Monday 8th December 2008

Major Marques on Death Row

Fiat boss warns sales slump may take big-brand victims

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The global slump in car sales could sound the death knell for major automotive brands including BMW, with one automotive group CEO predicting only six high volume survivors.

Fiat group boss Sergio Marchionne has told Automotive News that 24 months from now the global car making scene is likely to look very different, with survival only guaranteed for groups that can build and sell more than 5.5 million vehicles a year. Currently that means Toyota, GM, Volkswagen, Ford and Renault-Nissan, and Marchionne’s view of the new global reality is stark.

‘We’re going to end up with one American house, one German of size, one French-Japanese, one in Japan, one in China and one potential European player,’ he told AM. ‘Independence in this business is no longer sustainable’.

While bigger companies can achieve cost savings and enjoy economies of scale, smaller outfits are likely to bear the brunt of the recession.

According to AM’s analysis, brands with a large ‘family-owned’ stake are at most risk – including BMW and Peugeot-Citroen, which could be put up for sale by the Quandt and Peugeot families. Fiat is also considered vulnerable.

While some predict mergers and acquisitions as the way for European brands to survive, others are more cynical citing EC competition rules and the failure of previous ventures like Daimler’s takeover of Chrysler and the BMW Rover debacle.

[boldek1]

oh no end of the line for crap production cars....wateva will we doo

[Wammer]

This is all we need depressing news on a monday morning. Does this mean the likes of Ferrari, Mercedes, Aston Martin too name but a few doomed. These are some of the oldest car companys around. I know your going to say that Ferrari isnt as old as the rest but Enzo did work for Alfa.

[boldek1]

nah the good cars will survive credit crunch or not there's always somebody waiting to buy there first supercar

[crankedup]

Be like fridges and the old English cars of old, badge engineering.

[pagani1]

And the survivors-
Porsche Group (VWAudi Porsche Lamborghini Bugatti Bentley)
Toyota,
MercedesBMWMimiRollsRoyceCorp merged into one,
Tata Group (Tata JaguarLandRover)
NissanPeugeotCitroenRenaultCorp merged into one,
ChinaMotorCorp,
USMotorCorp (FordGMChryslerHolden merged)
FerrariMaseratiAlfaFiatLancia merged
Morgan, Atom, Caterham, Pagani, Ascari, Koeniggsegg
And the maybe's Aston Martin, Lotus, Weissman, Spyker,Farbio, McLaren.
Not quite so grim as first thought.

[bencollins]

Its grim out there. Tough times.
Shrink early and big is the key to survival, i.e. stay "ahead of the curve".

Those with multiple product platforms, warrantee payouts and above 160g CO2 are doomed.
Those that are building multi model variants from a single reliable platform and low CO2 can survive.

• IMO

[dazsmith69]

pagani1 said:

And the survivors-
Porsche Group (VWAudi Porsche Lamborghini Bugatti Bentley)
Toyota,
MercedesBMWMimiRollsRoyceCorp merged into one,
Tata Group (Tata JaguarLandRover)
NissanPeugeotCitroenRenaultCorp merged into one,
ChinaMotorCorp,
USMotorCorp (FordGMChryslerHolden merged)
FerrariMaseratiAlfaFiatLancia merged
Morgan, Atom, Caterham, Pagani, Ascari, Koeniggsegg
And the maybe's Aston Martin, Lotus, Weissman, Spyker,Farbio, McLaren.
Not quite so grim as first thought.

you forgot Honda, think theyll survive anything lol

[Boggy]

Might hold onto the Lotus for a bit longer just in case

Boggy

[wab172uk]

Maybe we should all just stop watching the news and buying Newspapers.

The media bigged up the economic/housing boom. They are now talking the world into a recession/depression.

[Sloppy]

wab172uk said:

Maybe we should all just stop watching the news and buying Newspapers.

The media bigged up the economic/housing boom. They are now talking the world into a recession/depression.

[senna007]

pagani1 said:
And the survivors-
Porsche Group (VWAudi Porsche Lamborghini Bugatti Bentley)
Toyota,
MercedesBMWMimiRollsRoyceCorp merged into one,
Tata Group (Tata JaguarLandRover)
NissanPeugeotCitroenRenaultCorp merged into one,
ChinaMotorCorp,
USMotorCorp (FordGMChryslerHolden merged)
FerrariMaseratiAlfaFiatLancia merged
Morgan, Atom, Caterham, Pagani, Ascari, Koeniggsegg
And the maybe's Aston Martin, Lotus, Weissman, Spyker,Farbio, McLaren.
Not quite so grim as first thought.
you forgot Honda, think theyll survive anything lol

Except another season in F1 apparently.

[nickpan]

for all of us that haven't had our bank balances wiped out by the credit crunch, we're perfectly positioned to buy a new car in the next few months...

I've never bought a new car but I think if there ever was a time, now is it.


Desperate car dealers combined with falling interest rates.


As for the car industry, i'm sure the well established brand names will merge/be bought/go public in an attempt to stick around.

I pity the industry. Which other industry has had to suffer a credit crunch combined with wave of green thinking which is threatening the value of their current/future stock?

[oagent]

Goodbye to all the medium size car making groups and their dull homogenous brands. To get through this, you will need to be the only big player left selling your cars at very small margins, or very small, offering bespoke toys to the few remaining rich. I see a bright future for Toyota and Morgan!
The very big ones could make extra savings by reducing the different brandings. i.e. why incur extra marketing/production/legal costs selling the same car with subtle trim and badge variations. The seat leon/vw golf/audi a3 etc. I think car makers will have to abandon their less profitable models in favor of concerntrating all their efforts on 1 or 2 cars that will sustain them through the bad times. At this time the ideal car to have in your product line up is something like the BMW 3 series. All things to all men (and women). Coupe/estate/saloon/convertable. 1.6 to 3+ litre, etc all on the same platform.
Expect the base models to go down in price, a return to the days where the radio is an optional extra etc. Anything to get that head line price down.

[Jonny671]

We don't get told about anything to do with the actual Company, Mazda.. Even though we're a franchise.

I wonder how their doing, you never hear them mentioned in anything about the Credit Crunch.

[LooseCannon]

Sloppy said:

wab172uk said:

Maybe we should all just stop watching the news and buying Newspapers.

The media bigged up the economic/housing boom. They are now talking the world into a recession/depression.

Double double

[tridave]

oagent said:

Goodbye to all the medium size car making groups and their dull homogenous brands. To get through this, you will need to be the only big player left selling your cars at very small margins, or very small, offering bespoke toys to the few remaining rich. I see a bright future for Toyota and Morgan!
The very big ones could make extra savings by reducing the different brandings. i.e. why incur extra marketing/production/legal costs selling the same car with subtle trim and badge variations. The seat leon/vw golf/audi a3 etc. I think car makers will have to abandon their less profitable models in favor of concerntrating all their efforts on 1 or 2 cars that will sustain them through the bad times. At this time the ideal car to have in your product line up is something like the BMW 3 series. All things to all men (and women). Coupe/estate/saloon/convertable. 1.6 to 3+ litre, etc all on the same platform.
Expect the base models to go down in price, a return to the days where the radio is an optional extra etc. Anything to get that head line price down.

Think you may be a bit badge blind - should of read 'all things to all cocks' or has that title gone to the Audi driver

[dhutch]

LooseCannon said:

Sloppy said:

wab172uk said:

Maybe we should all just stop watching the news and buying Newspapers.

The media bigged up the economic/housing boom. They are now talking the world into a recession/depression.

Double double

Triple Triple Triple

[corcoran]

I'm not slating PH.com's coverage OF this story; but there is no way this is going to happen..

[MGR]

tridave said:

oagent said:

Goodbye to all the medium size car making groups and their dull homogenous brands. To get through this, you will need to be the only big player left selling your cars at very small margins, or very small, offering bespoke toys to the few remaining rich. I see a bright future for Toyota and Morgan!
The very big ones could make extra savings by reducing the different brandings. i.e. why incur extra marketing/production/legal costs selling the same car with subtle trim and badge variations. The seat leon/vw golf/audi a3 etc. I think car makers will have to abandon their less profitable models in favor of concerntrating all their efforts on 1 or 2 cars that will sustain them through the bad times. At this time the ideal car to have in your product line up is something like the BMW 3 series. All things to all men (and women). Coupe/estate/saloon/convertable. 1.6 to 3+ litre, etc all on the same platform.
Expect the base models to go down in price, a return to the days where the radio is an optional extra etc. Anything to get that head line price down.

Think you may be a bit badge blind - should of read 'all things to all cocks' or has that title gone to the Audi driver

Stop quoting Clarkson. His opinion is hardly fact now is it. Why are you a cock if you buy/own a BMW ? In many areas/segments they are the class leaders esp if you enjoy driving and esp the M cars.

Edited by MGR on Monday 8th December 13:43

[havoc]

What a sensationalist load of tripe!

Yes, the weaker firms WILL go to the wall, but weakness has nothing to do with volume (look at the big 3 US mfrs - 3 out of the top-5 globally yet haemorraging money!), and all to do with cashflow in the short-term and profit in the long-term.

So, my 2p:-
- At least one if not two of the US big-3 will go under, or, more likely, get bought out by someone else and re-invented as far as the unions will permit.
- 'yota and Honda will survive largely untroubled in Japan.
- Subaru and Mitsubishi have large non-auto arms to support them if need be.
- Renault/Nissan will be the biggest potential EU casualty.
- Porsche-VAG will be fine.
- Mercedes and BMW may have to merge (either with each other or someone else), or at the very least start serious component-sharing.
- PSA will survive, although possibly with some state assistance in some form (yes, I know that's strictly forbidden under EU rules).

dazsmith69 said:

you forgot Honda, think theyll survive anything lol

Perfectly sound.