Is sterling really going to tank?

[AllTorque]

Interested to hear everyone's views. I saw this response to an entertaining piece by Jeff Randall in the Telegraph, and wondered how realistic it was:

"I personally don't think Sterling will "collapse" (the recent drop against the dollar was more about the dollar than anything else), because you just have to ask what it will collapse against - the US currency (unlikely, as they are in the same position) - the Euro - (also heading into recession) - the Yen (Japan being twice as indebted as the UK)? Petro-based currencies are collapsing with the oil price. The Chinese currency should rise, but the authorities won't let it. So what's left?"

Thoughts?

[s2art]

AllTorque said:

Interested to hear everyone's views. I saw this response to an entertaining piece by Jeff Randall in the Telegraph, and wondered how realistic it was:

"I personally don't think Sterling will "collapse" (the recent drop against the dollar was more about the dollar than anything else), because you just have to ask what it will collapse against - the US currency (unlikely, as they are in the same position) - the Euro - (also heading into recession) - the Yen (Japan being twice as indebted as the UK)? Petro-based currencies are collapsing with the oil price. The Chinese currency should rise, but the authorities won't let it. So what's left?"

Thoughts?

Unfortunately the UK is in a worse position than just about anyone else. Basically the debt figures are fudged. I expect the pound to dip against all major currencies. China will not be able to buck the market forever, their currency will appreciate.

[mikelondond09]

s2art said:

AllTorque said:

Interested to hear everyone's views. I saw this response to an entertaining piece by Jeff Randall in the Telegraph, and wondered how realistic it was:

"I personally don't think Sterling will "collapse" (the recent drop against the dollar was more about the dollar than anything else), because you just have to ask what it will collapse against - the US currency (unlikely, as they are in the same position) - the Euro - (also heading into recession) - the Yen (Japan being twice as indebted as the UK)? Petro-based currencies are collapsing with the oil price. The Chinese currency should rise, but the authorities won't let it. So what's left?"

Thoughts?

Unfortunately the UK is in a worse position than just about anyone else. Basically the debt figures are fudged. I expect the pound to dip against all major currencies. China will not be able to buck the market forever, their currency will appreciate.

So if China's currency appreciates what happens to the economy ? I suspect they would be priced out and they can't afford to do that

[Puggit]

There was a program on C4 the other night about money and in particular bonds. It described what happens when a government over-borrows and inflation goes up, bonds become less valuable, and the currency bombs.

Very simplified, but describing frightening well the UK's current economic climate...

Hmmmm....

[anonymous-user]

I can envisage a dual currency in the near future. Pound for you and me, and euro for banks/trades....a fully controlled local currency....they'll get their way eventually.

[maix27]

coanda said:

I can envisage a dual currency in the near future. Pound for you and me, and euro for banks/trades....a fully controlled local currency....they'll get their way eventually.

Interesting idea, how would that work?

[s2art]

mikelondond09 said:

s2art said:

AllTorque said:

Interested to hear everyone's views. I saw this response to an entertaining piece by Jeff Randall in the Telegraph, and wondered how realistic it was:

"I personally don't think Sterling will "collapse" (the recent drop against the dollar was more about the dollar than anything else), because you just have to ask what it will collapse against - the US currency (unlikely, as they are in the same position) - the Euro - (also heading into recession) - the Yen (Japan being twice as indebted as the UK)? Petro-based currencies are collapsing with the oil price. The Chinese currency should rise, but the authorities won't let it. So what's left?"

Thoughts?

Unfortunately the UK is in a worse position than just about anyone else. Basically the debt figures are fudged. I expect the pound to dip against all major currencies. China will not be able to buck the market forever, their currency will appreciate.

So if China's currency appreciates what happens to the economy ? I suspect they would be priced out and they can't afford to do that

Just look at the rise of the dollar against the pound since WW2. That didnt price the USA out. If China can continue to beat the west on productivity they will never be 'priced out'.

[andy-xr]

Peston's said it 3 times now, and anything that gobste gets involved with goes tits

[s2art]

coyft said:

coanda said:

I can envisage a dual currency in the near future. Pound for you and me, and euro for banks/trades....a fully controlled local currency....they'll get their way eventually.

I think the Fed and the ECB already have plans for new currencies. They are just waiting for the moment to introduce them and act as our "saviours".

They may have plans....but no-one in their right mind is going to sacrifice Britains ability to set its own interest rates. And that requires the flexibility of having our own currency.

[s2art]

coyft said:

s2art said:

coyft said:

coanda said:

I can envisage a dual currency in the near future. Pound for you and me, and euro for banks/trades....a fully controlled local currency....they'll get their way eventually.

I think the Fed and the ECB already have plans for new currencies. They are just waiting for the moment to introduce them and act as our "saviours".

They may have plans....but no-one in their right mind is going to sacrifice Britains ability to set its own interest rates. And that requires the flexibility of having our own currency.

If sterling is worthless, makes no difference who sets interest rates. Look at the history of Fiat currencies, they are all doomed to failure at some point. We are getting ever closer.

Sterling becoming worthless isnt on the cards. Worth less against other major currencies, yes.

[Fittster]

s2art said:

coyft said:

s2art said:

coyft said:

coanda said:

I can envisage a dual currency in the near future. Pound for you and me, and euro for banks/trades....a fully controlled local currency....they'll get their way eventually.

I think the Fed and the ECB already have plans for new currencies. They are just waiting for the moment to introduce them and act as our "saviours".

They may have plans....but no-one in their right mind is going to sacrifice Britains ability to set its own interest rates. And that requires the flexibility of having our own currency.

If sterling is worthless, makes no difference who sets interest rates. Look at the history of Fiat currencies, they are all doomed to failure at some point. We are getting ever closer.

Sterling becoming worthless isnt on the cards. Worth less against other major currencies, yes.

In what time scales are you thinking?

[anonymous-user]

maix27 said:

coanda said:

I can envisage a dual currency in the near future. Pound for you and me, and euro for banks/trades....a fully controlled local currency....they'll get their way eventually.

Interesting idea, how would that work?

I'll be quite honest and say that I have no idea as to how it might work, or even if it could.

I arrived at that suggestion based on his seeming desire for control but also wealth. He wants to make sure he controls the populace and their remaining free cash but he also needs to remain affluent. His control will destroy the international standing of sterling so he needs somthing else for his country to tempt others into buying bonds, whilst also maintaining the business and banking sectors, which, whilst he publicly hates them, make a very large amount for his country, so must remain stable.

I am well out of my depth so this could be a worthless post! sorrry!

[JagLover]

Fittster said:

In what time scales are you thinking?

Good Point

Another 20 years of Labour could easily bring about a practically worthless currency.

[s2art]

Fittster said:

s2art said:

coyft said:

s2art said:

coyft said:

coanda said:

I can envisage a dual currency in the near future. Pound for you and me, and euro for banks/trades....a fully controlled local currency....they'll get their way eventually.

I think the Fed and the ECB already have plans for new currencies. They are just waiting for the moment to introduce them and act as our "saviours".

They may have plans....but no-one in their right mind is going to sacrifice Britains ability to set its own interest rates. And that requires the flexibility of having our own currency.

If sterling is worthless, makes no difference who sets interest rates. Look at the history of Fiat currencies, they are all doomed to failure at some point. We are getting ever closer.

Sterling becoming worthless isnt on the cards. Worth less against other major currencies, yes.

In what time scales are you thinking?

Over the next two years. Or at least until a new government comes in and puts into action a long term recovery plan.

[s2art]

JagLover said:

Fittster said:

In what time scales are you thinking?

Good Point

Another 20 years of Labour could easily bring about a practically worthless currency.

OK, thats true. But another 20 years of Labour????? The dystopia to end all dystopias.

[Fittster]

coyft said:

Fittster said:

In what time scales are you thinking?

I'm not sure on timescales, but there seems to be an inevitability about it. My best guess is within 10 years, I wouldn't be surprised if it didn't happen in the next 2 years though. It seems we are set upon a course of avoiding a deep recession/depression at all costs, including the cost of sovereign defaults.

If you wait long enough all currencies disappear.