Crystal ball at the ready - When will the "downturn" end?
Discussion
Crystal balls at the ready 
How and when do people see the current "downturn" coming to an end?
Countries can only cut their base rate as far as zero and it doesnt look like reaching that point will take very long. At this point, thousands of people will possibly start enjoying the benefit of their reduced mortgage payments and start spending again - or will they??
How and when do people see the current "downturn" coming to an end?Countries can only cut their base rate as far as zero and it doesnt look like reaching that point will take very long. At this point, thousands of people will possibly start enjoying the benefit of their reduced mortgage payments and start spending again - or will they??
Goochie said:
Crystal balls at the ready How and when do people see the current "downturn" coming to an end?
Countries can only cut their base rate as far as zero and it doesnt look like reaching that point will take very long. At this point, thousands of people will possibly start enjoying the benefit of their reduced mortgage payments and start spending again - or will they??
The Germans are describing what the Americans have done with the interest rate as "trying to put out a fire by adding petrol", so I reckon it may be a while yet! How and when do people see the current "downturn" coming to an end?Countries can only cut their base rate as far as zero and it doesnt look like reaching that point will take very long. At this point, thousands of people will possibly start enjoying the benefit of their reduced mortgage payments and start spending again - or will they??
scotal said:
plasticpig said:
I reckon we will have 10 years of stagnation after that.
That's the bit that worries me. Particularly if GB fools enough mouthbreathers into voting him in for another term. plasticpig said:
I suspect the downturn will end by mid 2010. I reckon we will have 10 years of stagnation after that.
Agreed on the mid 2010 thing, but fear it could be a lot longer. We have been over doing it a bit on property prices for at least the last five years.Once credit begins to move more freely, which I suspect is some way off as banks will be concentrating on repaying (buying back preference shares) money borrowed, then the housing market should start to move, but hopefully not in a silly way as banks will be more cautious.
That is estimated to take three to five years, people will have little to do with their spare cash as interest rates will remain low, so in thoery will repay debt and once that is clear will spend.
Potential problems are inflation as a result of a weak pound (and possibly a next resort of printing more cash), but rest assured the Euro-zone will have to join in the interest rate cuts and that will reverse the pounds fortunes, Spain, Italyy and France are all in trouble and so is Germany.
But being a bit positive it seems to me the only poeple that benefited in the last 5-10years of madness was the Square Mile and the Government.
we will be better off over the next few months as interest rate cuts start to translate into extra money in our pockets (as long as we are able to work), the sooner we spend the better otherwise we could spiral down and there would then possibly be a massive crash and huge job losses.
PS When are the cheaper wholesale gas and electic prices going to filter through...they have in the US, why not here?
scotal said:
plasticpig said:
I reckon we will have 10 years of stagnation after that.
That's the bit that worries me. Particularly if GB fools enough mouthbreathers into voting him in for another term. RJE1966 said:
But being a bit positive it seems to me the only poeple that benefited in the last 5-10years of madness was the Square Mile and the Government.
I agree with a lot of what you are saying. Mid 2010 looks likely, but we'll get a good feel by mid 2009 as that is when equity markets are expected to start picking up and they preceed the general movements, so it'll be good if/when they doHowever to say that the square mile and government are the only people to benefit is frankly garbage. You need to compare what people have now compared to 10 years ago and 20 years ago. Everyone is spending on broadband, flat screen TV's, Sky HD (600,000 customer apparently and they aren't all in the square mile). There has been huge growth across the country, just look at the development that has gone into major city centres over the last ten years or so and the incredilbly affluent people that have made the most of it are also in other parts of the country.
I'm not saying what has happened is right or a good thing, only that the whole country has, in some shape or form, benefited
We went into the 'crash' very fast and I think we'll come out just as fast when it starts... I just hope that things level off before they get silly and we crash quickly again.
I reckon things will start to improve in Q2 2009 and hopefully level out somewhere sensible during, or just before Q1 2010.
I reckon things will start to improve in Q2 2009 and hopefully level out somewhere sensible during, or just before Q1 2010.
john_r said:
We went into the 'crash' very fast and I think we'll come out just as fast when it starts... I just hope that things level off before they get silly and we crash quickly again.
I reckon things will start to improve in Q2 2009 and hopefully level out somewhere sensible during, or just before Q1 2010.
+1I reckon things will start to improve in Q2 2009 and hopefully level out somewhere sensible during, or just before Q1 2010.
Hoppy2008 said:
john_r said:
We went into the 'crash' very fast and I think we'll come out just as fast when it starts... I just hope that things level off before they get silly and we crash quickly again.
I reckon things will start to improve in Q2 2009 and hopefully level out somewhere sensible during, or just before Q1 2010.
+1I reckon things will start to improve in Q2 2009 and hopefully level out somewhere sensible during, or just before Q1 2010.
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