Base Rate decision this week - will it be that simple ?

[anonymous-user]

[redacted]

[Fittster]

Drop in oil and general commodity prices means they can avoid having to face up to a rate rise.

[Muncher]

No change...

[NoelWatson]

Muncher said:

No change...

Ditto

[mft]

Should probably put them up, but I said that last time, and they wimped out. So I'll go for no change, this time.

[supersingle]

I wish I were a member of this committee. I'd make whichever decisions were best for my own investments!

[s2art]

Given the direction the economy is going in, and the lag time for an interest rate change to have an effect, its about time they lowered the rate.

[eldar]

Fittster said:

Drop in oil and general commodity prices means they can avoid having to face up to a rate rise.

+1

[D1MAC]

No change - they're gagging to do something but just can't ask that girl out as they know what the long term impact will be one way or t'other.

[s2art]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Yes, the current inflation is transient. Wait till later this year when a) The energy price hike that started last year is in the inflation calculations, and b) the economy is in recession (or very near to recession).

[NoelWatson]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

So you are saying that the upcoming price rises from British Gas and co aren't going to have an effect? And that the record PPI numbers aren't going to start feeding into the headline rate at some point soon?

[turbobloke]

They should forget inflation for a month and cut rates, given that recent inflationary pressure wasn't caused by rates being too low, higher rates will just add pointless pain. The pain will happen anyway. Not a fan of high rates, much over-rated.

But what I think they will do is wibble and hold.

[NoelWatson]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Consensus on Bloomberg is that we end the year at 5%

[turbobloke]

NoelWatson said:

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Consensus on Bloomberg is that we end the year at 5%

But then our MPC are soooooooo independent of everything, they'll make their independent minds up independently of Brown & Bloomberg so who knows

[oyster]

Split decision this week I think with some (maybe 3 or 4) voting for a cut but the other 5 or 6 voting for hold - end result HOLD.

[randomman]

I reckon it will be a hold, with a tilt towards cut.

[NoelWatson]

turbobloke said:

NoelWatson said:

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Consensus on Bloomberg is that we end the year at 5%

But then our MPC are soooooooo independent of everything, they'll make their independent minds up independently of Brown & Bloomberg so who knows

I think Blanchflower has an automated email message that sends out "cut" every month.

The analysts got it very wrong in Jan 2007

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2007/jan/12/int...

[Plotloss]

Stick.

There wont be a cut this side of 2009.

But the pressure is off a bit on commodities meaning a rise can be avoided this time.

[DannyR]

I would agree with Tonkers sentiments. Rate cuts would have no real effect, reckon they will hold.

[onomatopoeia]

Stick I think.

I've no idea if this counts as a "commodity" or not, but over the last two weeks the price for me to fill my oil tank (1000 litres) has dropped from £639 to £580. I imagine this in some way reflects a fall in the price of crude.