Any currency traders in?
Discussion
The apparently well-informed Financial journos will make up some bulls
t on the TV that makes them appear to have a clue. (Frankly, if they had a clue, they'd be billion dollar earning traders, not journos stting themselves about losing their jobs/homes.)Edited by shadowninja on Wednesday 12th November 10:44
shadowninja said:
The apparently well-informed Financial journos will make up some bulls
t on the TV that makes them appear to have a clue. (Frankly, if they had a clue, they'd be billion dollar earning traders, not journos stting themselves about losing their jobs/homes.)I have always wondered why the experts take time out of their day to tell us all about why it is happening.
Rather than keeping everyone in the dark and raking in millions...
shadowninja said:
NoelWatson said:
Marf said:
Whats causing the Pound to tank so badly against the Yen at the moment?
UK is FUBARMarf said:
any idea when it'll bottom out and start appreciating again?
27th Feb 2012 give or take a dayNoelWatson said:
Marf said:
Whats causing the Pound to tank so badly against the Yen at the moment?
UK is FUBARMarf said:
any idea when it'll bottom out and start appreciating again?
27th Feb 2012 give or take a dayf13ldy said:
shadowninja said:
The apparently well-informed Financial journos will make up some bulls
t on the TV that makes them appear to have a clue. (Frankly, if they had a clue, they'd be billion dollar earning traders, not journos stting themselves about losing their jobs/homes.)I have always wondered why the experts take time out of their day to tell us all about why it is happening.
Rather than keeping everyone in the dark and raking in millions...
Journos say the price of XYZ has gone up because {insert half-baked reason here}. You could find out if XYZ has gone up or down by looking at various websites if you really cared.
GBP weakness has most recently been effected by the GDP contraction of .5%. Another fall in GDP and it spells official recession (does anyone really need it spelt out?). The interest rate drop made a difference but the market had already priced in a drop in interest rates already, and had reacted quite strongly to the GDP news earlier, so the response was relatively muted imo (although still a fair drop).
GBP might be oversold now though, as I think many are pricing in even more interest rate cuts. There should be strong support at the low-mid 1.40s.
GBP might be oversold now though, as I think many are pricing in even more interest rate cuts. There should be strong support at the low-mid 1.40s.
I am not a trader but dabble. For news and views this site is quite good www.dailyfx.com I don't ever look at the daily papers are they are too late on the news or off the mark (FT excepted). You really need to look at the Dollar - Yen news first then the Dollar - GDP news next.
f13ldy said:
shadowninja said:
The apparently well-informed Financial journos will make up some bulls
t on the TV that makes them appear to have a clue. (Frankly, if they had a clue, they'd be billion dollar earning traders, not journos stting themselves about losing their jobs/homes.)I have always wondered why the experts take time out of their day to tell us all about why it is happening.
Rather than keeping everyone in the dark and raking in millions...
Possibly, conceivably, there do exist some markets that you can somehow predict with better than 50% certainty. Spot FX is not one of them.
It goes up, it goes down. There is absolutely no way to work out which one is coming next.
NorthernBoy said:
f13ldy said:
shadowninja said:
The apparently well-informed Financial journos will make up some bulls
t on the TV that makes them appear to have a clue. (Frankly, if they had a clue, they'd be billion dollar earning traders, not journos stting themselves about losing their jobs/homes.)I have always wondered why the experts take time out of their day to tell us all about why it is happening.
Rather than keeping everyone in the dark and raking in millions...
Possibly, conceivably, there do exist some markets that you can somehow predict with better than 50% certainty. Spot FX is not one of them.
It goes up, it goes down. There is absolutely no way to work out which one is coming next.
maven said:
NorthernBoy said:
f13ldy said:
shadowninja said:
The apparently well-informed Financial journos will make up some bulls
t on the TV that makes them appear to have a clue. (Frankly, if they had a clue, they'd be billion dollar earning traders, not journos stting themselves about losing their jobs/homes.)I have always wondered why the experts take time out of their day to tell us all about why it is happening.
Rather than keeping everyone in the dark and raking in millions...
Possibly, conceivably, there do exist some markets that you can somehow predict with better than 50% certainty. Spot FX is not one of them.
It goes up, it goes down. There is absolutely no way to work out which one is coming next.
NoelWatson said:
Kneetrembler said:
NoelWatson said:
Marf said:
Whats causing the Pound to tank so badly against the Yen at the moment?
UK is FUBARMarf said:
any idea when it'll bottom out and start appreciating again?
27th Feb 2012 give or take a day
maven said:
What does predicting the market have to do with attempting to explain/justify what has happened in the past? What you are referring to is hindsight, not prediction. That the reporters may be guessing (and not having a clue) is a separate matter.
A lot, really. Both are about thinking that there is always an identifiable reason for moves, past or future.Sometimes there is a clear reason why a move happened, but very often, there is none. This is especially the case when the level of the move is below the level of noise, as in my example.
Of all the trading desks at work, spot FX is the one least amenable to predictions of more tan a few seconds into the future. It is also, possibly, the one where you are most likely to get a few seconds of arbitrage, but that fact is not very useful to those who do not have an automated trading system that can actually execute he two or three trades that they need to do to capture it, in under a second.
So, those in the financial know, what are your thoughts about sterling versus the US dollar at the moment? Was down at 1.47 last week, now rallying back up to the 1.50's - what are your thoughts on the trend?
Do you think we'll see the pound drop further against the dollar, or do you think all Gordy's/Darling's tinkering have shored it up and we'll see it move back to a stronger position?
Do you think we'll see the pound drop further against the dollar, or do you think all Gordy's/Darling's tinkering have shored it up and we'll see it move back to a stronger position?
Gassing Station | The Pie & Piston Archive | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff