Business plan question / estimating the market size

[stuthemong]

Guys&Gals.

I want to enter a business plan competition. The rules make a big song and dance about:

"You will need to clearly identify and quantify your market niche."

I can identify the niche well enough, but to quantify the market is really difficult. Lets, for the sake of argument, say I want to sell self-powered bikes that run off old socks or something. How do you go about working out the market?

You cant say, "Well 60m people in the UK would like a bike that they don't have to pedal, so if I can get 1% of them to buy it I have a market of 600,000" - that is clearly ********.

How do you *really* get a fair estimate of a market size?

I can only wave sticks, not get any real numbers. I've tried looking at keynote papers, and extrapolating from similar interest mailing list membership etc.. but I can't seem to get anything more conrete.

Any advice?

Thanks guys, I know some of you lot must do business studies

[_Voyager_]

If it is a consumer product, I would suggest a clipboard, a questionare and some free gifts. Also visit retailers and get their input. If it is a different market, you will have to expand some more.

The other thing you can do is make a small sample and try to flog them. That will tell you much more than any clipboard/chinwag.

[stuthemong]

Voyager,

Thanks. I'd actually forgotten that I was going to maybe ask 10 questions with a 0-10 importance to try and guage what features/simplicity/cost the target would deem appropriate, trying a few of the stores I'd plan to sell to.


Thanks!