequote all
Supplying boards for derelict properties? Bad debt "agency"? biggrin

paulpsz008

Original Poster:

463 posts

239 months

Friday 2nd May 2008
quotequote all
Cheers,

That's kind of along the lines I'm thinking. (not the boarding up house's. though maybe thats an idea??)

Basically it'll be based in the leisure industry.

I'm taking a working business model from some of my current clients (I currently supply equipment to this industry), and using my own very specific knowledge & experience would drive the associated costs down to offer better value for money.

My key advantages are;
I can optimise space better than most - Its my current job.
I have opportunities/contacts to source good value equipment - as above.

Reasons for going ahead now;
I think I'm ready!
Had enough of working for other people for minimum reward.
Some of the opportunities mentioned above are only available for a short time.
I expect their to be a lot of intrest in the market over the next 5yrs.

Problems with going ahead now;
I would need to source some capital, though probably considered a low ish amount (~£50k).
I would probably need to release some equity for my own input of cash.
Are people likely to keep spending on Leisure over the next few years?
It looks like I'd need to secure a medium/long term lease to get a good rental rate.

Ta,

shadowninja

80,145 posts

313 months

Friday 2nd May 2008
quotequote all
paulpsz008 said:
Are people likely to keep spending on Leisure over the next few years?
That is the key. If your clients are getting money then they have money to give you. So, you need to speak to people who work in the industry. You could call up some well-established companies who've been around for 15-20 years (ie have been hit by a couple of recessions).

Ade355

337 posts

271 months

Friday 2nd May 2008
quotequote all
I would personally only go ahead in your situation if I had a decent wedge in a saving account to back myself up. Also make sure you imagine yourself in the position of earning less than you currently are with your new business - in your imagination does the increased risk/flexibility/control outweigh the reduced earns? If you can answer yes, then you are probably ready IMO.

Andrew[MG]

3,360 posts

229 months

Friday 2nd May 2008
quotequote all
Start a bus company - going by what's said on here people are starting to give up their cars....

lambogenie

794 posts

233 months

Friday 2nd May 2008
quotequote all
if you are planning to start a industry in "discretionary spending" then i would say no, the current climate will not favour a startup even if you can make a lot of efficiency savings. The problem is those savings make you more competetive but you still need to burn cash to generate customers. Starbucks etc are seeing sales drop off in the US as people cut back on 5 dollar frappacinos as "discretionary spending", things like gym memberships are usually the first to go during belt tightening, offering a better value service helps you keep customers but not attract new ones, if people dont feel it essential to spend the money in a tight economy they wont join in the first place so you will struggle.

but not all startups are bad news, the tech sector out in California is awash with money, the dearth of high return private equity deals due to debt conditions mean huge overhang of VC cash as its not being soaked up by huge MBO's and most internet startups cost peanuts due to moores law, as someone pointed out over that rogue french trader, while he lost billions all that happened was that another bunch of guys made billions, there isnt less money in the economy it just gets moved to different places, the key to a good startup and business trading in a recession is diversification into sectors where the capital has gone, thats the success of people like Branson, they spread into different markets.

But i would probably say opening in the leisure sector would be difficult right now, even with all your efficiency savings other operators are going to be slashing prices, improving services and using capital reserves to hang onto their customers, they will not simply stand still and lose market share so you will be in for a tough fight.

good luck whatever you decide.

paulpsz008

Original Poster:

463 posts

239 months

Friday 2nd May 2008
quotequote all
Thanks again,
There's some really good stuff there,

The big question I keep asking myself is;

Will the increased intrest in this specific sector (this is guaranteed on the run upto 2012) actually convert to increased spending in the sector?




Edited by paulpsz008 on Friday 2nd May 16:42

paulpsz008

Original Poster:

463 posts

239 months

Friday 2nd May 2008
quotequote all
Ade355 said:
I would personally only go ahead in your situation if I had a decent wedge in a saving account to back myself up. Also make sure you imagine yourself in the position of earning less than you currently are with your new business - in your imagination does the increased risk/flexibility/control outweigh the reduced earns? If you can answer yes, then you are probably ready IMO.
That's kind of what I meant by - I think I'm ready.

Though I do admit I probably need a larger savings pot to tide me through the tuff stuff.

Plotloss

67,280 posts

301 months

Friday 2nd May 2008
quotequote all
I'd start up in the current climate.

But I wouldnt borrow to do it.

Cashflow, cashflow, cashflow.

Whenever someone tells you that cashflow is king and that almost nothing else matters, listen to them.

gtr-gaz

5,284 posts

277 months

Friday 2nd May 2008
quotequote all
Can't offer any specific advice but, what I can say is this, If you don't give it a try you will never know.

Chrisgr31

14,290 posts

286 months

Friday 2nd May 2008
quotequote all
CHIEF said:
A friend of my old fellas is worth 700 million and used to own quicksave and the chain of Total Fitness gyms, my dad asked him what his secret was. he replied 'always give value for money' he's as tight as a ducks a**e but as a result all the money is straight on the bottom line.
I'd say that his secret was knowing when to sell!

SystemParanoia

14,343 posts

229 months

Friday 2nd May 2008
quotequote all
paulpsz008 said:
Would you risk a start up...now?
i have.

all is well... so far... apart from my previous employer causing cash flow problems by not paying me my last pay cheque frown

PhilLL

1,123 posts

231 months

Friday 2nd May 2008
quotequote all
As has already been mentioned here before, one key advantage new start-ups have at the moment is the ability to react quickly to a changing market and the ability to keep overheads to a minimum.

Larger more established companies may have to cut out inefficiencies (job cuts, change in working practice etc) to remain afloat in a recession.

Starting in a recession forces you to pare back costs, be creative in your business strategies and really pay attention to cash flow, balance sheet etc.

If you do take on employees and they're taking the leap to a new start up in an uncertain job market, chances are they will be every bit as committed to making the business a success as you are.

Also, if you start now then you will have a headstart on those who enter the same sector when things start to pick up in the economy. Or put it this way; how would you feel if you incubated your idea until the economy picks up only to realise someone has beaten you to your market niche, or those opportunities you've already identified no longer exist?

Both myself and my partner are starting up new ventures at the moment so I hope some of the points I mentioned are true!

singlecoil

35,836 posts

277 months

Friday 2nd May 2008
quotequote all
What will be your source of customers? How will you get them to come to you and give you money? How much will it cost you to get there customers? Who is getting that money at the moment? How will they react when they see the money they thought they were going to get going elsewhere?

These are some of the questions you will want to consider

Huliganov

319 posts

226 months

Friday 2nd May 2008
quotequote all
Same situation at the moment for me. Looking to open a spares shop, know the trade more or less inside out, have tonnes of experience in handling many sectors such as parts, customer services, liasing with CEOs, bank managers, prices (competitive ones, not rip off prices!), what to and what not to stock etc etc. Only problem is 'can I afford to start up a spares business in the current economic climate?. My heart and mind are 50-50.


DucatiGary

7,765 posts

256 months

Friday 2nd May 2008
quotequote all
CHIEF said:
A friend of my old fellas is worth 700 million and used to own quicksave
kwiksave

;)

as for starting up now, if you have a solid plan and are willing to do without any new toys for a couple of years to help it build up, i see no reason why not.

just make sure you have a solid plan of attack and plan for the very worst.

if it still looks like you can live of the very worst you should be alright aslong as you aim to do well more than your planned figs.

srebbe64

13,021 posts

268 months

Friday 2nd May 2008
quotequote all
This may sound really negative, but what happens to your model/return if:

1) You double the initial sales lead time;
2) You double your projected costs;
3) You halve your first two years sales;

If after the above you're not totally dead in the water then it may well be a goer.