Lehman brothers

[Mikeyboy]

So its share price has been shall we say, underperforming, these last few months.

So how much is it worth these days and is it worth me buying it outright when I win the Euromillions tonight?

Could I even do so?

[Mikeyboy]

Tonker I know they're a basket case, they were a client of mine (thanks to them I have a new kitchen, car, and most of my mortgage paid)and know the internal situation very well.

But even knowing this surely there is something salvageable? And if someone negotiated the right terms couldn't it be turned around?

[Skipppy]

The market is doing its best to destroy them.

[mantra]

Enron also looked good value once its share price had fallen 90%. 7th largest US corporate, consistently Forbes no1 most admired company, all those MBA hotshots working for the company, how could it possibly collapse, surely it was a good time to buy!

[Mikeyboy]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

never dealt with Koreans actually but I can imagine.

Hmm so lets say the Koreans don't go any further...
well i would hope the Debt division wasn't completely dead, there were some quality people in there. But having said that its within the trading function that most of the talent lies.

I would probably get rid of the cash equity department as it always underperformed the market.

IB I would keep but in a much smaller size, perhaps being a bit ruthless about the teams that weren't tip top performers.

other departments with which I'm much more intimate I should probably withhold comment on.

Oh and I would sell the IM divisions to raise some cash, even if it does represent almost all the value of the company.

but above all that I would hire someone like Bob Diamond (too expensive but you know what i mean?) to run the thing.

You would have a few years of pain but I think it could be made a good and very profitable business again.

ETA: hmm Enron collapsed as much through corruption as anyhing else. lehman's situation is not really the same.

Edited by Mikeyboy on Friday 5th September 15:18

Edited by Mikeyboy on Friday 5th September 15:21

[Mikeyboy]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Oh very much so. This is all very hypotehtical. I mean for one thing I haven't won 92 million

[Horse_Apple]

Mikeyboy said:

anonymous said:

[redacted]

never dealt with Koreans actually but I can imagine.

Hmm so lets say the Koreans don't go any further...
well i would hope the Debt division wasn't completely dead, there were some quality people in there. But having said that its within the trading function that most of the talent lies.

I would probably get rid of the cash equity department as it always underperformed the market.

IB I would keep but in a much smaller size, perhaps being a bit ruthless about the teams that weren't tip top performers.

other departments with which I'm much more intimate I should probably withhold comment on.

Oh and I would sell the IM divisions to raise some cash, even if it does represent almost all the value of the company.

but above all that I would hire someone like Bob Diamond (too expensive but you know what i mean?) to run the thing.

You would have a few years of pain but I think it could be made a good and very profitable business again.

ETA: hmm Enron collapsed as much throuh corrution as anyhing else. lehman's situation is not really the same.

Edited by Mikeyboy on Friday 5th September 15:18

It's pretty much dead.

Their balance sheet is now too small for most clients to be able to work with them.

They need to go in under another bank's umbrella to utilise their balance sheet.

If they remain a stand alone operation they will probably survive as long as a client doesn't massively default but they will not be what they used to be by a long shot.

They'll get taken out one way or another I reckon.

[Mikeyboy]

Horse_Apple said:

Mikeyboy said:

anonymous said:

[redacted]

never dealt with Koreans actually but I can imagine.

Hmm so lets say the Koreans don't go any further...
well i would hope the Debt division wasn't completely dead, there were some quality people in there. But having said that its within the trading function that most of the talent lies.

I would probably get rid of the cash equity department as it always underperformed the market.

IB I would keep but in a much smaller size, perhaps being a bit ruthless about the teams that weren't tip top performers.

other departments with which I'm much more intimate I should probably withhold comment on.

Oh and I would sell the IM divisions to raise some cash, even if it does represent almost all the value of the company.

but above all that I would hire someone like Bob Diamond (too expensive but you know what i mean?) to run the thing.

You would have a few years of pain but I think it could be made a good and very profitable business again.

ETA: hmm Enron collapsed as much throuh corrution as anyhing else. lehman's situation is not really the same.

Edited by Mikeyboy on Friday 5th September 15:18

It's pretty much dead.

Their balance sheet is now too small for most clients to be able to work with them.

They need to go in under another bank's umbrella to utilise their balance sheet.

If they remain a stand alone operation they will probably survive as long as a client doesn't massively default but they will not be what they used to be by a long shot.

They'll get taken out one way or another I reckon.

You know what the lack of trading capital behind them was something I had overlooked. Hmm that in combination with a lack of confidence in them as a counterparty does mean they are cooked really doesn't it.

Right I need to get my friend out of her Job there and into a decent bank then.

[Yanto]

Mikeyboy said:

Horse_Apple said:

Mikeyboy said:

anonymous said:

[redacted]

never dealt with Koreans actually but I can imagine.

Hmm so lets say the Koreans don't go any further...
well i would hope the Debt division wasn't completely dead, there were some quality people in there. But having said that its within the trading function that most of the talent lies.

I would probably get rid of the cash equity department as it always underperformed the market.

IB I would keep but in a much smaller size, perhaps being a bit ruthless about the teams that weren't tip top performers.

other departments with which I'm much more intimate I should probably withhold comment on.

Oh and I would sell the IM divisions to raise some cash, even if it does represent almost all the value of the company.

but above all that I would hire someone like Bob Diamond (too expensive but you know what i mean?) to run the thing.

You would have a few years of pain but I think it could be made a good and very profitable business again.

ETA: hmm Enron collapsed as much throuh corrution as anyhing else. lehman's situation is not really the same.

Edited by Mikeyboy on Friday 5th September 15:18

It's pretty much dead.

Their balance sheet is now too small for most clients to be able to work with them.

They need to go in under another bank's umbrella to utilise their balance sheet.

If they remain a stand alone operation they will probably survive as long as a client doesn't massively default but they will not be what they used to be by a long shot.

They'll get taken out one way or another I reckon.

You know what the lack of trading capital behind them was something I had overlooked. Hmm that in combination with a lack of confidence in them as a counterparty does mean they are cooked really doesn't it.

Right I need to get my friend out of her Job there and into a decent bank then.

You better be quick by the look of things.....

[NoelWatson]

Yanto said:

Mikeyboy said:

Horse_Apple said:

Mikeyboy said:

anonymous said:

[redacted]

never dealt with Koreans actually but I can imagine.

Hmm so lets say the Koreans don't go any further...
well i would hope the Debt division wasn't completely dead, there were some quality people in there. But having said that its within the trading function that most of the talent lies.

I would probably get rid of the cash equity department as it always underperformed the market.

IB I would keep but in a much smaller size, perhaps being a bit ruthless about the teams that weren't tip top performers.

other departments with which I'm much more intimate I should probably withhold comment on.

Oh and I would sell the IM divisions to raise some cash, even if it does represent almost all the value of the company.

but above all that I would hire someone like Bob Diamond (too expensive but you know what i mean?) to run the thing.

You would have a few years of pain but I think it could be made a good and very profitable business again.

ETA: hmm Enron collapsed as much throuh corrution as anyhing else. lehman's situation is not really the same.

Edited by Mikeyboy on Friday 5th September 15:18

It's pretty much dead.

Their balance sheet is now too small for most clients to be able to work with them.

They need to go in under another bank's umbrella to utilise their balance sheet.

If they remain a stand alone operation they will probably survive as long as a client doesn't massively default but they will not be what they used to be by a long shot.

They'll get taken out one way or another I reckon.

You know what the lack of trading capital behind them was something I had overlooked. Hmm that in combination with a lack of confidence in them as a counterparty does mean they are cooked really doesn't it.

Right I need to get my friend out of her Job there and into a decent bank then.

You better be quick by the look of things.....

The banks aren't exactly on a hiring spree!

[Yanto]

NoelWatson said:

Yanto said:

Mikeyboy said:

Horse_Apple said:

Mikeyboy said:

anonymous said:

[redacted]

never dealt with Koreans actually but I can imagine.

Hmm so lets say the Koreans don't go any further...
well i would hope the Debt division wasn't completely dead, there were some quality people in there. But having said that its within the trading function that most of the talent lies.

I would probably get rid of the cash equity department as it always underperformed the market.

IB I would keep but in a much smaller size, perhaps being a bit ruthless about the teams that weren't tip top performers.

other departments with which I'm much more intimate I should probably withhold comment on.

Oh and I would sell the IM divisions to raise some cash, even if it does represent almost all the value of the company.

but above all that I would hire someone like Bob Diamond (too expensive but you know what i mean?) to run the thing.

You would have a few years of pain but I think it could be made a good and very profitable business again.

ETA: hmm Enron collapsed as much throuh corrution as anyhing else. lehman's situation is not really the same.

Edited by Mikeyboy on Friday 5th September 15:18

It's pretty much dead.

Their balance sheet is now too small for most clients to be able to work with them.

They need to go in under another bank's umbrella to utilise their balance sheet.

If they remain a stand alone operation they will probably survive as long as a client doesn't massively default but they will not be what they used to be by a long shot.

They'll get taken out one way or another I reckon.

You know what the lack of trading capital behind them was something I had overlooked. Hmm that in combination with a lack of confidence in them as a counterparty does mean they are cooked really doesn't it.

Right I need to get my friend out of her Job there and into a decent bank then.

You better be quick by the look of things.....

The banks aren't exactly on a hiring spree!

Sweeping statement there chap - some very much are....

[Yanto]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Spot on....3 might be a bit optimistic, but there are some bargains to be had - it's certainly a buyers market

[NoelWatson]

Yanto said:

NoelWatson said:

Yanto said:

Mikeyboy said:

Horse_Apple said:

Mikeyboy said:

anonymous said:

[redacted]

never dealt with Koreans actually but I can imagine.

Hmm so lets say the Koreans don't go any further...
well i would hope the Debt division wasn't completely dead, there were some quality people in there. But having said that its within the trading function that most of the talent lies.

I would probably get rid of the cash equity department as it always underperformed the market.

IB I would keep but in a much smaller size, perhaps being a bit ruthless about the teams that weren't tip top performers.

other departments with which I'm much more intimate I should probably withhold comment on.

Oh and I would sell the IM divisions to raise some cash, even if it does represent almost all the value of the company.

but above all that I would hire someone like Bob Diamond (too expensive but you know what i mean?) to run the thing.

You would have a few years of pain but I think it could be made a good and very profitable business again.

ETA: hmm Enron collapsed as much throuh corrution as anyhing else. lehman's situation is not really the same.

Edited by Mikeyboy on Friday 5th September 15:18

It's pretty much dead.

Their balance sheet is now too small for most clients to be able to work with them.

They need to go in under another bank's umbrella to utilise their balance sheet.

If they remain a stand alone operation they will probably survive as long as a client doesn't massively default but they will not be what they used to be by a long shot.

They'll get taken out one way or another I reckon.

You know what the lack of trading capital behind them was something I had overlooked. Hmm that in combination with a lack of confidence in them as a counterparty does mean they are cooked really doesn't it.

Right I need to get my friend out of her Job there and into a decent bank then.

You better be quick by the look of things.....

The banks aren't exactly on a hiring spree!

Sweeping statement there chap - some very much are....

I guess my scope is limited, but for front office developers (contract), I know of only one bank that is hiring. IMO, there will come a point when the people being let got saturate the market. A lot of my old desk (credit flow trading) were let go around three months ago and I was surprised how easily they all found jobs - I'm not sure that would be the case today.

[Cheeky Jim]

Who?

[Yanto]

NoelWatson said:

Yanto said:

NoelWatson said:

Yanto said:

Mikeyboy said:

Horse_Apple said:

Mikeyboy said:

anonymous said:

[redacted]

never dealt with Koreans actually but I can imagine.

Hmm so lets say the Koreans don't go any further...
well i would hope the Debt division wasn't completely dead, there were some quality people in there. But having said that its within the trading function that most of the talent lies.

I would probably get rid of the cash equity department as it always underperformed the market.

IB I would keep but in a much smaller size, perhaps being a bit ruthless about the teams that weren't tip top performers.

other departments with which I'm much more intimate I should probably withhold comment on.

Oh and I would sell the IM divisions to raise some cash, even if it does represent almost all the value of the company.

but above all that I would hire someone like Bob Diamond (too expensive but you know what i mean?) to run the thing.

You would have a few years of pain but I think it could be made a good and very profitable business again.

ETA: hmm Enron collapsed as much throuh corrution as anyhing else. lehman's situation is not really the same.

Edited by Mikeyboy on Friday 5th September 15:18

It's pretty much dead.

Their balance sheet is now too small for most clients to be able to work with them.

They need to go in under another bank's umbrella to utilise their balance sheet.

If they remain a stand alone operation they will probably survive as long as a client doesn't massively default but they will not be what they used to be by a long shot.

They'll get taken out one way or another I reckon.

You know what the lack of trading capital behind them was something I had overlooked. Hmm that in combination with a lack of confidence in them as a counterparty does mean they are cooked really doesn't it.

Right I need to get my friend out of her Job there and into a decent bank then.

You better be quick by the look of things.....

The banks aren't exactly on a hiring spree!

Sweeping statement there chap - some very much are....

I guess my scope is limited, but for front office developers (contract), I know of only one bank that is hiring. IMO, there will come a point when the people being let got saturate the market. A lot of my old desk (credit flow trading) were let go around three months ago and I was surprised how easily they all found jobs - I'm not sure that would be the case today.

PM me...

[NoelWatson]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

"Missus does the hiring for one of the banks"

Does she work in HR or for an external resourcing company (interested as my other half is HR in an IB)?

[Horse_Apple]

Mikeyboy said:

a decent bank

Let me know when you find one and I'll contact the Guiness Book of Records

[Mikeyboy]

Horse_Apple said:

Mikeyboy said:

a decent bank

Let me know when you find one and I'll contact the Guiness Book of Records

ah decent is of course a term open to interpretation, but what I meant was one that isn't going the way of all things.

If there are any banks doing some decent hiring then can you ring my boss, tell him which ones they are and in what sectors and get him off his arse to call them?

I'm getting a bit bored you see. Both in telling him repeatedly and also with the lack of work there is at the moment in our office.

[rpguk]

Mikeyboy said:

So its share price has been shall we say, underperforming, these last few months.

So how much is it worth these days and is it worth me buying it outright when I win the Euromillions tonight?

Could I even do so?

Hope you didn't win as that £92,000,000 would be worth about ohh £41,172,839 (and 50p)today and I guess you'd be sleeping in the (no doubt marbled) dog house



Edited to add - you can actually see the small peak towards the end of Friday evening when the Bloomberg terminals scrolled "....Lehman tipped on Pistonheads...."

Sorry hindsight is very useful

Edited by rpguk on Thursday 11th September 00:54

[jeff m]

If anyone is interested this is a "Hold" from most
There is actually one pos rec.

Don't bank on a TO, more likely to be a (very) slow climb back.
Probably a better bet than GM