3m new homes not enough?
Discussion
According to an article in yesterday's Times despite the current gloom in the housing market, a paper produced by the Town and Country Planning Association claims the government target of 3m new homes by 2020 will not be enough to house our growing population.
All of which raises a number of questions;
1.) How will this even begin to work if no one is willing or able to buy new homes for the next 18 months? The report reckons new builds will fall from 170k to 120k and is unlikely to pick up for four years.
2.) Do we really need that many new homes? IIRC the USA only built 0.5m new homes last (property bubble!) year.
3.) Why on earth did they ever think that not bothering to police our borders, let alone even have a quick 'headcount' was a sensible idea?
It goes on to talk about the burgeoning population, so it may be a panic about nothing - large nubers of the projected population might just dodder off into 'care homes' (why do they always smell of cabbage and wee?), grumble off to a place in the sun, or quietly fade away.
All of which raises a number of questions;
1.) How will this even begin to work if no one is willing or able to buy new homes for the next 18 months? The report reckons new builds will fall from 170k to 120k and is unlikely to pick up for four years.
2.) Do we really need that many new homes? IIRC the USA only built 0.5m new homes last (property bubble!) year.
3.) Why on earth did they ever think that not bothering to police our borders, let alone even have a quick 'headcount' was a sensible idea?
It goes on to talk about the burgeoning population, so it may be a panic about nothing - large nubers of the projected population might just dodder off into 'care homes' (why do they always smell of cabbage and wee?), grumble off to a place in the sun, or quietly fade away.
Digga said:
According to an article in yesterday's Times despite the current gloom in the housing market, a paper produced by the Town and Country Planning Association claims the government target of 3m new homes by 2020 will not be enough to house our growing population.
All of which raises a number of questions;
1.) How will this even begin to work if no one is willing or able to buy new homes for the next 18 months? The report reckons new builds will fall from 170k to 120k and is unlikely to pick up for four years.
2.) Do we really need that many new homes? IIRC the USA only built 0.5m new homes last (property bubble!) year.
3.) Why on earth did they ever think that not bothering to police our borders, let alone even have a quick 'headcount' was a sensible idea?
It goes on to talk about the burgeoning population, so it may be a panic about nothing - large nubers of the projected population might just dodder off into 'care homes' (why do they always smell of cabbage and wee?), grumble off to a place in the sun, or quietly fade away.
How are people able to forecast anything ten years in the future with any degree of accuracy?All of which raises a number of questions;
1.) How will this even begin to work if no one is willing or able to buy new homes for the next 18 months? The report reckons new builds will fall from 170k to 120k and is unlikely to pick up for four years.
2.) Do we really need that many new homes? IIRC the USA only built 0.5m new homes last (property bubble!) year.
3.) Why on earth did they ever think that not bothering to police our borders, let alone even have a quick 'headcount' was a sensible idea?
It goes on to talk about the burgeoning population, so it may be a panic about nothing - large nubers of the projected population might just dodder off into 'care homes' (why do they always smell of cabbage and wee?), grumble off to a place in the sun, or quietly fade away.
NoelWatson said:
Digga said:
According to an article in yesterday's Times despite the current gloom in the housing market, a paper produced by the Town and Country Planning Association claims the government target of 3m new homes by 2020 will not be enough to house our growing population.
All of which raises a number of questions;
1.) How will this even begin to work if no one is willing or able to buy new homes for the next 18 months? The report reckons new builds will fall from 170k to 120k and is unlikely to pick up for four years.
2.) Do we really need that many new homes? IIRC the USA only built 0.5m new homes last (property bubble!) year.
3.) Why on earth did they ever think that not bothering to police our borders, let alone even have a quick 'headcount' was a sensible idea?
It goes on to talk about the burgeoning population, so it may be a panic about nothing - large nubers of the projected population might just dodder off into 'care homes' (why do they always smell of cabbage and wee?), grumble off to a place in the sun, or quietly fade away.
How are people able to forecast anything ten years in the future with any degree of accuracy?All of which raises a number of questions;
1.) How will this even begin to work if no one is willing or able to buy new homes for the next 18 months? The report reckons new builds will fall from 170k to 120k and is unlikely to pick up for four years.
2.) Do we really need that many new homes? IIRC the USA only built 0.5m new homes last (property bubble!) year.
3.) Why on earth did they ever think that not bothering to police our borders, let alone even have a quick 'headcount' was a sensible idea?
It goes on to talk about the burgeoning population, so it may be a panic about nothing - large nubers of the projected population might just dodder off into 'care homes' (why do they always smell of cabbage and wee?), grumble off to a place in the sun, or quietly fade away.
What maddens me is that for so many years, the immigration flood gates were wide open. Police were specifically instructed not to record or take any action where illegal immigrants were concerned. Then, about 12 months or so back, the government has this "oh s
t" moment and realises they now have absolutely no idea what the population, let alone how many undesireables have snuck into the place.
The 'extra' homes are needed in the south east of the UK. Problem is that there is huge demand there but not much land (relatively) due to the density of the existing development. With easy access to the continent of Europe (road & rail), it's the area which will continue to be in demand for the foreseeable future 
Silver993tt said:
The 'extra' homes are needed in the south east of the UK. Problem is that there is huge demand there but not much land (relatively) due to the density of the existing development. With easy access to the continent of Europe (road & rail), it's the area which will continue to be in demand for the foreseeable future
That's also true. The government needs to do something to encourage businesses away from London to spread the population more evenly. Hard to say what though. kambites said:
Silver993tt said:
The 'extra' homes are needed in the south east of the UK. Problem is that there is huge demand there but not much land (relatively) due to the density of the existing development. With easy access to the continent of Europe (road & rail), it's the area which will continue to be in demand for the foreseeable future
That's also true. The government needs to do something to encourage businesses away from London to spread the population more evenly. Hard to say what though. They also need to look seriously at major transport links - ports and airports - and question how or why the major routes are concentrated in the South East. Moving Heathrow is a good idea, but not shifting it South East onto Borris's fantasy island FFS!
kambites said:
Silver993tt said:
The 'extra' homes are needed in the south east of the UK. Problem is that there is huge demand there but not much land (relatively) due to the density of the existing development. With easy access to the continent of Europe (road & rail), it's the area which will continue to be in demand for the foreseeable future
That's also true. The government needs to do something to encourage businesses away from London to spread the population more evenly. Hard to say what though. Edited by Silver993tt on Tuesday 23 September 08:44
Digga said:
kambites said:
Silver993tt said:
The 'extra' homes are needed in the south east of the UK. Problem is that there is huge demand there but not much land (relatively) due to the density of the existing development. With easy access to the continent of Europe (road & rail), it's the area which will continue to be in demand for the foreseeable future
That's also true. The government needs to do something to encourage businesses away from London to spread the population more evenly. Hard to say what though. They also need to look seriously at major transport links - ports and airports - and question how or why the major routes are concentrated in the South East. Moving Heathrow is a good idea, but not shifting it South East onto Borris's fantasy island FFS!
Silver993tt said:
kambites said:
Silver993tt said:
The 'extra' homes are needed in the south east of the UK. Problem is that there is huge demand there but not much land (relatively) due to the density of the existing development. With easy access to the continent of Europe (road & rail), it's the area which will continue to be in demand for the foreseeable future
That's also true. The government needs to do something to encourage businesses away from London to spread the population more evenly. Hard to say what though. The housing market isn't moribund due to lack of demand, it's in this state due to sudden changes in finance followed by lack of liquidity.
We are one of the most densely populated areas of the Earth and we haven't been building enough homes for a very long time.
In the last fifty years England has gained 10 million people. At four per home that's a requirement for 50000 homes per year just for this factor. Add to this a high divorce rate, people living longer, marrying later or not at all and you need a lot more. We just haven't kept up. As a consequence the true cost of a house just goes up and up all the time. Contrary to what you might think it hasn't got better lately, it's actually got worse.
The true cost isn't just the price, which most people focus on, or even income ratio, but a combination of income ratio, market liquidity, interest rates and also the affordability of deposits. Recently the price has come down a bit but interest rates are much higher than five years ago, high inciome multiples are no longer lent at and the required deposit size has rocketed. So it's now harder than ever to actually buy a house.
Now look at the realities of 3 million new homes. Where will you put them? Which fields, woodlands, greenbelts or ancient woods will have to go? Will they be on flood plains? Where will the sewage go? Also you need all the other stuff to support the new homes such as schools, police, hospitals, business parks, motorways and shops.
A rethink of family law, tax and benefits combined with a simple "one out, one in" rule on immigration would probably have much the same effect as 3 million new homes but our government won't do anything about this.
We are one of the most densely populated areas of the Earth and we haven't been building enough homes for a very long time.
In the last fifty years England has gained 10 million people. At four per home that's a requirement for 50000 homes per year just for this factor. Add to this a high divorce rate, people living longer, marrying later or not at all and you need a lot more. We just haven't kept up. As a consequence the true cost of a house just goes up and up all the time. Contrary to what you might think it hasn't got better lately, it's actually got worse.
The true cost isn't just the price, which most people focus on, or even income ratio, but a combination of income ratio, market liquidity, interest rates and also the affordability of deposits. Recently the price has come down a bit but interest rates are much higher than five years ago, high inciome multiples are no longer lent at and the required deposit size has rocketed. So it's now harder than ever to actually buy a house.
Now look at the realities of 3 million new homes. Where will you put them? Which fields, woodlands, greenbelts or ancient woods will have to go? Will they be on flood plains? Where will the sewage go? Also you need all the other stuff to support the new homes such as schools, police, hospitals, business parks, motorways and shops.
A rethink of family law, tax and benefits combined with a simple "one out, one in" rule on immigration would probably have much the same effect as 3 million new homes but our government won't do anything about this.
Silver993tt said:
kambites said:
Silver993tt said:
The 'extra' homes are needed in the south east of the UK. Problem is that there is huge demand there but not much land (relatively) due to the density of the existing development. With easy access to the continent of Europe (road & rail), it's the area which will continue to be in demand for the foreseeable future
That's also true. The government needs to do something to encourage businesses away from London to spread the population more evenly. Hard to say what though. Edited by Silver993tt on Tuesday 23 September 08:44
tty horrible A14.Generally though, the easier and quicker transport is - whether by roal rail or air - the better any region will fare. If transport is good and the government makes some reasonable attempt to establish business and commerce outside of the South East, there is no reason for the country to rely so heavliy on the city.
IMHO other developed nations do a far better of job than us - notably the USA and Germany. France is probably the example we're headed towards if we don't reform - where there is one 'mega' city and everywhere else is provincial by comparrison.
Digga said:
According to an article in yesterday's Times despite the current gloom in the housing market, a paper produced by the Town and Country Planning Association claims the government target of 3m new homes by 2020 will not be enough to house our growing population.
All of which raises a number of questions;
1.) How will this even begin to work if no one is willing or able to buy new homes for the next 18 months? The report reckons new builds will fall from 170k to 120k and is unlikely to pick up for four years.
2.) Do we really need that many new homes? IIRC the USA only built 0.5m new homes last (property bubble!) year.
3.) Why on earth did they ever think that not bothering to police our borders, let alone even have a quick 'headcount' was a sensible idea?
It goes on to talk about the burgeoning population, so it may be a panic about nothing - large nubers of the projected population might just dodder off into 'care homes' (why do they always smell of cabbage and wee?), grumble off to a place in the sun, or quietly fade away.
Population isn't going to grow by the projected levels.All of which raises a number of questions;
1.) How will this even begin to work if no one is willing or able to buy new homes for the next 18 months? The report reckons new builds will fall from 170k to 120k and is unlikely to pick up for four years.
2.) Do we really need that many new homes? IIRC the USA only built 0.5m new homes last (property bubble!) year.
3.) Why on earth did they ever think that not bothering to police our borders, let alone even have a quick 'headcount' was a sensible idea?
It goes on to talk about the burgeoning population, so it may be a panic about nothing - large nubers of the projected population might just dodder off into 'care homes' (why do they always smell of cabbage and wee?), grumble off to a place in the sun, or quietly fade away.
In economic downturn we will have less immigration and a mild revertion to the family unit.
The greatest element of demand for housing in the last decade has not been via population growth but due to the breakdown of the familly unit. Where 2 to 3 elements of the family (children, parents, grandparents) would have historically resided in one building, the modern trend of elevated personal expectations has lead to children wanting their own home much earlier than in the past and parents wanting to keep the grandparents in their own home rather than moving them to theirs.
If we have a serious downturn there will be a reversion to these historic values and a fall in general demand for housing in comparative terms.
Add to this that many private properties in poor areas will be let out to the government once the rental market comes under strong pressure.
They're on about opening up green field sites around my way.
http://www.basingstokegazette.co.uk/display.var.24...
http://www.basingstokegazette.co.uk/display.var.24...
kambites said:
It has very little to do with increasing population and everything to do with shrinking family units. Without migration, the population would be shrinking but the number of households would still be rising dramatically.
If the government didn't make it so tough for professional families to breed then this could easily be overcome. Most of the professional people I know have only been able to take time out for 1, maybe 2 kids at the very most.Horse_Apple said:
Digga said:
Lot's of poorly informed bks.
The greatest element of demand for housing in the last decade has not been via population growth but due to the breakdown of the familly unit. Where 2 to 3 elements of the family (children, parents, grandparents) would have historically resided in one building, the modern trend of elevated personal expectations has lead to children wanting their own home much earlier than in the past and parents wanting to keep the grandparents in their own home rather than moving them to theirs.ks.Digga said:
Horse_Apple said:
Digga said:
Lot's of poorly informed bks.
The greatest element of demand for housing in the last decade has not been via population growth but due to the breakdown of the familly unit. Where 2 to 3 elements of the family (children, parents, grandparents) would have historically resided in one building, the modern trend of elevated personal expectations has lead to children wanting their own home much earlier than in the past and parents wanting to keep the grandparents in their own home rather than moving them to theirs.ks.The North/South divide is still well and truly alive. In my area, North Notts, ex mining town, the house prices were already going down this time last year. This was because so many new homes where being build around this small town and buyers had so much choice. Around 1500 homes build in the last 3 years. There are now about 3 sites that have permission for more housing, around 2500. This is in a town with about 30,000 residents.
House purchased in 2004 for £220k, valued this time last year £195k and no doubt has dropped further now. Another house exactly the same was on the market earlier this year for about 6 months at £175k and never sold. I guess we still have quite a way to go yet. I've got no complaints as the economy was booming for quite a while and it's not as if we had no warnings about the current situation.
This area will be very, very slow to pick up because as soon as the market starts improving the housebuilders currently sitting on thier land will start building again.
Back to the basics - Supply and demand.
I am lucky, it doesn't really make much difference to me as I don't have a mortgage and I have no plans to move. But maybe the next few years would be a good chance to help my step-daughter onto the property ladder.
House purchased in 2004 for £220k, valued this time last year £195k and no doubt has dropped further now. Another house exactly the same was on the market earlier this year for about 6 months at £175k and never sold. I guess we still have quite a way to go yet. I've got no complaints as the economy was booming for quite a while and it's not as if we had no warnings about the current situation.
This area will be very, very slow to pick up because as soon as the market starts improving the housebuilders currently sitting on thier land will start building again.
Back to the basics - Supply and demand.
I am lucky, it doesn't really make much difference to me as I don't have a mortgage and I have no plans to move. But maybe the next few years would be a good chance to help my step-daughter onto the property ladder.
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