When do you expect recovery of the property market ?
When do you expect recovery of the property market ?

Poll: When do you expect recovery of the property market ?

Total Members Polled: 108

Jan - Jun 2009: 3%
Jul - Dec 2009: 11%
Jan - Jun 2010: 19%
Jul - Dec 2010: 26%
Jan - Jun 2011: 11%
Jul - Dec 2011: 9%
Jan - Jun 2012: 6%
Jul - Dec 2012: 6%
Later: 10%
Author
Discussion

Hobo

Original Poster:

6,653 posts

277 months

Sunday 23rd November 2008
quotequote all
Seems to be a number of builders/developers on PH. As such I am interested in thier thoughts on when expected recovery times of the market.

shadowninja

80,160 posts

313 months

Sunday 23rd November 2008
quotequote all
Do the builders and developers really know? Would they really tell the truth? Would be in their interest to say the earliest option to encourage buying. Remember some estate agents saying how the houses had stopped falling about 6 months ago.

Hobo

Original Poster:

6,653 posts

277 months

Sunday 23rd November 2008
quotequote all
Don't see why the ones on here wouldn't be happy to give thier view, which is all thats being asked.

Edited by Hobo on Sunday 23 November 20:31

NoelWatson

11,710 posts

273 months

Sunday 23rd November 2008
quotequote all


Long way to go yet

cs02rm0

13,966 posts

222 months

Sunday 23rd November 2008
quotequote all
I did think this might be a relatively big drop very quickly, but Labour seem keen on dragging the whole economy down with the housing market to try and prop it up even though everyone now knows the game is up. I think we're in for at least a couple more years of falls, no idea how long after that any recovery will come...

selmahoos

694 posts

240 months

Sunday 23rd November 2008
quotequote all
I agree with fesuvious

Hobo

Original Poster:

6,653 posts

277 months

Monday 24th November 2008
quotequote all
Currently 61% think recovery before end of 2010.

NoelWatson

11,710 posts

273 months

Monday 24th November 2008
quotequote all
Hobo said:
Currently 61% think recovery before end of 2010.
Are they suffering from recent event syndrome?

Piglet

6,250 posts

286 months

Monday 24th November 2008
quotequote all
Oh my there's a lot of wishful thinking there!

I guess to some extent thought it depends what you mean by "recovery"? the end of declining prices, or prices back to a 2007 level?

IMO we'll see the economy generally making the first signs of recovery in spring 2010, it will be slowly slowly for the next year with the housing market starting to pick up during 2011.

I am hoping that the Olympics in 2012 will provide some growth to the economy and will inject some confidence. However that might well turn out to be wishful thinking of my own!

Hobo

Original Poster:

6,653 posts

277 months

Monday 24th November 2008
quotequote all
By recovery I was meaning when people actually start buying again, which ultimately is down to when banks start lending again (at decent rates).

NoelWatson

11,710 posts

273 months

Monday 24th November 2008
quotequote all
Hobo said:
By recovery I was meaning when people actually start buying again, which ultimately is down to when banks start lending again (at decent rates).
You can get a <5% 2 year fix. Is this not good value?

http://www.moneyfacts.co.uk/mortgages/bestbuys/2-y...

Hobo

Original Poster:

6,653 posts

277 months

Monday 24th November 2008
quotequote all
Not on that link you can't (well, that I can see anyway).

NoelWatson

11,710 posts

273 months

Monday 24th November 2008
quotequote all
Hobo said:
Not on that link you can't (well, that I can see anyway).
Abbey 4.79% to 2.2.11 75% £495

craig7l

1,135 posts

297 months

Monday 24th November 2008
quotequote all
"anythings value is only worth what people can afford"

In my opinion its still 30% over priced when you take into account average earnings, maximum rental yield to investment, personal debt, current interest rates and future forecasts of the economy.

How/if prices reduce is a bigger speculation as props and pillars can crumble quickly or be patched to last a while.


Scawie

331 posts

239 months

Monday 24th November 2008
quotequote all
I voted recovery for Jan-June 2010 where recovery = end of falling prices.

Hobo

Original Poster:

6,653 posts

277 months

Tuesday 25th November 2008
quotequote all
NoelWatson said:
Hobo said:
Not on that link you can't (well, that I can see anyway).
Abbey 4.79% to 2.2.11 75% £495
Sorry, thought the 5% you stated was referring to the deposit.

This is the main problem to me. Yes, it is fine for people with suitable equity in thier properties, ie the good rates are still thier, however how many 1st time buyers have 25% deposit (christ, how many have 5%). They are looking at rates of 6.5%+, if they qualify. This ultimately breaks a lot of chains.

NoelWatson

11,710 posts

273 months

Tuesday 25th November 2008
quotequote all
Hobo said:
NoelWatson said:
Hobo said:
Not on that link you can't (well, that I can see anyway).
Abbey 4.79% to 2.2.11 75% £495
Sorry, thought the 5% you stated was referring to the deposit.

This is the main problem to me. Yes, it is fine for people with suitable equity in thier properties, ie the good rates are still thier, however how many 1st time buyers have 25% deposit (christ, how many have 5%). They are looking at rates of 6.5%+, if they qualify. This ultimately breaks a lot of chains.
Considering that houses are predicted to fall by 20% in the next 12 months alone, the banks would be foolish to offer greater than 75% LTV without builing in a large risk premium. I can't see this changing for a number of years.

Hobo

Original Poster:

6,653 posts

277 months

Tuesday 25th November 2008
quotequote all
Whilst I am sure there are properties dropping 20%, even more, I think the bulk of these are simply due to the fact they were never worth the asking price to start with, ie developers who were offering huge rebates, etc, etc.

Personally I would see a drop of no more than 10% for a well built good quality home. We'll see in time though, or I definately will as a builder with a development due to start in 4 months & complete late 2010.

I do think thought that until first time buyers can borrow money at decent rates that the industry is somewhat screwed.

NoelWatson

11,710 posts

273 months

Tuesday 25th November 2008
quotequote all
Hobo said:
Whilst I am sure there are properties dropping 20%, even more, I think the bulk of these are simply due to the fact they were never worth the asking price to start with, ie developers who were offering huge rebates, etc, etc.

Personally I would see a drop of no more than 10% for a well built good quality home. We'll see in time though, or I definately will as a builder with a development due to start in 4 months & complete late 2010.

I do think thought that until first time buyers can borrow money at decent rates that the industry is somewhat screwed.
Look at the Land Reg/Halifax numbers. Prices have fallen across the board. There will be forced sellers due to massive job losses in the next couple of years. I have seen well built/good quality homes slashed by 20% in Cobham/Weybridge.

cptsideways

13,894 posts

283 months

Tuesday 25th November 2008
quotequote all
When the prices are back to where they were 8-10 years ago