Pound vs. Euro

[AJS-]

What does anyone think will happen to the pound/euro exchange rate in the next few months? And why?

My parents live in France and want to change some over from Pounds to Euros. I'm fairly convinced the Pound will go lower long term, but since it's back up again this week it would be a shame to change it now if it goes back up significantly higher in the next few months.

I know no-one has crystal ball, but you may well have a better idea than me!

[Crusoe]

riots, countries defaulting, mass unemployment, possibly the break off of a few weaker euro countries as the Germans aren't going to bail them out. Euro might plummet short term.

[Dakkon]

The pound is bouncing back against the Euro as we speak, I would not bet long term on a low pound.

[Igg]

It's a guess, but I would think the Pound should be about 1.20 to the Euro summer onwards - why, well apart from the qualification that it's a guess! Eurozone is looking less attractive by the day with Ireland, Spain, Italy, Greece and Portuguese economies looking poor, France not doing much better and even the powerhouse Germany in recession. UK is up the creek too, but I think that's already been over-factored in and the Pound should bounce while the Euro weakens.

Well, I hope so, as we buy all our goods in Euros and sell in Pounds, so here's hoping my guess is right!

[nonplussed]

Igg said:

UK is up the creek too, but I think that's already been over-factored in and the Pound should bounce while the Euro weakens.

This makes a lot of sense to me as an argument, but I guess the reality is "f*ck knows..."

[laingy]

Euro will weaken as all the 'growth' countries in euro zone - spain, ireland etc who lived off a property boom unravel and the German's arent willing to support them.

[Welshbeef]

laingy said:

Euro will weaken as all the 'growth' countries in euro zone - spain, ireland etc who lived off a property boom unravel and the German's arent willing to support them.

Just seen on bbc24 that in Ireland the expected umemployed in 2009 will be 9.6%!!

Frankly for the best part of 5 years the Euro has been c1.5:£1 now were looking at sub 1.1:£1, I'd say its a good price now - it might get better or worse but your pretty near the bottom (maybe missed it/already past or maybe we have not yet met it). One thing to note - the US led the recession then much later the UK has ... the Eurozone really doesnt look good - they are all keeping quiet about their problems so we could see the Euro really collapse - then again maybe not.

The interest rate cuts were led by the states then the UK and now the ECB so the trends are there & unemployment is rocketing.

If it were me I'd be happy with the current position - lets say they had E20k to move over well at 1.5:£1 that would have been £13k but today its £18k I'd be happy with that.

Or you could get them to change half the money they intend to change over basically your then decreasing the risk & decreasing the reward of currency movements.

[shirt]

there's only one way to settle this.



fiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight!