OPEC - Biggest Production Cut Ever
OPEC - Biggest Production Cut Ever
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Discussion

Jimbeaux

Original Poster:

33,791 posts

260 months

Wednesday 17th December 2008
quotequote all
Oil will go up on speculation alone. How high will it go and how long will it stay up? What are PH's opinions?

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,468284,00.html

Edited by Jimbeaux on Wednesday 17th December 14:52

Skipppy

1,136 posts

239 months

Wednesday 17th December 2008
quotequote all
Headline here ( http://www.ft.com/home/us ) is that oil is falling due to the market believing the cut will not be enacted.

Jimbeaux

Original Poster:

33,791 posts

260 months

Wednesday 17th December 2008
quotequote all
Skipppy said:
Headline here ( http://www.ft.com/home/us ) is that oil is falling due to the market believing the cut will not be enacted.
That is an interesting speculation, and not without precedence. OPEC wants to strike a balance between raising prices but not causing their customers to fall deeper into recession, thus, consuming less oil. My guess is that after and initial bump, prices will continue to slide.

Jimbeaux

Original Poster:

33,791 posts

260 months

Wednesday 17th December 2008
quotequote all
The cut has been announced as 2.2m / day.

Mc Lovin

5,588 posts

250 months

Wednesday 17th December 2008
quotequote all
bds!!!

Jimbeaux

Original Poster:

33,791 posts

260 months

Wednesday 17th December 2008
quotequote all
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Exactly. That is what various articles are saying about other oil nations as well. Many agree upon a cut then cheat around it. Not an uncommon practice.



Edited by Jimbeaux on Wednesday 17th December 17:31

Raffles

1,931 posts

259 months

Wednesday 17th December 2008
quotequote all
We do desperatly need a higher oil price. It's become uneconomical to drill in most of the non-OPEC countries. If the barrel price stays below like $45 for three years the industry in these countries will be ruined because of a lack of maintinance in the infastructure.

It would benefit us all if the price goes up, it would bring at least a little energy security for a little longer. When OPEC are the only producers, which will be the result of a low oil price, the word's energy security will be fked.

Edited by Raffles on Wednesday 17th December 17:31

Scraggles

7,619 posts

253 months

Wednesday 17th December 2008
quotequote all
even if they drop production by that much, close to half way thru the winter and with the time it takes to ship the oil to the market, could be spring by the time it hits, just in time for warmer weather..

Jimbeaux

Original Poster:

33,791 posts

260 months

Wednesday 17th December 2008
quotequote all
Raffles said:
We do desperatly need a higher oil price. It's become uneconomical to drill in most of the non-OPEC countries. If the barrel price stays below like $45 for three years the industry in these countries will be ruined because of a lack of maintinance in the infastructure.

It would benefit us all if the price goes up, it would bring at least a little energy security for a little longer. When OPEC are the only producers, which will be the result of a low oil price, the word's energy security will be fked.

Edited by Raffles on Wednesday 17th December 17:31
My state, being a large oil producer, would like a higher price to help our budgets, but that would raise fuel costs. Double edged sword sort of.

tinman0

18,231 posts

269 months

Wednesday 17th December 2008
quotequote all
Jimbeaux said:
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Exactly. That is what various articles are saying about other oil nations as well. Many agree upon a cut then cheat around it. Not an uncommon practice.
There were several sanctimonious Russians on tv last night (BBC America News) who were complaining about the low oil prices and how it was hurting them, like its some sort of right to rip the West off. I didn't have much sympathy.

toppstuff

13,698 posts

276 months

Wednesday 17th December 2008
quotequote all
For reasons already posted here, I don't think OPEC has as much impact on the oil price as they think.

The implosion of the global economy and the destruction of the dollar are forces too powerful to stop oil prices sliding IMO.

Raffles

1,931 posts

259 months

Wednesday 17th December 2008
quotequote all
Jimbeaux said:
Raffles said:
We do desperatly need a higher oil price. It's become uneconomical to drill in most of the non-OPEC countries. If the barrel price stays below like $45 for three years the industry in these countries will be ruined because of a lack of maintinance in the infastructure.

It would benefit us all if the price goes up, it would bring at least a little energy security for a little longer. When OPEC are the only producers, which will be the result of a low oil price, the word's energy security will be fked.

Edited by Raffles on Wednesday 17th December 17:31
My state, being a large oil producer, would like a higher price to help our budgets, but that would raise fuel costs. Double edged sword sort of.
Yeah the fluctuating oil price affect you guys a lot more. As we have the duty on the fuel it acts as a buffer, protecting us from the huge peaks and troughs.

I think a high oil price is worth the cost, just to keep the non-OPEC countries in business.

10 Pence Short

32,880 posts

246 months

Wednesday 17th December 2008
quotequote all
As far as I'm aware Russia geared pretty much the whole of its economic policy on the oil price being at least $75. At the moment they are slightly screwed.

elster

17,517 posts

239 months

Wednesday 17th December 2008
quotequote all
tinman0 said:
Jimbeaux said:
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Exactly. That is what various articles are saying about other oil nations as well. Many agree upon a cut then cheat around it. Not an uncommon practice.
There were several sanctimonious Russians on tv last night (BBC America News) who were complaining about the low oil prices and how it was hurting them, like its some sort of right to rip the West off. I didn't have much sympathy.
I know it is not as if the west do the opposite on everything else. Those evil russians trying to make money....damn you.

Edited by elster on Wednesday 17th December 17:39

tinman0

18,231 posts

269 months

Wednesday 17th December 2008
quotequote all
anonymous said:
[redacted]
The way I look at it, Russia is screwed one way or another. When they had the spat with the Ukraine over gas, it affected Germany, and now the Germans (and EU) are looking at alternatives to Russian fuel. Russia seems more and more incapable of stepping to the front of world affairs in a sensible way. Instead it takes a hammer to crack a nut, thinking that they look powerful on the world stage when just come across of brutish thugs who are incapable of rational thought.

10 Pence Short

32,880 posts

246 months

Wednesday 17th December 2008
quotequote all
anonymous said:
[redacted]
hehe

Such a shame. Nice to see a good Korma in action.

sleep envy

62,260 posts

278 months

Wednesday 17th December 2008
quotequote all
10 Pence Short said:
Nice to see a good Korma in action.
personally, I prefer to see a good kharai

toppstuff

13,698 posts

276 months

Wednesday 17th December 2008
quotequote all
This is like an episode of Spooks as far as conspiracy theories are concerned, but I would not bet against some of the following things happening:

-a major terror attack on the US or EU

- unrest in Asia

-arab / israeli relations getting worse.

-something dodgy out of north Korea.


Any or a combination of these events would further delay a economc recovery, but it would also spike the oil price. And there are plenty of vested interests to see that happen.

I expect enough bad things to happen to push up the oil price without breaking the west.

And the Russians will be there somewhere.

Jimbeaux

Original Poster:

33,791 posts

260 months

Wednesday 17th December 2008
quotequote all
toppstuff said:
For reasons already posted here, I don't think OPEC has as much impact on the oil price as they think.

The implosion of the global economy and the destruction of the dollar are forces too powerful to stop oil prices sliding IMO.
Actually, the Dollar has been rising, which is one of the factors contributing to the decrease in oil prices.

toppstuff

13,698 posts

276 months

Wednesday 17th December 2008
quotequote all
Jimbeaux said:
toppstuff said:
For reasons already posted here, I don't think OPEC has as much impact on the oil price as they think.

The implosion of the global economy and the destruction of the dollar are forces too powerful to stop oil prices sliding IMO.
Actually, the Dollar has been rising, which is one of the factors contributing to the decrease in oil prices.
Not sure the dollar rising is going to carry on long IMO. But then I'm usually wrong !